Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 301123
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
For 12Z Aviation.
Today and Tonight.
We remain in a bubble of high pressure, trapped between two systems.
The first is a fairly large trough that is place across the Plains.
This trough continues to generate MCS after MCS for the last several
days. The second is Tropical Depression Bonnie that is currently
meandering near Charleston, South Carolina and will continue nearby
for at least the next 24 hours. Looking at water vapor this morning,
there is an increase in overall energy over the area. This combined
with very warm afternoon temperatures, a few isolated showers/storms
could develop across portions of the area. At this time it looks
like the best moisture will be in the east, or generally along and
east of I-65. Any showers/storms dissipate by sunset along with the
loss of the daytime heating. Not much of change in the environment
will allow lows to bottom out tonight about where they are right
Tuesday through Sunday.
Central Alabama will continue to be under the influence of weak
subsidence on Tuesday on the back side of remnants of tropical
system Bonnie. There will be a gradual increase in mid level
moisture on Tuesday from west to east, but only isolated storms
expected during the afternoon with temperatures well above normal.
The upper ridge will begin to break by Wednesday as a short wave
trof moves into the Plains states and pushes an upper trof axis
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Rain chances will not
dramatically increase due to weak flow and lift to the south of
the trof axis. The upper trof axis will become nearly stationary
near the Alabama and Tennessee state line due to a cut-off low
over Texas. This pattern will not bring significant rainfall to
central Alabama during the period, but there will be chances of
rain every day. The upper trof axis and cloud cover will help
bring daytime temperatures back closer to normal values Thursday
12Z TAF Discussion.
Other than a brief period of MVFR and BR for a few spots, VFR
conditions prevail. Central Alabama will remain between a low
pressure area in the Carolinas and a high over the Ohio River
Valley. Winds will be out of the northwest around 7kts by the
afternoon, and will be light at night.
Look for only low to minimal rain chances through the middle of
the week with above normal temperatures. Rain chances will
increase after Wednesday as ab upper trof axis pushes slowly
southward into north Alabama. There are no fire weather concerns
at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 90 64 90 61 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
Anniston 89 66 91 65 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
Birmingham 91 69 91 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
Tuscaloosa 91 68 92 66 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
Calera 90 68 91 68 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
Auburn 89 69 89 68 91 / 20 10 10 10 20
Montgomery 93 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10 20
Troy 93 68 92 65 93 / 20 10 10 10 20