Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
914 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sun...

Inherited weather elements appear in excellent working order. A
few changes were made to bring forecast in line with current
conditions, namely the addition to thunder across a few locations.
Expect shower activity to diminish this afternoon with high
temperatures nearing 80 degrees. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Southwest flow aloft will prevail over Montana the next few days
as an upper ridge will be over the Dakotas and an upper trough
currently off the BC and Pacific NW coast will digs south.

A shortwave trough in the SW flow aloft is currently moving across
Eastern Montana this morning and brining isolated showers to parts
of the forecast area. The showers will prevail into the daylight
hours of this morning before the wave moves to the east by
afternoon. Warm air mass will remain over that area today with
highs near 80 in many locations.

A shortwave ridge will bring dry weather this afternoon, tonight
and most of Saturday with mostly clear skies and warm

A shortwave trough moves through Western Montana Saturday
afternoon and evening. This will bring a cold front across the
forecast area Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. There will be
enough instability for thunderstorms at times and the system has
enough moisture for a good chance of showers. Expect a period of
dry weather on Sunday, mainly in the afternoon as the forecast
area will be between systems. Forrester

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...

A highly amplified and synoptically active weather pattern will be
common through the extended forecast period.

Beginning Sunday night and continuing through Thursday night, a
cold low pressure system from the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies regions will bring multiple periods of rain showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms to many portions of northeast Montana.

While precipitation amounts are still relatively uncertain, a
general 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall can be expected for most locations.

A cold, north or northeast wind will prevail for most of the
forecast period. Temperatures will be coldest from around mid-
week through next weekend and although overnight lows will
approach near the freezing mark, do not expect rain to mix with
snow - at least not enough to include in the forecast with any
level of confidence at this time. The models are beginning to show
it in the central Montana higher elevations, but not for northeast




Possible brief morning shower near KSDY/KGDV. Otherwise, SCT to
BKN mid to upper level clouds. Expect light easterly winds to
persist throughout.





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