Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 251956
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE LATTER PART OF OCTOBER...DRY AND WARM WEATHER REIGNED
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEXICO (AROUND 593DM HEIGHTS OVER WEST
TX)...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW GULF HAS
RESULTED IN VERY COMFORTABLE AUTUMN WEATHER...WITH HIGHS SO FAR
RANGING IN THE 70S AND LIGHT WINDS. A VIEW FROM ABOVE INDICATED
FEW/SCT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...WAS MOVING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS OF THIS WRITING. ON A BIGGER VIEW...UPPER
TROUGHING WAS PRESENT ALONG THE WEST/EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY.

OUT WEST...A TROUGH AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE WILL HELP TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY DURING THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN A NW FLOW ALOFT AND NOTABLY LOWER HEIGHTS. AN EVEN STRONGER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE PAC-NW LATER NEXT WEEK...FORTIFIED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA (THAT WAS NEAR HAWAII
EARLIER THIS WEEK) WILL PRODUCE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48 BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS A COOLER TREND IS EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NEXT UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FOR THE SHORTER TERM...DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUE WILL
TREND ABOVE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID 80S POSSIBLE ON
MON. THE OLD RECORD HIGHS ON MON ARE 87/89 IN MUSCLE SHOALS AND
HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY; MAY BE GIVEN A CHALLENGE AT THE SHOALS.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...WITH HIGHS ON TUE `ONLY` IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING TUE NIGHT/WED...AS A COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL COOL SHOT NORTH OF
THE FRONT IS NOT DRAMATIC...NOR IS MOISTURE RECOVERY DRAMATIC. THUS
ARE EXPECTING "GENERAL" CONVECTION...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE ECMWF WAS PAINTING A WIDER SWATH OF SHOWERS VERSUS A
SHORTER DURATION THE GFS WAS SHOWING. TOOK A BLEND OF THOSE
SOLUTIONS...ENDING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WED NIGHT.

WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHING AMPLIFYING...A TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
REINFORCING PUSH FROM THE NORTH SHOULD MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN
EVENING. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO OFFICIALLY FORECAST...FROST AND
FREEZING POSSIBILITIES DO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1212 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW DOMINATING WX CONDS
ACROSS THE REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED INTO THE EVENING HRS. SOME
-BR IS THEN XPCTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KMSL
TERMINAL WHERE VIS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE IFR CAT.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  79  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        53  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      54  80  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  52  77  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   55  77  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    53  81  51  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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