Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301733
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THE PAST
36 HOURS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND ALSO BE ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE STACKED LOWS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAINY DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RAPID CITY AND BOWMAN RADARS SHOWING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF
OF POWDER RIVER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND ALL OF FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PLACE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY RESULTING IN TIGHTLY PACKED
ISOBARS ACROSS FALLON AND ESPECIALLY CARTER COUNTIES TODAY
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...JUST A CHANCE FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXISTS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S OR JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT COOLER READINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

BOTH LOWS EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT TAKING THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH READINGS ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOOLEY/MCDONALD

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND WILL
DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT
OF ALBERTA. THE JET WILL BRING MODERATE Q VECTOR FORCING ALONG
WITH STRONG JET DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE DOES LOOK LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND DOWN SLOPE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BUT WILL WARM
TO NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EFFECTING KMLS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
CREATE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM EAST OF MILES CITY TO
BROADUS. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER AROUND 6Z TONIGHT. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KLVM
AFTER AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 044/059 040/056 036/068 049/073 049/071 047/069
    2/T 22/W    12/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
LVM 061 039/056 035/058 034/068 042/071 042/068 041/068
    3/T 32/W    12/W    00/B    00/U    11/U    10/U
HDN 068 043/061 039/059 034/069 045/074 046/072 044/070
    2/T 22/W    12/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 065 047/060 041/057 031/065 045/073 046/069 044/067
    7/T 32/W    12/W    00/U    00/N    11/U    10/B
4BQ 061 044/060 039/059 031/065 044/072 046/069 043/067
    8/T 32/W    12/W    20/U    00/N    11/U    10/U
BHK 058 045/059 038/056 030/058 039/068 043/064 040/062
    +/T 73/W    13/W    10/U    00/U    11/U    10/B
SHR 063 044/057 036/059 032/067 041/071 044/068 040/068
    2/T 42/W    12/W    20/U    00/U    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS






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