Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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943
FXUS65 KBYZ 031546
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
946 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
NO UPDATE IS NEEDED. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GOING SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WED NIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS. MODELS
TRIED TO GENERATE SPOTTY QPF OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WEAK ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE...BUT AIRMASS LOOKED TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. AIRMASS WILL MIX TO AT LEAST 700 MB BOTH DAYS. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AT LEAST +4 DEGREES C TODAY AND WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. RESULTS WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND
LOWER TO MID 80S ON WED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...AND SLIGHTLY
GUSTIER ON WED WITH MORE WIND IN THE COLUMN. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...


NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS WARMEST AIR ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND MIXING PROMOTES TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT HAS LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS RIDGING ALOFT LINGERS. BEST PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES
ESPECIALLY IF IT COMES IN A BIT SLOWER. FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ITS A COMPLEX
PICTURE BECAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH COMES IN SO STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY DRIVEN BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS DEVELOP SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN DECREASING
PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW RUNS AND GIVEN A LIMITED ALIGNMENT OF
WEATHER FACTORS HAVE BEEN LOWERING EXPECTED MOISTURE AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGING IS
MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW AND SUPPRESSES THE
MOISTURE INTO WYOMING. EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO DRIVE INSTABILITYSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE OVER WYOMING
AND OVER THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. LOW BEGINS EJECTING SUNDAY INTO
COLORADO AND WYOMING ON SUNDAY BUT ITS A FAIRLY UNBAROCLINIC
SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. AGAIN MAINTAINS THE INSTABILITY
DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL
AGAIN REMAIN SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS MIXING
DEEPENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY.

THIS NEXT FRONT STALLS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MONTANA AND BEGINS TO
CATCH UP WITH THE DISSIPATING UPPER LOW. REMAINS A MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWER THREAT AS THE SYSTEM IS VERY DISORGANIZED. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...


CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
BORSUM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 048/084 051/089 056/066 047/061 045/068 045/067
    0/U 00/U    00/U    13/T    55/T    32/W    22/W
LVM 077 042/080 045/085 045/061 041/059 038/067 041/068
    0/U 00/U    01/B    25/T    55/T    32/T    33/W
HDN 077 042/084 044/089 044/070 038/064 038/069 038/067
    0/U 00/U    00/U    13/T    54/T    22/W    22/W
MLS 078 048/084 049/090 053/081 048/068 045/069 044/069
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    43/T    22/W    22/W
4BQ 076 043/083 045/091 048/085 043/065 041/067 042/067
    0/U 00/U    00/U    12/T    54/T    32/T    22/W
BHK 076 044/081 045/089 047/082 043/069 039/067 040/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    43/T    22/W    22/W
SHR 072 039/079 041/087 040/071 040/059 037/065 037/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    13/T    66/T    53/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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