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000
FXUS63 KDDC 192057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE BIG SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY WAS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW EXTENDED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...PROMOTING ENHANCED LEE TROUGH ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF NOTE WAS A
SUBTROPICAL JET CORE (PEAKING AT 60-65 KNOTS AT 250MB) FROM WEST OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AN OVERNIGHT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY AS IT ROLLED
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE MCS CONTINUED TO THRIVE AS OF
2030 UTC DOWN IN THE ABILENE, TX AREA. THE MESOSCALE HIGH BEHIND
THIS MCS INFLUENCED TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS LOWER THAN FORECAST
IN THE LOWER 80S. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS MID-AFTERNOON
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF MIDLAND, TX TO SOUTH OF CLOVIS, NM TO JUST
WEST OF TUCUMCARI, NM. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS RATHER CAPPED TO DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION
AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO SUSTAIN
DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION. SURFACE CONVERGENCE REALLY CANNOT BE
IDENTIFIED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
TIED TO OROGRAPHICS (RATON MESA AREA, PALMER DIVIDE, ETC.). ANY
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE ONCE SUNSET
HITS GIVEN THE MENTIONED LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE
LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DEEP TONIGHT KEEPING WINDS UP IN THE 12 TO 16
KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY:
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
(INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT) THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES EAST AND FLOW BECOMES STRONGER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE LEE TROUGH FURTHER EAST...WITH A
DRYLINE SHARPENING UP AS DOWNSLOPE DRY AIR MEETS A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER TO SUPPORT A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL STORM
WITH 0-6KM AGL SHEAR IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SBCAPE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE...SO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
GIVEN INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT CAPPING.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY:

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD BE REACHED AND A 55 KT 250 HPA
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS WARM BUT THINK THIS DESERVES SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE POINTS. OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT AND BREEZY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS RH`S SHOULD PLUMMET BELOW
15 PERCENT. WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
COMPARED TO FARTHER EAST, SO THAT MIGHT BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. THERE COULD BE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AND NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC FORCING IS INDICATED BY
THE MODELS. MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEG F.

SATURDAY:

ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. LARGELY FOLLOWED THE
ALLBLEND POPS FOR SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH ARE SILENT. THIS IS PROBABLY
DUE TO WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES PREVENTING CONVECTION. MINIMUMS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 70S DEG F AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:

THE ALLBLEND HAS SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY PERCENTAGE
POINTS SUNDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE
EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SUMMERY
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG F. BEYOND SUNDAY, A 500
HPA RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD FAVOR
A PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST (GENERALLY SPEAKING EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED
STORM HERE OR THERE). HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTURY MARK WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S DEG F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
AN INTENSE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO (THANKS TO
A POWERFUL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION). VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMIDST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH PUSHES INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  98  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65 100  69 101 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  66 101  66  98 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  67  99  67 101 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  67  99  72  99 /  10  10  20  10
P28  69  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID