Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 081100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAY PERSIST TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SO WINDS DECREASE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
MANY VALLEYS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES THERE. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG NARROW RIVER CORRIDORS...BUT
WILL GENERALLY WILL NOT OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL REMAIN A QUASI-PERMANENT FEATURE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY
...WARMING WILL LAG IN VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS PERSIST.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND WEATHER REMAINS UNEVENTFUL FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...00Z/GFS RUN SPINS OFF A WEAK LOW
BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH THREATENS SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...IN THE 06Z/GFS RUN THIS FEATURE IS CONSPICUOUSLY
ABSENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS...WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AND
IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AIRPORT OPERATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...STAGNANT
AIR TRAPPED BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA
BASIN WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR VSBY IN HAZE THROUGH
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP IN VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE NIGHT WITH HAZE IN THE UINTA BASIN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


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