Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 160124 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
824 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND GENERALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR (2-4 DEGREES COOLER DEWPOINTS) IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK SFC `COOL` FRONT. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MADE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST TO SHOW THE
TREND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT (SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS/LOWER
DEWPOINTS). THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS IS
POSSIBLE WHICH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO DRIZZLE.
HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON ADDING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND CPDS BTWN 10-14
MB.

OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION (POSSIBLY BELOW ALT MINIMUMS) IS
LIKELY BTWN 10-14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED A DROP TO MVFR FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. ISOL SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS
DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. ALSO, THE LOW CIGS MAY
PERSIST AFTER 14Z UNTIL 18Z BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SCT DECK IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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