Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 280311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
911 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Wed...
Latest Update...

Showers continue to make progress in the NE zones as they head
toward the North Dakota Border and into Canada. The going forecast
remains in fine shape. Maliawco

Update 6PM...

A few showers continue over the eastern 1/3 of the region and this
should last into the evenings hours. Very few adjustments made to
the current forecast at this time.


Previous Discussion...

Aside from a few rumbles of thunder over far western Richland
County, most locations in NE Montana have experienced off and on
isolated to scattered rain showers through most of the day under a
stalled front and a messy and dis-organized precipitation field.

Tonight through Tuesday morning, similar rain showers are expected
to continue before gradually or loosely organizing into a band of
showers near and along the Big Sheep Mountains. Then, through
Tuesday afternoon and evening, that area of rain showers will
slowly exit our CWA toward the east, completely clearing by early
Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the flow aloft will turn more zonal and winds look
to increase into the 15 kt range, but shouldn`t be too bad as the
push of an upper-level ridge from the southwest will keep this
region dry through mid-week.


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Progressive pattern for the remainder of the week with no
significant changes to the forecast. Good model agreement
regarding shortwave and it`s chance of rain for Friday. Model
agreement breaks down over the weekend for increased uncertainty.

Previous long term discussion...Shortwave ridge will bring dry
weather to the area Wednesday Night.

A split upper level trough moves inland from the Pacific
Thursday. The base of the southern trough digs into the desert
southwest Thursday Night and Friday and becomes closed low.
Southerly to southwest flow ahead of this trough will bring
moisture into Northeast Montana mainly Thursday Night and Friday
with a chance of rain possibly light snow if temperatures are cold

During the day on Friday, Northeast Montana switches to the drier
northern stream and a shortwave trough moves through the area and
moves the moisture to the east by Friday Night.

Upper ridge will bring dry weather on Saturday.

Models time the trough for early next week differently with the
GFS somewhat faster than the ECMWF. Could see a chance of rain by
Sunday Night or Monday. Forrester




SYNOPSIS: A stalled front will continue accompanying a short-
wave disturbance through NE Montana through Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered rain showers are possible over all TAF sites, and as
such, brief MVFR conditions may impact the TAF sites.

WINDS: From the east and southeast at 5 to 15 kts by afternoon,
then turning from the northeast tonight. Expect light and variable
wind for the TAF sites again on Tuesday.





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