Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 282251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
451 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The short term forecast continues to be influenced by a closed
low over the Four Corner region. Weak forcing associated with this
system continues to show mainly stratiform shower activity
rotating counterclockwise around this low. As the atmosphere
continues to destabilize this afternoon, expect to see more
thunderstorms develop into the early evening hours with the
strongest cells generating brief heavy rain, small hail and
frequent lightning. Shower activity will slowly diminish
overnight, but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms
continuing after midnight...especially along the Continental
Divide south of Interstate 70.

The closed low will slowly shift east over northcentral New Mexico
by Monday with the main focus of showers and thunderstorms to
remain over the southern half of the forecast area with lesser
coverage across the north. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish
after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western
half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low
pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest. There
will be a slight decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity on
Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered activity over the southern
mountains and isolated activity elsewhere. Moist southwest flow
will increase by midweek with an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity expected into the weekend. As the Pacific storm system
moves east across the northern Rockies the southwest gradient will
increase by late Friday. Seasonable temperatures are expected
through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to wrap around a
low pressure system located over northwest New Mexico this
evening. Most activity will wind down after 03z with some isolated
shower activity lingering through the early morning hours. Heavy
rain, small hail and gusty winds to 20 mph will be possible with
the stronger storms...causing a brief reduction in vsby/cigs to
MVFR at some TAF sites. Mountains may be obscured at times in
showers. Precipitation will generally be confined south of a line
from the Flat Tops Mountains to KCNY, with drier conditions north
of that line. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 04z
through Monday morning. Thunderstorms will develop over mainly the
higher terrain of western Colorado after 17z Monday.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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