Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 031404
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
804 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 804 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BBW CAME IN WITH A PKWND OF 43 KTS AT 1347Z. SENT AN UPDATE TO
INCREASE WINDS THRU MID-AFTERNOON.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

JUST SENT AN UPDATE FOR THE NEXT 3 HRS TO GET FCST TEMPS BACK ON
TRACK. THE FCST WAS RUNNING TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS QUICKLY AS THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
APPEARED ON RADAR A FEW HOURS AGO IN THE GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS/
AURORA AREAS...IT ALMOST JUST AS QUICKLY APPEARS TO HAVE FIZZLED
OUT. BARRING ANY UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS OVER THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DECLARE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
RISK THIS MORNING A "NON-ISSUE" FOR OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH PLEASE NOTE
IT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME FARTHER EAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF ANY WIDESPREAD "HIGH-IMPACT" WEATHER APPEARS
TO REMAIN RATHER LOW DURING THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE ARE PLENTY
OF FORECAST NUISANCES TO CONTEND WITH. OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BY
FAR IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RATHER WINDY OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AREAS BREACHING 30
MPH SUSTAINED/40+ GUSTS FOR A TIME. OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IS WHETHER OR NOT PARTS OF MAINLY THE NEBRASKA CWA
COULD STILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM ALMOST "INSISTING" ON ITS
OCCURRENCE THE PAST FEW DAYS...OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LOW-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SUCH AS FROM THE RAP13 OFFER DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN ITS PROBABILITY...AM NOT COMFORTABLE "PULLING THE
PLUG" ON IT COMPLETELY JUST YET. AT THE VERY LEAST...HAVE AGAIN
TONED DOWN ITS FORECAST WORDING BACK TO "SLIGHT CHANCE". ON YET
ANOTHER PRIMARY TOPIC...AND SOMEWHAT IRONICALLY...AS MUCH AS WE
HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON THIS MORNING`S WEATHER (OR LACK
THEREOF)...ITS STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE TONIGHT
FEATURES A RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NARROW BANDING POSSIBLY DROPPING
AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.

AS FOR THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/4AM...AS FAR AS WE CAN TELL ITS
BEEN A VERY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT OF SORTS...AS ANY STEADY SNOW HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER...WHILE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST A BAND OF
MIXED PRECIP IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER THE MO/IA BORDER REGION. AS
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...ABOUT OUR ONLY POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR
THIS MORNING IS WHETHER NOT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIGHT YET
DEVELOP...AND DESPITE A LOWER STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE CWA...IT JUST ISN/T SHOWING ANY REAL SIGNS OF BUILDING SOLIDLY
BELOW 1000 FT AND THUS BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE
PRODUCTION. ON THE SURFACE MAP...A BROAD LOW OF AROUND 1002MB IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW RACING INTO NORTHWEST NEB OUT
OF SD/WY. AS THE SURFACE LOW HAS APPROACHED AND WEAKENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTH BREEZES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED IN
SPEED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS EVEN GOING
LIGHT/VARIABLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER JET AXIS LIES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES PUSHING EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE NEB/SD BORDER
AREA...OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE PARENT TROUGH STRETCHED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CAL COAST.
TEMPS THIS MORNING HAVE REMAINED VERY STEADY FOR THE MOST PART IN
THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S RANGE...WITH SOME SLIGHT RISES STARTING TO
BECOME A BIT MORE APPARENT IN NORTHERN KS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

TODAY: ALREADY COVERED A FEW OF THE MAIN CONCERNS ABOVE...BUT THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WOULD BE A BIT SURPRISED AT THIS POINT IF
LEGITIMATE FREEZING DRIZZLE BECAME MUCH OF AN ISSUE. PER THE
LATEST RAP13 LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED A BIT DRY LOCALLY...WITH BETTER SATURATION IN THE
950-900MB LAYER FOCUSED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW LIKELY TO START VEERING MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THIS WOULD SEEMINGLY PROVE POSE ANOTHER OBSTACLE TO
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
NAM ARE BEING PROVEN "OUT TO LUNCH" WITH ITS DRIZZLY QPF
SIGNALS SO FAR THIS MORNING. ALL THIS BEING SAID...WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CWA-WIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING THIS MORNING...BUT IF NOTHING SHOWS ITS HAND BY SUNRISE
IT MAY GET YANKED. MEANWHILE...FOCUSING BACK TO THE NORTH...HAVE
LEFT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92
THIS MORNING...JUST IN CASE THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERN NEB SNOW AREA CLIPS THE NORTHERN CWA. NEARLY
ALL MODELS INSIST THIS SHOULD BE "NEAR-MISS" THOUGH...WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES INTACT AREA-WIDE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA COULD BE PRECIP-FREE BY NOON IF
NOT SOONER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY ZIPS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW ALSO QUICKLY TRACKS EAST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...THE MAIN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE INVADING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY GET WELL INTO THE MORNING BEFORE SEEING MUCH
WIND...THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE BEHIND THIS FRONT BY
NOON...OPENING THE DOORS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT
LEAST 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH. DESPITE THE INVADING
FRONT AND STEADY COLD-AIR ADVECTION...ENHANCED MIXING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ACTUALLY KICK TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES THIS
MORNING BEFORE A MORE STEADY-TO-SLOWLY FALLING TREND FALL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ITS LOOKING LIKE TEMPS MAY
NOT CRASH AS FAR THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ACTUAL
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE QUITE TRICKY...BUT HAVE AIMED FOR A RANGE FROM
NEAR 30 NORTHWEST TO LOW-40S SOUTHEAST. SKY-COVER WISE...OBVIOUSLY
A CLOUDY START TODAY...BUT ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-STRATUS COULD LINGER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST IMPROVE TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS EARLIER MENTIONED...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT
"HIGH-IMPACT"...MORE OF THE AREA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
SEEING A BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TONIGHT
THAN THEY DO SEEING ANY PRECIP TODAY. VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM AND HIGHER-RES 4KM WRF NMM/ARW RUNS ARE ACTUALLY SUGGESTIVE OF
SOME MESOSCALE BANDING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WITHIN ROUGHLY
40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE NEB/KS BORDER...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY DROP A QUICK 1+ INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW
THOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO MORE THAN 1 INCH.
PROBABLY COULD HAVE WENT WITH 60+ PERCENT LIKELY POPS IN THE STATE
LINE AREA...BUT FOR NOW AT LEAST INCREASED CHANCES INTO THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE...WITH FURTHER INCREASES QUITE POSSIBLY BY DAY
SHIFT. BACKING UP TO THE LARGER-SCALE PICTURE...THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE AS NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...ALREADY BY THE 9PM-MIDNIGHT TIME
FRAME...AND ESPECIALLY THEREAFTER...THE PRESENCE OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A VERY STRONG 160+KT UPPER JET WILL PROMOTE INCREASING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS EVIDENT AT 700MB...WITH FORCING ALSO
PROVIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
HIGHWAY 6 AND SOUTHWARD WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED. THIS
AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME POTENTIALLY NARROW
BANDING...WHICH ONE CAN NEVER RULE OUT PROVIDING AT LEAST A MILD
SURPRISE AMOUNT-WISE. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING ONLY 10-15 MPH
FROM THE NORTH...BUT OBVIOUSLY EVEN LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
AFFECT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN KS ZONES PER
THE 06Z NAM. TEMP-WISE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY THE EXPECTATION OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS PROMOTED A MODEST 1-3 DEGREE UPWARD
NUDGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOW AIMED INTO THE
10-15 DEGREE RANGE...WITH ANY SINGLE DIGITS MOST FAVORED NORTH OF
HWY 92. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -11
RANGE NORTH OF I-80...AND CLOSER TO ZERO FARTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES WILL MERGE INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ADVANCE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
AXIS WILL CLEAR OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE
PERHAPS PROMOTING SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION
SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND SREF-
MEAN. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS OUR
EXTREME SOUTH 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM
OUR SOUTH SUGGEST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION RATES AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...LIKELY NO MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH IS WHEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE WILL CLEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM THIS FEATURE
AND THUS...WENT AHEAD WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE
20S AND 30S LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE REGARDING MAINLY
CEILING TRENDS...WIND SHIFT/INCREASES...AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY DURING THE LATTER 6 HOURS.
STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MVFR CEILING AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE/RE-OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. BY
MID-MORNING...A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE
AREA...PROMOTING SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 25KT/GUSTS
TO AROUND 35KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO AIM FOR AT
LEAST A TEMPORARY RETURN TO VFR CEILING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
TIMING COULD EASILY BE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MODESTLY SUBSIDE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR
ON...BUT MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THEN LATE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z...A BAND OR AREA OF SNOW COULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF IT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. GIVEN THIS IS BEYOND THE FIRST 18
HOURS...ELECTED TO BROAD-BRUSH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH EITHER A LOW-
VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR CEILING...WITH PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING LIKELY
AS TONIGHT DRAWS NEARER.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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