Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040226
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. A
FEW ECHOES HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR IN THE OREGON ZONES...HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THE RH VALUES ARE IN THE 20S AND 30 AT BEST...THERE IS
LIKELY NO PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND THERE ARE NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST IDAHO TONIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OREGON SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND
OWYHEE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST 10 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHERLY
10-15 KTS UP TO 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW EVOLVING UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG A SPLITTING TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION ARE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS CUTTING OFF
ALONG THE CENTRAL-CA COAST. SOUTHEAST OREGON REMAINS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN BOISE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE ID/OR
BORDER. SOME COOLING THURSDAY...BUT MORE SO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON ZONES DUE TO GREATER CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL
BE THE MAIN EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS EACH
DAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS EAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES
INLAND...SOUTH OF THE NEVADA BORDER...THE PRECIP BULL/S EYE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE SETS UP
ACROSS THE NEVADA BORDER...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THEREFORE...COULD SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE IN NEXT FORECASTS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
CURVE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH KICKS
IT OUT OF THE AREA...DRYING OUT THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MID 70S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB



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