Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 231531
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
931 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Weather remains quiet across Montana this morning, as a ridge of
high pressure is dominating weather across the area. The current
forecast is tracking well with the current observations. No update
needed. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Upper ridge will dominate our weather today into tonight. Expect
mostly clear skies and light winds. High temperatures should be a
few degrees higher than yesterday`s readings.

The ridge will slide eastward tonight, allowing for an upper
trough and associated surface cold front to approach the region
from the west on Wednesday. Just ahead of the cold front, a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible...mainly Wednesday
afternoon and evening. CAPE should remain below 500 J/kg, so am
only expecting general, sub-severe storms. Also ahead of the
front, winds should be southwesterly...allowing for high
temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees over south central and
southeast MT and north central WY.

Behind the front, windy conditions are expected because of
appreciable surface pressure rises of around 1 mb/hour and then
strong 700 mb winds approaching 48 kt that can mix down. Winds
could gust to around 50 mph over south central Montana Wednesday
evening. Loss of daytime heating after sunset should help to slow
surface winds down, although a decent surface pressure gradient
should keep breezy conditions going Wednesday night.  RMS/Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...


Strong front that moves through the area Wednesday afternoon and
evening will be over the Dakotas by Thursday morning. Associated
deep low pressure system will move over central Canada. This low
will slowly push eastward through the week keeping us in cool
cyclonic northwest flow. 40 kt 700 mb flow south of the low will
keep winds gusty Thursday afternoon in the central and eastern
zones. A piece of the low will cut-off and linger over the Rockies
which will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over
the western zones through the end of the week. GFS and ECMWF
models begin to diverge wildly in their handling of the departure
of the Canadian low and subsequently our weather as we head into
next week. The main takeaway from the models for next week is that
we expect generally dry conditions with temperatures trending
back into the 70s and low 80s by the end of the period. Walsh


&&

.AVIATION...


Clear skies will give way to some cirrus which will move in from
the north this afternoon. Light winds and VFR conditions expected
through the period. Walsh/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 052/079 046/063 043/064 044/068 046/072 047/076
    0/U 03/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    11/B    11/B
LVM 075 047/071 038/059 036/061 037/065 039/070 039/075
    0/U 02/T    23/T    23/T    22/T    12/B    11/U
HDN 074 046/082 045/065 042/065 043/068 044/072 045/076
    0/U 03/T    22/W    12/T    12/W    11/B    11/B
MLS 072 048/081 047/064 043/067 044/068 045/072 047/075
    0/U 04/T    32/T    11/B    12/B    12/T    21/B
4BQ 069 044/082 045/064 040/065 043/066 043/069 045/073
    0/U 01/N    31/B    11/B    12/W    12/T    23/T
BHK 067 042/076 042/062 039/063 040/064 041/066 042/071
    0/U 02/T    51/N    11/B    12/T    12/T    22/T
SHR 068 043/079 042/061 039/060 039/062 040/066 042/071
    0/U 01/B    21/B    23/T    22/T    11/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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