Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 220808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
308 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
Temperatures will remain well above normal this week. A week
trough may bring spotty showers to the region today and
Thursday. Near record highs are possible Friday. A cold front,
approaching from the west, will bring a slight chance of showers
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will build into the area
Saturday night into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its developing surface
reflection swing southeast out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
then across southern Florida and then over the Bahamas by the end of
the period. Meanwhile, a coastal trough will continue to develop.
Mid-levels will remain quite dry although satellite loops and model
soundings show an extensive cirrus deck will continue to cover the
eastern Carolinas. SE flow will also advect in low level moisture
which may enhance fog development overnight. Dry mid levels and lack
of any strong triggers makes for another dry day with pops remaining
silent. Temperatures will continue to run unseasonably warm, with
highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...An upper low and its surface reflection as
mentioned in the Near Term discussion above will swing NE from the
Bahamas, passing well offshore the Cape Fear Region late Friday.A
coastal trough will move ashore on Thursday while a cold front
approaching from the NW approaches the Appalachian mountains.
Isolated showers are possible Thursday as the trough moves ashore,
otherwise the short term will remain dry. Weak forcing Thursday
means QPF values will remain on the minimal side for any showers
that manage to develop. There will be a warming trend with
temperatures remaining well above normal. Many locations away
from the beaches could see highs of around 80 on Friday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Mid level low pressure sweeping across the upper
midwest will push a cold front across the area Saturday with minimal
moisture. The timing has stepped back a little from recent runs and
this should allow high temperatures to soar to near 80 degrees in
some spots. We continue to advertise slight chance pops with the
system. Beyond this the mid level pattern transitions to zonal then
a somewhat southwest flow develops early next week. This will allow
another dramatic warmup after cooling down to just touch climatology
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...Patchy areas of MVFR fog possible late overnight
into the early morning hours. Otherwise expect VFR.
Widespread cirrus cigs along with SCT/BKN mid clouds continue
to move across the area tonight, with easterly winds around 5
kts or less. Expect this trend to continue with latest guidance
continuing to suggest the potential for areas of MVFR due to fog
to develop late overnight, especially in SE NC. After daybreak,
expect any fog to disperse, giving way to VFR through the rest
of the valid TAF period. East-southeasterly winds will increase
to 5 to 10 kts throughout the day and evening, with BKN/OVC mid
to high clouds expected. Would not rule out isolated showers in
the afternoon/evening hours.
Extended Outlook...Isolated showers through Thursday. Showers
possible Saturday with a cold front. Otherwise expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure
over the waters combined with a developing low moving over the
Bahamas will bring east winds of around 10 kts with seas of 2 to 3
ft today. Seas will build slightly overnight, becoming a more solid 3
ft throughout by daybreak on Thursday.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Longwave swell generated by a developing
low over the Bahamas will bring increasingly high combined sea
heights, with Small Craft Advisory criteria possibly being met
by Thursday night as the seas build. Winds will remain easterly
and relatively modest however, as the low will not strongly
intensify and should remain well offshore through the period. DO
not see winds exceeding 15 kts through this period and most
locations will be more in the 10 kt range. The exception could
be the very near shore waters on Friday, when a strong land/sea
temperature contrast could enhance the sea breeze effect during
the afternoon, with winds gusting up around 20 kts.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...A southwest flow of 10-15 knots will be in place
to start the period and as a cold front moves across Saturday winds
will take on a more westerly component. Speeds also increase to 15-
20 knots. Wind direction veers even further to northwest by Sunday
morning. Speeds decrease later Sunday. Regarding seas, small craft
levels will be reached and continue probably through early Sunday