Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 191901
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH-FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST. A TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO
UP ALONG THE NC COAST...IS STRENGTHENING THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL HELP
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ITS TRYING TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...DRIVING A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT
STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT.

WELL RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANY OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TRUST ANY
OF IT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. BELIEVE THE RAIN HAS NOT
BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT SW OF THE LOCAL
AREA...FROM WHICH THE BEST "MOIST" LIFT IS ORIGINATING. DRY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL NEVER CREATE SHOWERS...AND THUS ONLY CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST TODAY...DEVELOPING FROM THE
SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYERS. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST MATCH
THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS AND KFFC THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS
USED PREFERENTIALLY. LATEST KLTX RADAR DOES SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE...AND EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND ADVECT
BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE
DECREASED POP FROM EARLIER...BUT STILL SHOW LIKELY POP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...WITH LOW-CHC INLAND. AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE DOES WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST...DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ONCE AGAIN...AND COULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP MODE INLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE
HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DRIVE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
LLJ IS PROGGED TO RISE TO 40 KTS TONIGHT AT ONLY 1500 FT AGL...THUS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGHEST AT THE COAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL EVEN ON THE COOL NE FLOW. LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND
10 DEGREES. THUS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT JUST ABOVE 50 AT THE
COAST...AND JUST BELOW 50 TOWARDS I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN DRIFTING
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE PULLS AWAY WITH THE
SYSTEM...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY FADE FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST WHEN AND WHERE WE CAN EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO HANG ON BEFORE FADING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST.

GRADIENT ALONG BACKSIDE OF OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN WE WILL SEE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGHER GUSTS.

COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SUNDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
60S. MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AS MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS OF RIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY WILL FADE AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TIMING FROPA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT MOISTURE AND THE COVERAGE OF
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A 500
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WON`T COOL DOWN MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS THU-SAT. WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL POP FRI-SAT
DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS
AT KFLO/KLBT HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH MVFR AT TIMES. VSBYS ARE
VFR...BUT VSBYS AT KILM/KLBT HAVE BEEN MVFR/IFR IN -DZ -RA AND BR.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING FROM S-N...SHOWERS
ARE REDEVELOPING TO THE SE OF KILM. THE LATEST HRRR SLINGS THIS NW
INTO KILM THEN KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT KILM/KLBT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH MVFR
VSBYS AT KILM DUE TO SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR CIGS INLAND AS WELL...WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLBT DUE TO SHOWERS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ENE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW PASSES EAST THE BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. PERIODS OF VFR
COULD OCCUR BY 12Z BUT KEPT CIGS MVFR ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
N-FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE PARENT LOW IS
STRENGTHENING OFF THE NC COAST...AND HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST
SUCH THAT ALL COASTAL WATERS ARE NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NE
WINDS...EVEN OUT TO FRYING PAN SHOALS. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
CLOSER TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE VICINITY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN.
THEREFORE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT...BECOMING NE AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KTS
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY AS WELL...BECOMING
7-11 FT WITH A SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT...FORCING
STEEP WAVE FACES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WITHIN THE WAVE SHADOWED
REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-4
FT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH GALE WARNING FLAGS
FLYING AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN OFFSHORE
SYSTEM WILL CRATE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SEAS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 FT OVER THE OUTER
FRINGES OF OUR WATERS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO PERHAPS LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MIDDAY.
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM




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