Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM INLAND LATER TODAY AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE
FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS
DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS THEY MIXED OUT
INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WE MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
AND BE AVAIALBLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO.

ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET CLOSE
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SPRINGMAID PIER
WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS
WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE
COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT
IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR
FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE
LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO WELL
OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST
SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING ALOFT. STILL SCT
SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO.

LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS
TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS
CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE
TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CU
AND TRANSITORY UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS
FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE
AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE
HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING
THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG
WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS
DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND
STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT
EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND
10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MBB



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