Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 252324 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
624 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
For 00Z TAFs.
(Issued 243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
The forecast area was continuing to be on the western fringe of the
upper ridge axis, which was across much of the Southeast U.S. this
afternoon. Other than some scattered showers/storms to the northwest
of the area, skies were generally mostly sunny with temps in the mid
to upper 80s at 19z.
For tonight, expect some mid and high clouds to initially remain
across portions of the forecast area, especially along and west of
Interstate 65. Will continue with partly cloudy conditions across the
area to account for the clouds and expect temps to at least fall to
near guidance values overnight. A weakening area of low pressure
across northeast Texas on Thursday will shift northeast into Arkansas
as a short wave at 500 millibars follows a similar northeast movement
through Thursday night. Dry air aloft should keep the forecast area
basically capped off until Friday. By Friday, the models are in more
favor of depicting increased low level moisture, lift with another
short wave in vicinity of the forecast area and heating, which will
lead to the mention of at least a slight chance pop for the area.
Will maintain mainly afternoon pops through the weekend. By Monday,
the models continue to indicate that widely scattered mainly diurnal
afternoon/evening showers and storms will be possible. Have
maintained a low chance pop to account for this. By next Wednesday,
the models are differing on the southern extent of a frontal boundary
possibly moving southeast into the lower Ohio valley region. The
ECMWF model is more pronounced with this southeast movement, while
the GFS model is slower with the frontal boundary movement. Will
still maintain low chance pops to round out the extended forecast
period and keep temps in vicinity of the GFS temp guidance.
For 00Z TAFs:
Bit of a low confidence forecast through the next few hours. A
weakening line of storms was entering AL, with most of the thunder
activity diminishing as it enters. Based on the trends over the last
hour or so, think that the showers will enter the KMSL terminal
within the hour, however not anticipating thunder to accompany the
showers. Therefore, have included VCTS to account for the
uncertainty. This line is expected to diminish before reaching the
KHSV terminal and have included VCSH in the TAF. Amendments may be
necessary if the line does not continue to diminish as anticipated.
Once this line moves through, dry conditions will prevail through the
period, and only high clouds are forecast to impact the terminals.
Winds will generally be from the southwest.
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