Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 260215
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
815 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Forecast playing out pretty much as expected with rain showers
across the lower elevations of Southern Big Horn County and
Sheridan County, and some scattered showers over the
Absaroka/Beartooth range. Radar echoes extend out the northeast
across Rosebud, Custer and Fallon counties as well, but ground
truth suggests not much reaching the ground in these areas as
lower levels much drier than the area around the Big Horns.

Tweaked PoP`s for the overnight periods, and also raised overnight
lows a smidge due to cloud cover. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Moist diffluent Pacific air moving over cooler surface air behind
this mornings cold front will bring scattered showers to western
areas this evening, and more persistent rainfall to areas east of
a Miles City to Hardin line. The Sheridan area is favored for the
greatest precipitation tonight by most models and could pick up
over half an inch of a rain/snow mix tonight, with up to an inch
of wet snow by morning on grassy surfaces. Winter Weather Advisory
for the Bighorn mountains is in good shape with 5 to locally 10
inches of snow above 7000 feet. Precipitation and clouds will
clear from west to east overnight as upper low to the south shifts
east and drier northwest flow builds in. Expect a dry day tomorrow
with temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 50s and maybe a
few low 60s with more sun. A nice early spring day to get
outdoors.

Another trof deepens over the west coast Sunday night with
southwest flow pushing more Pacific moisture into the area for
Monday. Inverted surface trof over the area will provide some
focus for showers during the day mainly west of Billings, then as
this feature transitions into a Pacific cold front moving eastward
will see more widespread shower activity develop for Monday night
into Tuesday. This system shapes up similar to the past few as
mountains and areas east of Billings will be favored for the
heavier precipitation amounts in the end, and may need another
Winter Weather Advisory for the Bighorn mountains. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...


Active pattern for the most part through the extended period. A
series of upper lows and troughs move onto the Pacific Northwest
coast about every other day starting Monday continuing through the
end of next week. The overall upper pattern takes these upper
lows southeast and organizes them better once they reach the four
corners area then shifts them east across the southern plains.
Models are in decent agreement in the overall large scale pattern
but differ in some finer features. However, models do differ
Tuesday and Friday as the ECMWF is much wetter than the GFS
Tuesday with the reverse situation for Friday. In any case, enough
energy will remain on the northern side of the troughs/upper lows
to warrant chances for showers through most of the upcoming week.
However, any shift northward with these lows would result in more
of a widespread and possibly heavier rain event. Temperatures
look to be either at or above normal through the period. Hooley
&&

.AVIATION...

Rain changing to snow at SHR overnight tonight. Should continue to
see IFR/MVFR CIGS with reduced visibility through the morning
hours. VCSH and possibly light rain at MLS through the evening but
expecting conditions to remain VFR. Conditions improve by
tomorrow at all sites with VFR conditions and light winds
expected. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/056 036/060 039/056 038/063 041/061 040/054 035/059
    21/B    12/W    64/W    10/B    24/W    54/W    21/B
LVM 030/053 032/054 031/053 033/060 037/058 035/054 032/058
    31/U    26/W    83/W    11/B    36/W    64/W    21/B
HDN 034/057 034/062 039/056 035/065 037/065 038/055 033/061
    41/U    11/B    54/W    20/B    12/W    54/W    21/B
MLS 039/058 037/063 039/059 036/065 039/064 039/057 034/060
    31/U    11/B    36/W    41/B    12/W    23/W    21/B
4BQ 038/056 034/061 038/054 035/063 038/062 038/055 034/058
    72/W    11/B    37/W    30/B    01/B    33/W    21/B
BHK 037/057 034/060 038/056 035/062 036/062 035/054 032/055
    42/W    01/B    26/W    51/B    01/B    22/W    21/B
SHR 033/051 031/057 035/051 031/060 036/061 037/054 031/058
    92/J    02/W    56/W    20/U    12/W    56/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Sunday FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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