Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 250431
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH STRONG INFLUX OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL LEAD
TO A LATER START TIME FOR RAIN AND ALSO LOWER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT IF THEY OCCUR THEY SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED.

MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. OVERALL NOT A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR SLOWER TIMING AND ALSO HAVE TRENDED TOMORROW
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL RULE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE PERSISTENT SE
FLOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THIS 36 HOUR PERIOD...A LITTLE HIGHER SW...A BIT LOWER NE.
THE MINIMAL PCPN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS IN THE 50S...SO BUMPED UP
MAX TEMPS A BIT.

EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OUR WAY...BUT AS IT DOES
IT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME.  AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN IN
TEMPS WED INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY VFR AS IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO DRY AIR.
THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z WHERE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. FIRST...VIA VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN RAIN
AND THEN SOME CEILINGS THAT WILL DIP BELOW 3000FT. THE RAIN WILL
END IN THE LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT THEREAFTER. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL TURN WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES IN GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS
TO SMALL CRAFT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND THE ONLY SITE STILL ABOVE BANKFULL AS
OF NOON THURSDAY IS EVART. IT TOO SHOULD FALL BELOW BANKFULL FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

RAIN IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL FALLING TREND OF THE RIVERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEXT
WEEK BUT NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MACZKO






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