Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 162000
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
300 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Surface low pressure was located across northwest Iowa at 19Z with a
cold front extending southward into southwest Iowa. Convection thus
far today has been relatively light. Although instability exists,
lack of coherent forcing has limited the convection.

Expect the cold front to help provide some coherent forcing for
convection this evening and tonight as it slides eastward across
Iowa. CAMs keep most of the convection to the south in Missouri and
southward, however cannot rule out an isolated severe storm across
southern Iowa. Damaging wind and large hail would be the primary
threats.

Wrap-around moisture and instability behind the system on Thursday
will keep chances of showers and possibly thunderstorms mainly
across the northeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Thursday Night through Sunday Night:

Confidence: Medium

Main concern will be next upstream short-wave/frontal boundary that
is expected to arrive Friday into Friday night. Quiet weather will
continue into the night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Bulk
shear will be increasing through the morning/afternoon hours...so
potentially a few storms may be strong to severe and we continue
outlooked for marginal. Highs will be similar to the past few days
with upper 70s to mid 80s in the south. There are some minor
differences between the GFS/Euro as for timing and best forcing. The
Euro is a bit farther north with the better forcing Friday into
Friday evening.  After a quick exit warm air advection will return
for late Saturday into Sunday as another system begins to move into
the Great Plains. Both the GFS/Euro are hinting at increased warm
air advection into the northwest Sunday...which may lead to late day
thunder/storms over the far northwest. As a warm front lifts
northeast into Minnesota Sunday night convection will be favored
over the north/west during the nighttime hours.

Monday through Wednesday

Confidence:  Low to Medium

Though the pattern is active through the period...timing differences
based on model choice and consensus continue to lead to low
confidence. Models diverging Monday with the GFS farther south
with the main forcing compared to the European model. The GFS
develops an MCS over eastern Nebraska by 06z Monday and slowly
decays the activity through 18z...taking the complex over western
Iowa/northwest Missouri through 18z. Previous model packages were
in better agreement with timing/placement of features. Given the
interest in the forecast for Monday...too early to have a
definitive answer regarding cloud cover/rain chances given the
current information. H850 temperatures continue to be warm both
Sunday into Monday and if sunshine is present...should allow highs
to reach well into the 80s both days...especially across the
south. Models continue to focus more of the thunderstorms through
the overnight hours Monday night into Tuesday with some lingering
storms in the south later in the afternoon. There remain some
timing difference later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Have mainly VFR/MVFR categories in the TAFs. Additional SHRA/TSRA
expected to develop later this afternoon into the evening hours and
only have VCTS mentioned as still some uncertainties in timing. Cold
front will swing through the region later tonight into Thursday
morning.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Zogg
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Zogg


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