Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 092314
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

The main challenge in the forecast tonight and Thursday is
precipitation chances, extent, and thunderstorm severity.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado in vicinity of, or just downstream of Cheyenne Ridge. The
former runs (00Z) of the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB cores suggested a
small MCS would develop and roll southeast toward far west-central
Kansas. The latest 12Z runs of both the models, however, are less
aggressive with this idea. That being said, the HRRR (using WRF-ARW
core) late morning runs insist on northeast Colorado activity
evolving southeast through the evening across northeastern Kansas
and eventually into our far northwestern zones (Syracuse to Scott
City). We will maintain some Chance POPs in the far west-central
Kansas counties north of Hwy 50 and generally west of Hwy 283
through the evening.

Another MCS will either roll south-southeast out of Nebraska and
interact with the western MCS or remain a separate entity all
together and redevelop around 04-06Z across north central/central
Kansas along a strengthening zone of warm frontogenesis in the
850-750mb layer. We will have some 40 POPs from Hays to Pratt in the
05-12Z time frame, but these may need to be raised early this
evening if short term trends favor a more western scenario for
potential MCS. The overall severe weather threat looks fairly
minimal, despite a SLGT risk being issued by SPC. Any large hail
threat would be confined to areas of far west-central Kansas (but
more likely across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas)
with strong straight-line winds to 65 mph the most likely threat
with any bowing segments during the mid to late evening hours. After
that, a very heavy rain threat will develop during the overnight
hours across central Kansas. It remains to be seen, though, how far
west the core of the nocturnal MCS will be. It seems most likely
this will stay across portions of central and south central Kansas
just east of our forecast area (east of a Hays to Pratt line).

Going in to the day Thursday, a warmer day is forecast with warmer
overall temperatures in the lower troposphere (to +29C at 850mb as
far east as the Hwy 283 corridor). This should allow surface
temperatures late afternoon reaching close to, if not 100F
(especially along/west of Hwy 83 where evapotransporation will be
less). A fairly strong gradient will yield a windier day with
south-southwest winds 20 to 23 knots sustained in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Thursday night/Friday:

Minimums overnight Thursday will be quite mild - 70s - as southerly
winds continue through the overnight in association with continued
surface lee troughing.

Friday will be a hot day with max values at 97-100F. There will be
a slight chance for tstms from Hugoton to Hays and points west, but
convection may remain out of the area and limited to eastern Colorado
and into southwest Nebraska. Another mild night with widespread 70s
for lows is expected heading into Saturday morning.

Saturday and beyond:

A slightly better chance of coverage of storms is expected Saturday
as a frontal boundary sinks farther to the south across Kansas. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will be quite hot with values around 100F.

A weak cool down is expected Sunday as the front heads south and slightly
cooler 850-hPa temperatures advect across the region. Will have to watch
out for convection across the western zones in this upslope flow pattern.
The EC indicates another shot for an MCS Monday, as northwesterly flow
aloft and low-level upslope flow continues across the High Plains.

The best chance for precip area-wide is expected Tuesday as a rather
cold air mass (for July standards) moves across the Plains. The EC has
been very consistent with this cool down and associated precipitation.
850-hPa temperatures by the middle portion of next decrease as low as
8-10C! Very pleasant and highly abnormal Summer weather in regards to
temperatures is possible in about a week from now with highs in the
70/80s and lows possibly in the 50s! The front could slow down, so exact
timing is in question. Stuck with the allblend temperature solution
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with mostly clear skies.
Winds will generally be from the south around 15 knots. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms across the HYS terminal around
midnight but have left it out of the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  97  72  98 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  66  98  71  99 /  20  10   0  20
EHA  68  98  71  97 /  20   0   0  20
LBL  68  99  71  99 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  66  95  72  99 /  40  10  10  20
P28  68  96  72  98 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





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