Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 020840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

AT 330AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY. ITS OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND
THROUGH MINNESOTA. THE FRONT LINKED UP WITH A LOW IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD NEGLIGIBLE
WIND OR VERY LIGHT SSW TO SW WIND...CLOUDY SKIES...MIST/FOG...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE FOG AND MIST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE CASS COUNTY. WILL LET
THE ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM AS PLANNED AND WILL REEVALUATE
EXTENDING IT LATER IN THE SHIFT. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE FOG SHOULD CONSIDERABLY DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

THE SUBTLE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
LATER THIS MORNING AND BEGIN TO APPROACH WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE
WILL BE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD NNE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING OCCLUDED FRONT
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LEANED ON THE
HRRR/RAP/GFS MODELS FOR THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE PCPN. IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND SW FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY WNW
TO NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FRIDAY. THE COOL NW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE OVER THE NW FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE TO NO WARMING FRIDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MORNING LOWS. DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AT 850
HPA...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE THREAT OF ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE PCPN TYPE AS
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

EMPHASIS IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNT FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN REDEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN WAFFLE AROUND IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL DECENT
AGREEMENT...BUT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES. MOST MODELS SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MORE SO FRIDAY NIGHT. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP QUITE A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS SOME DECENT QPF
UNDER/NEAR THE UPPER LOW. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL A CONCERN...EVEN
MORE SO NOW THAT WE EXPECT MORE QPF OVER OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL EXIST. WE HAVE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING OVER FAR WESTERN
AREAS...THEN SPREAD THE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL AREAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. OVERALL...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE
WARM GROUND...SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE FREEZING...AND
LIMITED QPF. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER TO NORTHERLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW THERE WILL BE SOME
WARM AIR AT LOW LEVELS...MUCH MORE SO PER THE ECMWF COMPARED TO
THE NAM/GFS. IF THE COLDER LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS VERIFY...THERE
COULD BE HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER THE SNOWBELT REGIONS OF ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY/MID WEEK WHEN SOME WARMER AIR ARRIVES.

HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE FORTIES...WITH
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE FIFTIES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

LARGE AREA OF SATURATED AIR NEAR SFC AS WEAK FRONTAL BDRY STALLS
OVER THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT VLIFR/LIFR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z EXCEPT KINL. NEXT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT KHYR AS IT IS TRENDING EAST ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  45  46  34 /  60  60  60  50
INL  59  42  45  33 /  50  40  70  60
BRD  60  42  45  32 /  70  30  40  40
HYR  62  47  49  33 /  70  80  40  60
ASX  61  49  52  37 /  50  80  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     025-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
     007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.