Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 122351
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

HAVE SENT AN UPDATE FOR THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
40-50MPH...SO WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS CAREFULLY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEY DO NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...BUT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALLOWING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO COME TO SURFACE.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM ARE PRECIP CHANCES IN NW WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO...PRECIP CHANCE NORTHERN MN OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA TO JUST
SOUTH OF IRONWOOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED IN THAT AREA. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE AT 500-1000 AND LI 0 TO -3. THE
UPLIFT ALONG THE SLOW SOUTH MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN NW WI THROUGH SUNSET. THE STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL WITH THEM. THE FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL END THE PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
THROUGH NE MN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALONG WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1000 SO WILL PUT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF DLH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY BE RAIN SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL CAUSE MORE INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING SO KEPT
THE POPS FOR PRECIP IN THE GRIDS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FLOW INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM WILL BE ON LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH DOUBLE
BARREL CLOSED LOW THAT SLOWLY SWINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CAA BRINGS RAPIDLY FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH H85 VALUES ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
0 C SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
SHOULD NOT BE IMPRESSIVELY COLD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR
MASS...RAIN...AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
TO THE LOW 60S F. THESE VALUES WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE RECORD
FOR COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JULY 14TH AT KINL WHERE THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 61 F SET IN 1908.

THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR PERIOD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 200-300 J/KG OF CAPE MONDAY...SO
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDER. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS PROFILES ARE DEEPLY SATURATED AND PWATS
REMAIN IN THE 0.75 TO 1.0" RANGE.

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD CORE TROUGH MAKES A GRADUAL
EXIT TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LVL
RIDGING THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS A SUGGESTION IN THE FAR
RANGES OF THE LONG TERM MODELS OF SHORT WAVE WITH MID-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DAKOTAS THIS LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...PROVIDING A WARM RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT.
THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING FAIRLY FAST AND SHOULD AFFECT KINL
HERE FAIRLY SOON...THEN MOVING ON THROUGH KHIB AND KDLH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THIS LINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AS
THE LINE GETS STRETCHED OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THAT
BY THE TIME IT GETS TO KBRD AND KHYR THE LINE MAY WELL BE JUST
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LESS INTENSE TEMPO GROUPS AS IT GETS FARTHER
EAST...AND JUST VCSH/VCTS FOR KBRD AND KHYR. CAN REEVALUATE AS THE
LINE GETS CLOSER. NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 GUST 20-25KTS
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...THEN DIMINISH.
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AND IT WILL BE
A BREEZY DAY. CLOUDS AND SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN LATER IN
THE DAY...BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND HAVE MOVED TOWARDS
A LATER TIMING FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  67  50  61 /  30  10  40  60
INL  49  65  47  60 /  70  40  50  50
BRD  53  70  51  62 /  40  10  30  50
HYR  53  70  51  58 /  20  10  20  70
ASX  53  68  49  59 /  20  10  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE






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