Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292230
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A strong upper level ridge continued to reside over the central CONUS
this morning, between a deep upper low over the Ohio Valley and another
strong upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Models
continue to show the upper ridge weakening over the next 24-36
hours. The weakening of the upper ridge and resultant increase in
weak westerly flow aloft will force weak lee troughing at the
surface over eastern Colorado tonight through Friday. With
increasing southerly winds and weak low level warm advection, we
will see temperatures into the low to mid 70s over much of the
area with lower 80s returning to far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The NAM and GFS models continue to hint at some late night showers
developing over far southwest Kansas as a weak shortwave trough
approaches the central High Plains. Given this persistent trend,
have added some early morning showers to the forecast. Will continue
the trend of showers and thunderstorms into Saturday evening before
pops diminish with the passing of the shortwave trough.

The medium range models continue to show a strong upper system, now
approaching the Pacific Northwest, swinging out over the central and
northern Plains on Tuesday. The models appear to be trending toward
the idea of the upper low lifting out just to the north of western
Kansas while a strong vort lobe rotates around the base of the
upper low. As this develops, a dryline moves east across southwest
toward central Kansas with mid 60s dewpoints advecting northward ahead
of the dryline. Moderate instability is forecast along with 0-6 km
shear around 50-70 knots. Shear vectors are lining up more parallel
to the low level boundary which would support the idea of a rapidly
developing squall line. Whatever storms form in the area will rapidly
move off to the east/northeast Tuesday evening. With coordination
from surrounding offices to the east and north, have lowered pops from
what the Superblend produced. The weather quiets down and cools off
for the remainder of the extended period. High temperatures may be
in the 60s and 60s through Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds.
Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  73  51  77 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  47  77  51  79 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  48  82  53  81 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  48  79  53  81 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  45  72  49  76 /   0   0  10  10
P28  47  73  50  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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