Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 262205
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT AND INTO OREGON
TOMORROW...THEN INTO NRN CA AND NW NV FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ON INTO CENTRAL CA SATURDAY. AS IT DOES THIS...MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR WILL BE BROUGHT OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AT ALL BUT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN THERE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY MAINLY TO OUR WEST...ENERGY
WILL SWING EAST AND PASS OVER. THERE WILL BE A PIVOT POINT AT
WHICH THIS ENERGY STALLS BEFORE MOVING BACK AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PIVOT POINT...WHICH
IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A LINE THAN A POINT...WILL BE OVER THE OWYHEE
MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE OWYHEES TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...AND SO WE HAVE ISSUED ONE FROM
NOON TOMORROW THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVEL IN SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THE EXACT DETAILS OF
WHERE THE PIVOT POINT...OR LINE...DEVELOPS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE MUCH IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT.
IF LATER FORECASTS INDICATE MORE SNOW IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS...
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WOULD BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY...FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS SATURDAY. READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT OWING TO CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A CONTINUING COLD
PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY DIGGING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY JET PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...BETWEEN SEPARATE AREAS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
AS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS...
4K-5K FT MSL. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS...
NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     IDZ029.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT


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