Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 222041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW HAS MOVED AWAY AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED
OR ENDED.  ATTENTION TURNS TO THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL BAND THAT WILL
WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.  SYSTEM WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OREGON ZONES...
ESPECIALLY ELKHORN MOUNTAINS IN BAKER COUNTY.  SERN-MOST OREGON
ZONES AND SRN IDAHO ZONES WILL STAY DRY.  INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OREGON ZONES AND MOUNTAINS IN
IDAHO...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN THE SNAKE BASIN.  WEAKENING FRONTAL
BAND WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH.  RIDGING WILL BRING CLEARING AND WARMING
TO OUR ZONES TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD 80S
WILL OCCUR...WITH LOWER 90S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
KEEPING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
FRIDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...AND COOL
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT DECREASES AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING
THE TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION...AS WELL AS CONSISTENT
IN ITS TIMING...HOWEVER THE 12Z EC MODEL RUN NO LONGER DEEPENS THE
TROUGH AS IT HAD BEFORE AND MOVES IT MUCH FASTER TOWARDS THE EAST.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT WE WILL BE WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR REGION INTO MONDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A KREO-KEUL-KJER LINE...DECREASING FROM
THE SOUTH AND ENDING BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE
10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT


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