Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 301835
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON HALLOWEEN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. ALSO
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96 AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST. WILL STRONGLY CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 45 MPH
SEEM PLAUSIBLE INLAND...AND MAYBE 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT...ALONG WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S. DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW
PUSHES IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW.  STILL
THINK ANY ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS 00Z MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
THE COLD TEMPERATURES... ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. HOWEVER THE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TOO.

P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
MOVES IN RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO ARRIVE WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVERHEAD.
THIS COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING AS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z WHILE THERE IS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVERHEAD.

IF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE PRECIP RATES OCCUR ON FRIDAY... WHICH LOOKS
QUITE POSSIBLE...SOME QUICK WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION
NEAR/NORTH OF U.S. 10... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WARMTH OF THE GROUND THIS
EARLY IN THE SEASON... BUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EASILY
OVERCOME THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO FAIR SKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN. INSTABILITY IS LOW SO THUNDER ISN/T EXPECTED. A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. A STRONG FETCH OFF THE
GULF WILL RIDE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE`LL START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN/T
COMING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA SO WE WON/T SEE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
DROP BEHIND IT.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY TO
THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. IN
ADDITION...FRIDAY MORNING STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH VARIABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS IN THE 3100-5000FT RANGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 04Z
AND 09Z TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 04Z WITH AVIATION
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TO IFR AFTER 12Z DUE TO LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL BEGIN MIXING IN AFTER 15Z.

WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING...BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...SO IMPACTING KMKG AROUND 12Z AND HITTING KJXN AROUND 17Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS TO IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS COULD
OCCUR... WHICH IS STORM WARNING CRITERIA... HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A GALE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

WHATEVER QPF WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK WILL BE LIGHT SO IT SHOULD HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...MEADE






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