Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 231058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
IN SOME OF THE MIDDLE VALLEYS...WITH RIFLE STILL REPORTING RAIN
AT 3AM MST. BUT RIFLE FINALLY SWITCHED OVER AT AT 320 AM. FEEL
OTHER VALLEYS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ITS BEEN
HARD TO PICK OUR A DISTINCT FRONTAL BAND AS THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEEN THEIR BEST PRECIPITATION. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT
OROGRAPHICS HAVE BEEN A BIG PLAYER SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND THE 500MB COLD CORE
OF -32C DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT HEADING OUR WAY...THAT SHOULD BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AS THIS FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. SNOW WILL
PICK UP OVER NORTHWEST CO AS THIS ENHANCED AREA MOVES INTO THE
CWA. THIS ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS...AND THE COLD CORE
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SLOPES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR ZONE 3...THE
COLORADO TAVAPUTS AND ROAN PLATEAU...UNTIL NOON. MOISTURE
DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEARER THE DIVIDE.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND STABILITY INCREASES AS A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLOW WILL
RELAX A BIT. WHILE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR
THESE AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SWEEP OVER THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH
500MB TEMPS AGAIN DROPPING TO AROUND -32C. THEREFORE THE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN JUSTIFIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEXT WAVE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SAN JUANS ON MONDAY...WHICH
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THIS FLOW REGIME. HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR ZONE 18...BUT TO AVOID CONFUSION...I CHOSE NOT TO HOIST ANY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE REGION WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE JET OVERHEAD WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140 KT POLAR JET SETTLING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO.
WAA AT MID-LEVELS WILL CAUSE LAPSE RATES TO STABILIZE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SHOULD BRING SNOW TO AN END IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...FOR THE NORTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS BREAK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH LIFT SUPPLIED PRIMARILY BY
OROGRAPHICS DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...ELKHEAD...PARK...AND
GORE RANGES AND THE FLAT TOPS COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS RIDGE-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BRISK. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADDITIONAL HILITES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE NOT THERE YET AND
DON/T WANT TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION AS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH THE CURRENT STORM.

EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FLOW VEERS A BIT TO THE WEST DRIVING THE
MOISTURE STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
WEST WILL HOLD MOISTURE AT BAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF NOW BACK TO A SOLUTION FEATURING A LOW AMPLITUDE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...GFS40 HANGS ONTO
THE FLAT RIDGE AND MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL DEFER TO THE BLENDED MODEL
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
TRENDING WARMER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AND THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KMTJ...AND KTEX WILL SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE DAY...THOUGH CHANCES DECREASE
TONIGHT. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
BUT FACE LIMITED CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY. HOWEVER...
EXPECT FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF SITES IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ007-
     008-011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-005-009-
     010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ003.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.