Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
429 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Ongoing thunderstorms stretch from western KS northward into west-
central Nebraska and will move through our forecast area this
morning. Any severe thunderstorms should remain confined to south
of a line from Alma to Geneva, where a strong LLJ remains in

The HRRR takes all of this activity out of the area by 9-11 AM,
and this appears reasonable. Unfortunately, things become much
more uncertain for this afternoon and evening. Potential remains
for a few thunderstorms to redevelop, primarily along and east of
Highway 281 during the afternoon, where CAPE will be in the
3000-3500 J range. With around 30 kts of bulk shear, there is a
chance for strong to severe storms. That said, the better
potential appears to be to our east in the vicinity of the surface
warm front. This is reflected in the latest SPC outlook which has
shifted the "enhanced" area farther east.

This evening and tonight, more convection is expected to develop
across the high plains in associated with a H500 wave and track
through the area. Ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential
will be across the KS counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

A fairly progressive summertime pattern is expected to persist
across the local area through much of next week. This will result in
periodic chances for thunderstorms...some of which could be strong
or severe...along with distinct breaks in chances for precipitation
as transitory ridges of high pressure make their way across the local

Starting off Friday...expect a relatively cooler day across the
local area as a weak front and upper level disturbance make their
way across the local area. While there will be several hundred
joules of CAPE to work with during the afternoon hours...overall
instability will be relatively limited...which despite the decent
low level shear...should help to limit strong or severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Thereafter...expect high
pressure across the intermountain west to transition
east...resulting a temperatures climbing back to near or above
normal over the upcoming weekend. While dry weather should accompany
this ridge on Saturday...expect a disturbance originating across
northern California to undercut the ridge over the upcoming
weekend...resulting in a a return to showers and thunderstorms
across the local area by Sunday afternoon. With 2-3 KJ/KG of CAPE
across the area Sunday afternoon...expect the potential for any
storms that do develop to become continued with the
mention of strong to severe storms across the local area Sunday

Thereafter...expect multiple...small chances for thunderstorms
through Tuesday morning...when the next ridge of high pressure is
expected to transition across the plains. Once again...with a fairly
progressive pattern forecast...expect only a brief break in
thunderstorm chances....with storms across the high plains expected
to infiltrate portions of the local area Wednesday evening/Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

My expectation is that the line of thunderstorms south of the
terminals will remain there as they propagate eastward and build
southward into the low-level jet. There is an area of rain showers
that will likely affect both EAR and GRI over the next few hours

Later tonight, scattered thunderstorms may move into the terminals
from western Nebraska. This will likely be a pretty short window
before we clear out shortly after dawn.

Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible Thursday afternoon. At this
time, the best chances appear to be farther east. Therefore I
included VCTS in GRI, but left it out of EAR for now.

Aside from any thunderstorms, winds should remain pretty light and
variable through the TAF period.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
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