Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 310943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
343 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Current satellite pics
showing a vort max off the central California coast early this
morning with models moving this system northeast over the
forecast area today. Current model runs hinting at some light
precipitation with this vort max as it moves over the forecast
area, but looking at current radars near the vort max, do not see
any precipitation hitting the ground and observations showing mid
and high level clouds, so decided to take out any mention of
precipitation this morning. As this vort max moves northeast
models showing isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
over Southern Twin Falls county and extreme eastern border of the
West Central and Boise Mountains. Again today, high temperatures
will be the forecast challenge. The vort max will bring clouds to
the region and that will keep high temperatures down. Dry
conditions tonight and Thursday as flow aloft shifts from
southwest to south as a long wave trough moves into the west
coast. Temperatures Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...A cold front will move
through the region on Friday morning. Precipitation will be confined
generally north of a line from Burns to Ontario to Stanley.
Temperatures will lower around 15 degrees from Thursday, with low to
mid 70s in the Snake Plain and 50s and 60s in the mountains, or
around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Cool northwesterly flow will
continue through the extended period with generally dry conditions
expected after Saturday. Precipitation will stay north of our
forecast area in WA and northern ID. Temperatures will remain 5 to
10 degrees below normal.


.AVIATION...Generally VFR with smoke layers. BKN mid to high
clouds with virga. Sprinkles possible across the region. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon south and east
of KTWF. Areas of MVFR/IFR near Pioneer and Rail Fires. Surface
winds: light winds becoming SW 5-15kt this afternoon, except light
winds in the Treasure and Magic Valleys. Winds aloft at 10KFT MSL:
SW 20-30kt becoming SW 5-15kt by 00z/Thu.





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