Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 231138
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
638 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A persistent band of moderate to heavy rainfall has resulted in
an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours in a
band from SW to NE across the forecast area. The flash flood
watch will be allowed to continue with additional heavy rainfall
expected this afternoon and possibly through early Saturday.

The approach of Cindy`s mid-level trough will foster the
development of numerous showers and storms particularly along and
northwest of I-59 later today. As the remnants of Cindy recurve
toward the northeast and become absorbed into mid-latitude
westerlies, a strong wind field will remain in place across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures rising into the 80s with
dewpoints in the mid 70s could produce SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
Hodographs will be enlarged by southerly surface winds
increasing to 40-50kt at 850mb from the southwest. This
environment should yield supercell structures capable of producing
a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds will also be possible
with any bowing segments. Saturated soil conditions will also
contribute to a potential for downed trees with sub-severe winds.

As the remnants of Cindy zip off to the east, an upper-level
trough will push a cold front southward tonight. Additional
convective development is expected along the front, and the Flash
Flood Watch could be extended into early Saturday if conditions
warrant. The front and associated rain chances will continue
moving southward on Sunday as a stronger push of northerly flow
arrives, and the forecast area should have a chance to dry out
through Tuesday.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Ceilings are currently MVFR at most locations except for ANB/ASN,
and should improve to VFR later this morning due to daytime
heating. High res models are in fairly good agreement on the
timing of the next band of tropical showers moving from west to
east this afternoon across the northern sites, with less coverage
towards the southern sites, as TD Cindy moves through TN. Thunder
will be more isolated due to the tropical air mass. Additional
showers will be possible after 6Z tonight ahead of a cold front,
as well as the potential for ceilings to lower to IFR. Southerly
winds will gust to around 20-25 kts today due to the pressure
gradient associated with Cindy.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue through Saturday with rain chances
decreasing for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front. There are
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  72  83  65  83 /  70  90  50  20  10
Anniston    87  72  82  67  82 /  50  80  60  20  10
Birmingham  85  73  82  66  83 /  80  80  60  20  10
Tuscaloosa  85  73  83  67  85 /  80  80  60  20  10
Calera      86  73  83  68  83 /  70  80  70  30  10
Auburn      87  73  83  69  82 /  30  50  80  30  20
Montgomery  89  75  86  72  85 /  30  50  80  40  20
Troy        89  75  86  71  85 /  20  40  80  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Coosa...Etowah...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marengo...Marion...Perry...
Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

&&

$$



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