Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280857
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

OUR ACTIVE DAY STILL ON TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODELS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RACE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO LIVINGSTON AROUND NOON...THEN RAPIDLY PUSH
EAST...CLEARING SOUTHEAST MT EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE CONCERNS THAT ENHANCE OUR RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS ENHANCE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
TROUGH SHOULD AID IN BRINGING SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
ALSO...WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL
AID IN A LINE OF SHOWERS(ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES)DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MIX >50KT WINDS
A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF SURFACE TO GROUND. SO...BELIEVE THE RISK
IS THERE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT. THUS AN UPGRADE TO
CURRENT WATCH WILL TAKE AFFECT BUT HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE WARNING
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS WELL. THESE HIGH WINDS ADVERTISED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO STILL ON TRACK. SOME WESTERN AREAS MAY
NOT SEE FULL CRITERIA REACHED FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN EXTREME WIND EVENT AND FUEL STATUS...
WARNING STILL WARRANTED. CENTRAL AND EAST AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR
THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND
GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH...THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN AND CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT QUIET AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME QPF WITH THE FRONT ALTHOUGH NOTHING IMPRESSIVE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL IN ITS SOLUTION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD WITH THE
PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS THE RUNS YESTERDAY. THE EC IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...KEEPING MONTANA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH MORE PRECIP FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN THE CHANGE
IN THE PATTERN...HAVE OPTED FOR MORE OF THE CONSALL SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES TO AVOID ANY BIASES. THUS LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. POPS REMAIN SIMILAR...THROUGH DID SLIGHTLY REDUCED
POPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE MID MORNING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THROUGH BILLINGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MILES CITY AND SHERIDAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 KNOTS...MAINLY FROM HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER
EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 040/066 042/071 046/072 041/055 033/050 030/053
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    22/W    22/W
LVM 065 035/063 039/068 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049
    3/W 10/B    00/U    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W
HDN 078 037/068 037/072 040/076 040/057 032/052 029/054
    2/W 10/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 077 037/066 039/069 042/076 042/057 033/050 030/053
    3/T 30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
4BQ 079 036/066 037/070 040/077 040/056 032/050 028/052
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
BHK 077 035/061 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049
    3/T 40/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W
SHR 079 036/063 035/068 039/075 036/051 028/048 026/050
    2/T 20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    23/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
      MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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