Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 230148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
848 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

There isn`t much of a difference from last night to what is currently
occurring across the TN Valley. Surface high pressure will continue
to move NE into the area through the overnight period. With no clouds
in sight and calm winds, expecting another good radiational cooling
night with temps throughout the TN Valley falling to or below the 40
degree mark.

With that in mind and the temps we saw this morning have nudged the
forecasted values down a few degrees. This is especially true for the
cooler portions of the area (southern middle TN and other sheltered
valley locations). Wouldn`t be surprised if a few places hit freezing
right at sunrise. Have also added patchy frost for much of the
eastern half of the region between 2am and sunrise.

Will keep a close eye on temp trends over the next few hours to see
if we need to adjust additional areas down another degree or so. Should
be another crisp fall morning across the TN Valley Sunday.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The dry conditions will continue through the short term, as the
center of the surface high pressure slowly shifts east. Winds will
briefly shift to the south on Sunday, and then remain westerly
through Monday. This will combine with the mid level height rises to
bring slightly above normal high temperatures. Afternoon highs are
expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday,
with near normal overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry conditions and above normal temps will continue into
the extended forecast as the ridge of high pressure lingers across
the region. Daytime highs will reach the mid/upper 70s while the
overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

On Wednesday, the ridge will shift east as a trough and associated
front approaches from the northern Plains providing our next chance
of rain. With the latest model guidance, introduced rain into the
forecast Wednesday night/Thursday morning, and tapered it off
Thursday evening. The latest run of the ECMWF pulled back a little
bit on precip and strength of the trough across the area but believe
it is more on track with this system than the GFS at this time. The
fronts northerly wind shift arrives Thursday evening but will provide
little change to the temperatures, will more so see a change in cloud
cover as dry air filters into the region. So look for above normal
temps to continue as we head into the weekend with highs in the
low/mid 70s and overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface high pressure will gradually build over the area over the
next 24 hours. Resulting in a lighter wind speeds, a continuation of
VFR conditions, and a switch in wind direction to the SW by 16Z




NEAR TERM...Stumpf

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