Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300848
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

At 330 AM, skies were cloudy across the Northland. Regional radar
shows scattered showers moving southward across the CWA, and
temperatures were generally in the 40s to around 50.

The focus for the weather over the next couple days will be the
potential for rain showers, along with temperature trends. An
upper level low over Ontario will continue to affect the Northland
weather today and tonight, before moving out of the region on
Wednesday. Today is shaping up to be another gray day, with
scattered rain showers across the region. A shortwave rotating
around the main upper low will swing south to southeast across the
western Lake Superior area today, before moving out of the area
later tonight and on Wednesday. The best chance of showers should
be in northern Minnesota today.

For today, will carry highest POP`s in the north, with rain
showers likely from the Iron Range northward. Scattered showers
are expected elsewhere. Highs will generally be limited to the
50s. The rain showers will decrease from west to east tonight,
with high pressure moving in on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s to lower 40s, with highs on Wednesday ranging
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. There should be plenty of
sunshine across the area on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

The extended fcst period looks to be overall fairly dry, with
temperatures returning to more seasonal values.

The long-term forecast period begins with Thursday and Friday
looking dry and warm, with highs ranging in the upper 60s and into
the 70s, with the coolest temperatures expected along Lake Superior.
An upper-level closed low is progged to remain situated over
northeast Ontario Canada, keeping the Northland under the cyclonic
flow. The consensus blend low temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday
morning seemed to be a bit too warm, seeing as we should see some
mostly clear skies and very light winds during this time to enhance
radiational cooling, so decreased the lows by a few degrees. Lows
during this time are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s. It`s
still a bit too warm for any frost concerns, but any further
reduction in temperatures may lead to a mention of frost given the
favorable set up. A weak trough with some low-level isentropic
lift may support a brief rain shower over the Minnesota Arrowhead
region Thursday afternoon, but there is still a good bit of
disagreement between the synoptic models to put much stock into
that.

Chances of rain showers then develop Saturday morning through Sunday
night, which is the only decent shot at precipitation for the entire
long-term period. The main driver of these chances of precipitation
looks to be a mid-level shortwave, with an associated sfc warm
front. Lift looks to be pretty strong as the GFS model is
indicating some good isentropic lift with this shortwave. Pwat
values are also approaching one inch, so there could be some
wetting rainfall from these showers. The caveat is that there is
some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC models at this point
regarding the timing and location of these rain showers. The ECMWF
and CMC are closer to agreement than the GFS, with the ECMWF
shifting the track of the sfc low a bit further north, leading to
higher confidence in the precipitation, especially across our
southern areas. So, did increase the POPs along the southwestern
counties Saturday morning.

Monday and Tuesday next week look to be mostly dry, with only a few
scattered chances of a rain shower.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft in with some weak
ripples in the flow will keep showers in the forecast for the
terminals through much of the upcoming period. A fresh surge of
colder air will bring another wave of MVFR and/or IFR ceilings move
into the terminals from the north shortly, sweeping from north to
south through approximately 18z, with a brief improvement to at
least MVFR before another wave moves through after 18z. This
upper low is shifting off to the east and expect some improvement
for KINL and KBRD, with a possible improvement all the way to VFR
after 04z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  40  68  46 /  50  30   0   0
INL  54  38  70  43 /  60  30   0   0
BRD  56  42  71  45 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  55  43  70  42 /  30  40   0   0
ASX  55  43  67  44 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...LE/JTS



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