Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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920
FXUS62 KILM 072337
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO WINDY AND WET
CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL FOLLOW INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...HAVE PARED BACK THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD
WATCH BASED ON PROGRESSION OF THE STORM. RAIN IS NOW CONFINED TO
THE CAPE FEAR REGION FROM BRUNSWICK AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. RAIN SHIELD WAS EARLIER MOVING RATHER SWIFTLY
EASTWARD...BUT HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST FEW SCANS. WINDS INLAND
HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND ARE ALSO ON THE DECLINE ELSEWHERE.
FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY
ON TIME AT 10 PM. FROZEN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR WET SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT AS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WE DO NOT SEE THIS AS A THREAT. BIGGEST
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WHERE RAINS ARE STILL FALLING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

POWERFUL SURFACE LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
PRESENTLY. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRACE SE NC AND NE SC WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO EVENING BEFORE PULLING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY PINCHED PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO EARLY EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED...AS THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF POTENTIALLY DOWNED TREES REMAINS
VIABLE. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AS WELL...WITH A FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF SE NC. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND RELATIVELY MILDER GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPS...SNOW
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THUS NO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PLANNED. COOLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL ARRIVE IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AS THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...MINIMUMS 30-35 DEGREES MILDEST AT THE COAST. INTO EARLY
MONDAY WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTENS UP THROUGH MON AFTERNOON
BUT DOES NOT BECOME SATURATED AT ANY LEVEL AND THEREFORE MAY BE
TOUGH TO SQUEEZE ANY PCP OUT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY PCP. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE...ONLY SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE THE SFC BUT
FZL LEVEL STILL REMAINS AROUND 4K FT. WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ERODED FURTHER AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
AREA WITH COLUMN DROPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL WOULD
NOT DISCOUNT SOME SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN BUT
NOT COUNTING ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AT ALL. PCP WATER VALUES
ONLY REACH NEAR A HALF INCH. WILL CONTINUE KEEP FORECAST ALL RAIN
FOR NOW AND LOW CHC POP WITH MINIMAL QPF. TEMPS WILL REACH UP INTO
THE MID 50S ON MONDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

BY TUES MORNING...A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN AND ROTATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED CAA AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS EXISTS ON TUES
AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT ANY PCP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...THERE MAY
BE A VERY LOW END CHC LINGERING INTO TUES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED
CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 50 DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND WINDY FOR THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES.

ANOMALOUS 500MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...AND BE
REINFORCED THROUGH A SERIES OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AND WEAK FRONTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AS LOW AS -16C (!) ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING. REGARDLESS...HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WED AND THU PEAKING ONLY AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT...AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 30 DURING THE
AFTNS.

A BIT OF WARM/MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING OUR ONLY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD. ATTM IT APPEARS IT WILL BE JUST A BIT TOO
WARM DURING PRECIP FOR ANY PTYPE CONCERNS...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSED. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK...BUT
STILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50...BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEARLY PARALLEL TO US AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN BANDS HAVE
CLEARED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ILM WHERE THEY WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ILM
FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LESSER SPEEDS AT THE MYRTLES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. MAINLY A MID CLOUD CEILING OVERNIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SKIES IN STORE WITH THE MORNING
SUNRISE. A VIGOROUS BUT SHORT LIVED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND. STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM...AFTER WHICH A GALE WARNING MAY BE HOISTED DEPENDING
UPON CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12
FEET...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 50 KTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A COASTAL STORM OFF
CAPE FEAR TRACKS NE...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DOWNGRADED TO A GALE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS
OF 7-13 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FEET BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WITH WINDS EASING TO 15-25 KT FROM THE W. WIND DRIVEN
RAIN THIS EVENING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 1 NM OR LESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. FRYING PAN SHOALS REPORTED
A A PEAK GUST EARLIER TO 52 KT...MASONBORO BUOY 5NM OFF OF
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 52 KT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NEXT ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY....DROPPING BELOW
15 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES
TO THE NORTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE OVER 20 KTS BY LATE AFTN AND
NEAR 30 KTS MON NIGHT AS DEEP CAA COMBINES WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS ARCTIC
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF OUT OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE SEAS WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE.
SEAS WILL INITIALLY DIMINISH TO 4 TO 6 FT AS WINDS DROP THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND THEN WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE MON PEAKING AROUND 4
TO 8 FT MON NIGHT AND REMAINING THIS HIGH THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND
BEYOND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 15-20 KTS...AND
THEN FALL QUICKLY AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE WATERS FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SW AT
5-10 KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE ALL OF WEDNESDAY (OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING)
FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT...LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS THEN
FALL QUICKLY THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT...AND THEN JUST 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ105>110.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/RGZ



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