Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Given radar trends showing showers in NW Kansas, and the vigorous
nature of the incoming shortwave on IR imagery this morning in
Nebraska (lightning strikes near North Platte), elected to add a
mention of sprinkles for most zones through about 8 AM. Still feel
measurable rain is unlikely.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Vigorous shortwave will pass south through SW KS this morning,
with a period of enhanced mid layer clouds, some virga, and
perhaps a sprinkle or two. The odds of any measurable rain
continue to look very low, and maintained the dry forecast
(pop grids less than 15%) as inherited. A mostly cloudy sky at
sunrise will rapidly clear from north to south today, as
subsidence and drier air arrive behind the departing shortwave.
NW winds will increase some this afternoon behind the trough
passage, averaging 15-25 mph across the western zones, with much
lighter winds east of Dodge City. Despite the NW flow, the warming
trend will continue on Tuesday, with 850 mb temperatures
increasing about 3C. Afternoon max temperatures will be within a
few degrees of 70 for most locales, except mid 70s across Barber,
Pratt and Stafford counties, where NW downslope will enhance the
warming trend.

Tonight...clear and quiet with light winds. Not as cold as
previous nights, with lows at sunrise Wednesday ranging from near
40 far NW zones, to near 50 far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry afternoons for SW KS,
with max temperatures climbing each day. Amplified high pressure
ridge will establish over the Rocky Mountains Wednesday, and drift
very slowly eastward on Thursday, with the ridge axis ending up
over central Kansas Friday afternoon. Thicknesses and 850 mb
temperatures peak on Friday, and model guidance has been
consistent on Friday being the warmest day of the forecast period.
Mid 80s will be common Friday afternoon. Lack of a good SW
downslope component should prevent most locales from approaching
90. Morning low temperatures will also climb on a daily basis, as
mixing and boundary layer moisture progressively improve. Model
consensus keeps SW KS dry through Friday night, and followed suit
with a dry forecast in the grids.

Saturday and Sunday...Convective potential will certainly increase
over the weekend. 00z ECMWF places a broad closed low over the
Great Basin at 7 pm Sat, with leading jet energy igniting the high
plains dryline from western Nebraska, through western Kansas, to
the Texas Big Bend. With SW flow aloft, shear should be sufficient
for organized/severe storms Saturday afternoon. 00z GFS places a
sharpening dryline across the western CWA Saturday afternoon, with
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s east of Dodge City. This level of
moisture is below par for May standards, but will certainly
support afternoon/evening storms near the dryline Saturday
afternoon. With quality moisture lacking, downburst winds and
marginal hail would be the primary concern.

Sunday...00z ECMWF ejects upper low to near Cheyenne by 7 pm, and
continues to suggest a higher end severe threat developing over
primarily central Kansas Sunday afternoon. ECMWF has shown
continuity with convective coverage favoring the eastern zones
Sunday afternoon/evening, where GFS brings surface dewpoints into
the lower 60s. With ECMWF progging surface cyclogenesis in Baca
county, Colorado, will need to monitor for a further westward
solution to the dryline location. For now, highest pops for
showers and thunderstorms favor the eastern 2/3 of the CWA for


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

An upper level disturbance and weak front will pass across western
Kansas this morning. Only a sprinkle or two can be expected
before mid level cloud clears out. Winds will shift to the north
at 10-13 kts behind the front by 14-15z. VFR conditions can be


DDC  71  45  77  47 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  69  42  76  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  42  78  46 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  69  43  77  47 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  72  46  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
P28  74  48  77  48 /  10   0   0   0


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.