Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 020804
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME RAIN FOR
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
RADITIONAL CONDITIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR AREAS OF FAIRLY SHALLOW FOG
ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL
FORECAST BUFR PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WELL INLAND BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL EXTENT TO PROMPT ANY ADVISORIES
FOR DENSE FOG.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SE U.S. TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE GEORGIA...SURFACE HIGH PRES
INTACT AND VERTICAL SOUNDING PROFILES DRY AND STABLE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY SINCE INLAND FOG SHOULD BE ALL
BUT GONE BY 9-10 AM. STUBBORN CLOUDS IN FAR SE GEORGIA MAY CONTINUE
TO FLIRT WITH COASTAL SE GEORGIA AROUND DARIEN AND LUDOWICI FOR
PARTS OF THIS MORNING OTHERWISE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S
TODAY...RIGHT IN LINE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAWN ON FRI...WE INTRODUCED ONLY
PATCHY FOG AT THIS STAGE. LOW TEMPS MOST LOCALES LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO WE THINK THE MORNING
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH AND JET SPREADS OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE GREAT ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT IS PRETTY GOOD
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SHERB VALUES FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE
STILL LESS THAN 1 SO NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE WELL INLAND. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTAL
AREAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.

SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 70S DESPITE THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST LEADING TO CALMING WINDS AND
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR IMPROVING
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH COASTAL AREAS LOWER TO MID
50S...ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORDS AT KCHS AND KSAV ARE
IN THE MID 40S AND UPPER 40S AT KCXM SO THEY SHOULD BE SAFE.

SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET WARM
UP...LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WEAKEN INTO MID WEEK AS
A DYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE GA/SC
COASTS. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST.

TEMPS COOLEST MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY BACK INTO THE 40S
INLAND...THEN WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BACK ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD LOWS
MONDAY MORNING AT KCHS AND KSAV ARE IN THE MID 40S AND 50 AT KCXM SO
THEY SHOULD BE SAFE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG A COUPLE OF HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING...VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT
KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
AND/OR STRATUS EARLY FRIDAY. ALSO...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT...
HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT MORESO BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SHOULD SEE ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB





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