Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 042103
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N 132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
IN OREGON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND BOISE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/JS
AVIATION.....JS



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