Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 122335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH POLK AND JASPER COUNTIES. WILL
CANCEL TORNADO WATCH IN THOSE COUNTIES SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SECONDARY TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY RECOVERING FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING WITH BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...SO KEPT SLIGHT POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT TO BRING THE WELL ANTICIPATED
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
TWEAKED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION THE NON-
DIURNAL TEMP TREND ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AS SUN ANGLE STILL HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TO FILTER INTO THE STATE AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +5C TO +6C BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT MENTION OF NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY AND EXPECTING DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP. SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP TO AROUND 50F
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE RADIATION COOLING EVENT...COULD SEE
SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP IF WINDS DROP OFF ENTIRELY. SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
IT BEGINS MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL IOWA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...13/00Z
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA
THIS EVENING. KOTM SHOULD HAVE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A POST FRONTAL BAND OF STRATUS
MAY IMPACT KDSM THIS EVENING. TRENDING TO ALL VRF BY 06Z. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT VFR SC/CU FIELD OVER NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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