Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KILM 260639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
239 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will begin spreading
across the area today as high pressure edges in from the west.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers late on Tuesday
followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid
week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week into next


As of 3 AM Monday...A long awaited cold front is situated
northeast to  southwest from just south of Wilmington to just
north of Kingstree South Carolina. A few showers are breaking
out along and south of the boundary as expected as favorable
upper level jetting passes by. These should wind down in the
next few hours and warrants only slight chance pops through 12
UTC mostly along coastal and southern areas. The front will
continue to slowly push offshore through the day and with
precipitable water values dropping to below an inch, no
convection is expected. I opted for the slightly warmer MET
numbers for daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s. Tonight
will be very pleasant with lows in the middle to upper 60s with
the possibility of even lower values in extreme northwest zones.


As of 3 AM Monday...Primary headlines this period include an
upper disturbance in the cradle of a trough aloft followed by
unseasonably drier and cooler air for late June on Wednesday.
The moisture profiles for late Tuesday appear unsupportive of
TSTMS and only depicted showers. Height rises early Wednesday
will reinforce surface high pressure, prompting cool air flux
with falling dewpoints. Mugginess will disappear and maximums
Wednesday even under sunshine 83-87, vastly more comfortable
than recently, minimums 60-66 degrees at daybreak Wednesday.


As of 3 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become
established across the forecast area through much of the period.
Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with
a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday.

At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return
flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight
increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period
with little larger scale forcing forcing present.

High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on
Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are
expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast
on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the
end of the week.


As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. A
little uncertainty or lower confidence for the next few hours
as there is an outside possibility of some MVFR BR or stratus.
However feel the dry air advection is just enough to keep this
limited or non existent. Cloud cover will diminish appreciably
later this morning and this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with mainly
isolated showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon.


As of 3 AM Monday...Winds have shifted across the northern waters
with a northerly component now being reported at 41013 and JMPN7
as  a cold front eases off the coast. The southernmost waters
are probably seeing southwest winds continuing. They to will
eventually see north to northeast winds of 10-15 knots which
will prevail through the near term forecast period. As usual the
sea breeze may distort the typical summertime synoptic flow.
Significant seas will be 2-3 feet.

As of 3 AM Monday...Manageable but atypical marine conditions
since N-NE winds will prevail as high pressure from the west
with slightly cooler and drier spreads into area. Seas however
should hold at 3 feet or less and winds 17KT or less this period
so no caution headline or advisory anticipated. A few marine
showers may form Tuesday night as a disturbance aloft skirts by
and a few TSTMS near the Gulf Stream may erupt, but move east
not into shore. Seas 2-3 feet in a mix of weak SE swell, waning
S waves and a moderate N-NE chop.

As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast
with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By
Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and
winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas
will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period
from the southeast.





AVIATION...SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.