Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 241545
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS DEEPEST
THERE AND ANOTHER IMPULSE IS MOVING SOUTH FROM NRN IDAHO. MADE
SOME CHANGES TO POP AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
INCREASED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS SW IDAHO WILL INCREASE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS 12KT OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHERLY 5-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHOWERS IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND PATCHY FOG IN
OUR NRN VALLEYS THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW IN UTAH WILL
MOVE TO WYOMING TODAY...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN IDAHO ZONES. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS...AS IT WAS SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REST OF WESTERN
IDAHO AND MALHEUR AND BAKER COUNTIES IN OREGON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END BY SUNSET AND ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LOW FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO WASHINGTON WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER OUR CWA. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY THEN 1-3 DEGS
WARMER MONDAY. MILD AND MOIST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S /AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA



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