Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 240916
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS
FORCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COASTLINE UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS
BEING WRUNG OUT AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL DIRECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WNW
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUING THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. FEEL LIKE 20G30 MPH IS A GOOD BET. WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE
AROUND A SIMILAR SOLUTION BRINGING A DEEPER AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
RAIN SHOWERS COULD EASILY LINE UP OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER AIR MASS AND SOME POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS SEEM TO THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM ALSO
BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADED PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE REGION. WIND
WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z TODAY. THE WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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