Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241720
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1220 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Feels like I have made this first statement everyday this week,
rain showers are once again moving into the area from the west.
Today`s rain is brought to you by a shortwave moving along the
base of the eastern CONUS trough. This shortwave is sliding
eastward through the area and will drag the cold front along the
Mississippi River that stretches to a surface low in Indiana along
with it. By 9 to 10 AM the leading edge of the showers and storms
should be near or just east of the I-65 corridor. This is where
things get extremely complicated and will likely require a
mesoscale analysis as we get closer to the timeframe of concern.
For now we will go with the main area of concern for areas east of
I-65 from 9 AM to 3 PM. Models are hinting that that the 10 AM to
1 PM window would be the highest chances for any severe weather
at all as we get into better heating of the day. Damaging winds
will be the primary concern with any storm through the early
afternoon in the east. Really looks like the better dynamics and
timing will be just to our east but there is enough of a chance
to continue the mention of severe in the HWO.

By 2 to 3 PM we should see this first wave with the front pushing
out and then additional showers and isolated storms move back
into the area from the west. This will be associated with the
upper low itself as it begins to move through the area. The upper
low will be slow to move through but should be just to our east by
Thursday morning. Until then scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible for the entire area after 12 PM.
Severe weather is not expected with the upper low. Activity will
decrease after Midnight, but isolated showers can not be ruled
out.

16

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

We could have some lingering clouds in the northeast on Thursday
morning and possibly some drizzle, but most of the rain should
have exited the area to the east and we can briefly dry out
through at least Friday. Temperatures will be cool on Thursday
behind the front then will begin to warm again on Friday.

An approaching front will move closer to the area on Saturday. So
with the increase in temperatures and increase in moisture those
summer time thunderstorms will once again develop and impact a good
portion of the area as the front tries to drape into the area over
the weekend. Those discrepancies that existed yesterday with the
timing of the models remain especially from Tuesday onward. Once
again the GFS tries to clear the front on through while the Euro
stalls it out. So what happens after Tuesday is still up in the
air but at this point would side on the side of the Euro as it
handled this past event fairly well by stalling the front and
keeping the area moist. More on that in the upcoming days.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Surface low pressure analyzed over east-central Tennessee will
pull northeast this evening while an upper level low over the
central Ohio River Valley will continue moving northeast. Expect
isolated shower activity at most terminals this afternoon and
evening with improving conditions at MGM/TOI. Elsewhere, lingering
showers and possibly a thunderstorm may develop across the
northern sites due to the arrival of cold air aloft but potential
is too low to mention. Outside of showers expect VFR conditions
with breezy west winds becoming northwest tonight.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of
Central Alabama as a cold front moves through today and then an
upper low slides through tonight. A few strong to isolated severe
storms are possible through early afternoon across the eastern
half of the area. Rain free and cooler conditions are expected on
Thursday. Conditions will warm for Friday with rain chances
returning by the weekend. Critical fire weather are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  74  53  85  64 /  50  10   0   0  10
Anniston    53  74  55  85  64 /  50  10   0   0  10
Birmingham  54  76  58  87  68 /  50  10   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  52  77  58  88  67 /  40   0   0   0  10
Calera      53  76  58  87  67 /  50   0   0   0  10
Auburn      54  73  57  84  65 /  40  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  79  58  89  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Troy        54  78  58  88  64 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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