Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 312325 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 116 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS PLANTED OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH TIME, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROF BECOME
NARROWER AND WEAKEN, AND ALSO PROVIDE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DRIER/SINKING AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLIDE THE PRECIP POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER SE SOONER.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BEEN
SHIFTING EAST AND THINNING OUT A BIT, MAINLY OVER SRN TN AND NWRN
AL. HOWEVER, DRY LOW LEVEL AIR HAS IMPEDED ANYTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES THUS FAR TODAY. WE WILL CARRY A 20 POP TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT OF
PRECIP ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRIVEN MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEN A COMBINATION OF A NE-SW CONVERGENCE
ZONE (WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FROM ERN/MIDDLE TN THRU NRN AL AND
MS) AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
POP WILL BE HIGHEST.

THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE PROGRESS
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE NAM/GFS KEEP IT IN PLACE LONGER OVER
THE TN VALLEY, WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IT TO THE SE. WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW POP ON SUNDAY GIVEN THIS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND MID-UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LIFTS N AS THE
NARROWING TROF WEAKENS/DISSIPATES ALONG THE GULF STATES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE COAST
MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH THE
PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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