Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 230753
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY...STALLING NEAR THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS  OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BRING SOME OF THAT
DRIER AIR UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WELL. THIS TREND IS WHAT WE
EXPECT WILL AID IN LIMITING THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY. DRIER AIR ALSO HEATS MORE EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

SHOWERS SKIRTING THE COAST MAY MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY ACT TO FOCUS MOISTURE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH WILL BE STEERED
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BE SW. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE PAST
THE EARLY EVE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING GIVEN A DRIER COLUMN AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN RIDGE WILL HELP TO
CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA LINE AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE SEABREEZE. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE COAST SHOULD NOT QUITE REACH 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID 80S WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HEAT
INDEX ACROSS MOST OF THE PEE DEE AND UP THROUGH PEMBROKE AND
LUMBERTON WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
 OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BRING SOME OF THAT
DRIER AIR UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WELL. THIS TREND IS WHAT WE
EXPECT WILL AID IN LIMITING THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY. DRIER AIR ALSO HEATS MORE EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPS SHOULD
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

SHOWERS SKIRTING THE COAST MAY MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY AS THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS MAY ACT TO FOCUS MOISTURE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND TROUGH WILL BE STEERED
INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BE SW. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE PAST
THE EARLY EVE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE RATHER QUICKLY
WITH LOSS OF HEATING GIVEN A DRIER COLUMN AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING AN EXPANSIVE WESTERN RIDGE WILL HELP TO
CARVE OUT A DEEPER EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS NORMAL FOR MID SUMMER. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA LINE AROUND
DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE SEABREEZE. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE COAST SHOULD NOT QUITE REACH 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID 80S WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HEAT
INDEX ACROSS MOST OF THE PEE DEE AND UP THROUGH PEMBROKE AND
LUMBERTON WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR STREAMING IN INITIALLY
ON THURS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PCP WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND 1.5
INCHES BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND
SLOWLY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS UP TO 30 KTS. MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATE THURS AS PCP
WATER VALUES REACH UP OVER 2 INCHES. EXPECT MOST WIDESPREAD
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE THURS AFTN AS PRE FRONTAL TROUGH NEARS
THE AREA AND GREATEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE H5 TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LAY JUST WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON THURS AFTN BUT
HEADING INTO THURS NIGHT...STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO BECOME MORE
SW TO W AND SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA.
THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SHOULD
SEE FRIDAY MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE COAST WHILE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE
ITS WAY IN ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
THE COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING A DEEPER DRIER FLOW AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HEADING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.

DECENT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES PEAKING THURS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 90S
AND WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS INTO THE 70S...TEMPS WILL FEEL AS IF THEY
ARE OVER 100 DEGREES IN PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN AND HEIGHTS LOWER FOR
FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER BUT STILL UP
AROUND 90. CLOUDS AND INCREASED SHWR ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE
TEMPS ESPECIALLY LATE THURS THROUGH EARLY FRI. LOW TEMPS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...LINGERING COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN NEAR
THE COAST AS IT WEAKENS LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSE
BY...ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH COLUMN MOISTURE APPRECIABLY LOWER ABOVE H85. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN NEAR 1.5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY AND
EVEN LOWER INLAND. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH OUT OF AREA AND ALTHOUGH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS AS
RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWER POPS IN MORE LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY AND WARM TEMPS.

BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTH AGAIN PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUES PUSHING
FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR DEEPER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID WEEK. THE MAIN TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND
TEMPS PUSHED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
WITH READINGS IN THE 90S FOR HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BUT
BY TUES MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S MOST PLACES WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST NEAR
10Z. STILL A BIT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...HOWEVER MOST OF THAT WILL BE
DISSIPATING...ALLOWING MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. FOG
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS
PREVALENT AS LAST NIGHT SO WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY AT
THIS TIME...INCLUDING IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT KLBT AND KFLO.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BE
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. THUS...EXPECT MUCH LESS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN A THUNDERSTORM AT KILM/KCRE
AND KMYR 16Z-21Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
WESTWARD TODAY. THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN SHARPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING THIS EVE. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVE. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE N AND NW LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE
NORTH-CAROLINA-VIRGINIA LINE BY SUNRISE THU. ACROSS THE WATERS...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND WINDS OF SIMILAR SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. TOTAL SEAS WILL BE A PRODUCT OF SW WINDS
AND A SE 8 TO 9 SECOND SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
COAST ON FRI. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THURS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS
EVE AND POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THURS EVE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS FRONT WEAKENS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MORE W WINDS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE COMING BACK AROUND TO THE
S-SW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN A SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT MORNING
AND THEN WILL BEGIN A RISE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY POSSIBLY
REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS BY SUN NIGHT. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS SAT
MORNING WILL REACH UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SUN EVENING AND NEAR 6 FT BY
EARLY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.