Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032326
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
626 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MODERATE TO
HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG EXISTING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ONE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NOCTURNAL AND DRIVEN BY
THE LOW LEVEL JET. AFTER ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND HAYS DIE OFF THIS EVENING, A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP, THE
NOSE OF WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THEREFORE,
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY, MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ON THURSDAY, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
MORE WELL DEFINED, AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG IT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF DRYLINE
STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE 37TH PARALLEL, WHICH IS OFTEN THE
CASE, ONE CAN`T BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS LIBERAL. TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH MAINLY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
THE TEMPERATURE AT HAYS, WHICH WAS HELD DOWN BY CLOUD COVER AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, SHOULD BE AT
LEAST IN THE UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, THE ARW AND  NMM ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION THAN IS THE 12KM NAM AT THIS TIME. THE NAM
PRETTY WELL SPLITS THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY
KEEPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA AND  DEEP INTO HE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE NMM WHICH ALLOWS
CONVECTION BOTH FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY
FEEDING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INTO WESTERN KS. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG A MODELED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT MAY BE LIMITED IN VERTICAL
EXTENT WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. THE ARW SUPPORTS SMALL MCS DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LATE EVENING AS WELL.

AS CONVECTIVE CHANCES EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON UNKNOWN MESOSCALE FEATURES, THE FORECASTER
CERTAINTY DROPS OF CONSIDERABLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE MID LEVEL BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN TOT HE NORTHER OF OUR FORECAST  AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS WARM, AND MAY REMAIN THE
GENERAL FOCUS AREA FOR CONTINUE MCS DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
THE TREND CONTINUES FOR A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE CONTINUED WITH THE ECMWF MOS TREND FOR DAILY
MAXIMUM T, ALTHOUGH THE REND COULD BE CHANGING A WE ARE HEADING OUT
OF THE RECENT COOL, VERY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD. THE RAW MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SEEMED TO HAVE HANDLED OVERNIGHT  LOWS THE BEST
RECENTLY AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID TO UPPER 60S LOWS DURING THE
MID LEVEL TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW THINK
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE AT
HAYS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING. ANY
STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER 06-08Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  66  91  67  90 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  65  93  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67  93  69  91 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  67  90  67  87 /  40  20  30  10
P28  68  91  69  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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