Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290533
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The northland will be under the influence of high pressure at the
surface and aloft while a deep long wave trough affects the
southern portion of MN and WI. The surface low, which has been
taking shape today in the southwest U. S. will move northeast into
the Central Plains on Wednesday. Moisture streaming northward
ahead of this low will provide more clouds to the northland which
will in cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The long term forecast is relatively quiet. Near-zonal flow will
continue for much of the period, maintain near to above normal
temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 40s and 50s. High
pressure will promote fairly clear skies Thursday and Friday, but a
passing shortwave trough could bring some light precipitation (rain
and snow) Saturday. The GFS is much more aggressive with this trough
and precipitation compared to the mostly dry European and Canadian
models, so not too confident if the forecast area will get
precipitation. Southerly flow will develop Sunday and provide a
warmer and dry day. The European and GFS suggest there could be a
period of wetter weather just after this period, around Monday night
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the TAF period,
except for stratus developing tonight possibly impacting DLH towards
Wednesday morning. Late this evening "fog channel" satellite imagery
depicted an area of stratus developing along portions of the south
shore of Lake Superior at the head of the lake. With low level winds
expected to shift from northeast to more easterly late tonight into
Wednesday morning, it is possible this stratus makes its way into
Duluth and brings as low as IFR ceilings to DLH. Any stratus may
stick around well into Wednesday morning given the continued east-
southeast winds towards Wednesday afternoon, but for this forecast
decided to transition to a scattered MVFR ceiling to indicate the
more likely scenario that, if stratus does impact DLH, it will not
be especially thick and should break up towards noon despite the
increasing high clouds aloft.

At DLH, some MVFR stratus is possible late tonight into Wednesday
morning, though this stratus will likely be more transient in
nature, with the most likely time for stratus in the hours around
and after dawn.

Elsewhere, VFR with increasing high clouds through the TAF
period. East to southeast winds Wednesday, generally light at 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  28  44 /   0   0  10   0
INL  31  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  32  52  31  53 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  31  51  30  51 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  31  46  28  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...JJM


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