Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 291008
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER ONE LOBE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK
FORCING OVER NW COLORADO. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE STORMS TO AGAIN FIRE OVER
ALL THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SUNSHINE
OVER THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THERE...WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES. THERE WILL BE LESS CHANGE
IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS ONE TRAVELS NORTH...WITH HIGHS STAYING A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD GO TO BED AS THE SUN SETS AND THE END OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S...MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
DAYBREAK.

THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS AREA-WIDE WILL
REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL VALUES. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
WARMS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL FEEL QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE WETTER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN FOR MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT AS WE APPROACH THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOARING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AS WE
DRY OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES
IN MONDAY AND SENDS THE WARMEST READINGS OF THE SEASON INTO THE
AREA. PEAK HEAT EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS MAKING A
RUN INTO THE 90S. WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EXTENDED TEMPS UP A GOOD
5+ DEGREES OVER BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE STILL SEEING
SOME INFLUENCE OF THE RECENT COOLER WEATHER. PATTERN LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EXPECTED
BEYOND MONDAY. NEXT PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. ECMWF AND GFS NOT
IN PRIME AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS STAYING NORTH AND THE ECMWF A BIT
DEEPER...WHICH BRINGS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OF COURSE...THAT IS OUTSIDE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL TOUCH BASE ON THIS LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAINS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS AND HAIL
TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AND TOTALLY END BY 06Z TONIGHT. BRIEF DIPS
BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TERMINAL SITES THAT SEE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...WITH THE BEST FOCUS OVER MOUNTAIN SITES
SUCH AS KASE AND KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.