Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 281521
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY FOR A WHILE. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND GUSTY WINDS.  FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE ERN
PACIFIC AND HAS A DISTINCT WAVE.  THE WAVE WILL GO NORTH...AND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION IS THE PART THAT WILL COME THROUGH OUR AREA.
MODELS AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT WIND IN SERN OREGON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.  NOT AS WINDY ELSEWHERE.  MODELS HAVE
A WIDE VARIETY OF POPS THAT WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT.  MET AND
SREF ARE QUITE DRY WHILE MAV AND GFS POPS ARE WET.  ALSO...MET POPS
ARE HIGHEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE MAV POPS ARE HIGHEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOPEFULLY 12Z MODELS WILL BE MORE CONSISTENT.  NO
UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIOANL MVFR FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF A KBNO-KSNT LINE. SLIGHT CHANGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...BUT AFTER 29/18Z INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...SW 10-15 KTS...
THEN BY 29/12Z SSW 35-50 KTS...THEN DECREASING AFTER 30/00Z TO
20-25 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS WITH PASSING CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER AND LOW LAYERS
REMAIN RATHER DRY...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO LATE TODAY AND WITH A FRONT
LATE TONIGHT /CENTRAL OREGON/ AND SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SE TO SW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON
TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND BRING GUSTY SW TO W WINDS ACROSS OREGON SATURDAY AND SW IDAHO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY FORM ON
THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY ACROSS S-CENTRAL IDAHO WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A
SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY ACROSS BAKER COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
PATCHY SMOKE ELSEWHERE WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER MIXED OUT
DUE TO MORE WIND AND DEEPER MIXING AHEAD OF AND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT
AIR STAGNATION....VM



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