Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 191501

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1101 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017


Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Dry conditions are expected through Saturday. High temperatures
will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday with
highs in the lower 70s. Sunday into early next week will be
unsettled with frequent rain showers and highs only reaching the
50s by mid week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

No impact weather expected and no changes made to the inherited
forecast. Confidence is high that dry conditions will prevail
with temperatures possibly making it into the mid to upper 70s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The mild weather will come to a screeching halt early next week as
the ridge over the southeast U.S. moves east and a deep upper trough
moves in from Canada.

We`ll have several opportunities for rain, the first of which is
Sunday. A cold front will move through Sunday afternoon. There`s not
much instability with the system and so we didn`t add thunder to the
grids. But this front has been well advertised by the models for
several days and so confidence is high that we`ll see rain from it.

The ecmwf stalls the front out over southeast Lower MI and develops
a wave on the frontal boundary that rides north through Lower MI
Monday night and Tuesday. We could see quite a bit of rain with this
if the ecmwf is correct. The gfs shows a little bit of this but
develops the wave farther southeast and pretty much misses Lower MI.
A deep upper trough will move over the state Tuesday into Wednesday.
Much colder air will flow into the cwa during this time and highs
will fall into the 50s for the latter portion of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

High confidence for VFR through the period with no visibility
restrictions and scattered clouds above 18 KFT. Brief low level
wind shear issues will be briefly possible this morning mainly at
the JXN and LAN terminals. Winds should mix to the surface quickly
by around 14Z, resulting in surface winds shifting to a more
westerly direction.


Issued at 1101 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Will change the small craft end time to this afternoon. WNW winds
were continuing to diminish and will gradually swing around to
the SW later today. This lull in the winds/waves will only be for
about 24 hours as we will see increasing southerly winds and
building waves by Friday afternoon.


Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

We continue to see river levels slowly recede for the most part
after the heavy rain event last weekend. The trend down will
continue through Saturday with dry weather expected through then.

The next rain event for the area beginning as early as Saturday
night and more likely Sunday will bring measurable rain, however it
appears that rain amounts will be limited to a quarter of an inch or
less. This will not cause any appreciable rises on the rivers and
streams. Additional light rainfall is also expected for the first
half of next week.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for



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