Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 290030
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF AN
UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS WEST AND BRINGS A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS JUST
ABOUT ENDED FOR THE EVENING AS THE LAST OF THE DAYS CONVECTION
MOVES OFFSHORE GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES. EXPECT TO CLEAR
THESE LAST TWO REMAINING COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH SHORTLY. THE ANTICIPATED UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT HAS
DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR FOLLOWING. BIG CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...WITH MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. FLO
COULD APPROACH A DAILY RECORD LOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE THE DAILY
RECORD LOWS FOR ILM AND FLO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD:

WILMINGTON NC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1874
JULY 30: 61F (1914)
JULY 31: 60F (1914)

FLORENCE SC RECORD LOWS...DATING BACK TO 1948
JULY 30: 63F (1997)
JULY 31: 62F (1997)

PWATS WILL FALL TO 1.0-1.2 INCHES BY MID WEEK...SO POPS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. GIVEN THAT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF OUR OCEAN TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY...WHICH FURTHER LIMITS ANY PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RETROGRADING ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT WKND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARMING TO NEAR-SEASONABLE LEVELS SUN/MON. AT
THE SAME TIME...WHILE THU/FRI WILL LIKELY BE DRY THANKS TO W/SW
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WELL OFFSHORE WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE
MOIST ADVECTION AS THE FRONT/TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE WILL CREATE MUCH
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SAT/SUN/MON. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
MOVE IT TOWARDS THE COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...IT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR POSSIBLE
LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SHORT-LIVED MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WILL
CHANCES FOR FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH THE CONVECTION AS STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF AND
SKIES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLEAR...GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH VEERING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR DUE TO MORNING FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8:30 PM MONDAY...VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS AMZ
254 AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY WILL CLEAR THE WATERS TO THE EAST
WITHIN THE HOURS. UPDATING THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING FOR
15-20 KT SW WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE
COAST...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERALL BUT THE TSTM THREAT WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO GET A FIX ON RADAR
EVEN IF HEADING OUT ON THE ICW. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 3-4 FT AT
5-6 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS. SEAS WILL LESSEN
TO 2-4 FT AND A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW AT 15 KT LOOKS TO OCCUR PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL RELAX AND BECOME NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 3 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 FT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STALLED COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WILL WAVER JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE
COAST THU/FRI...E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BE THE RULE BOTH DAYS
OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10
KTS ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH. SEAS WILL BE SIMILARLY UNIFORM...2-3 FT THU/FRI WITH A NE
WIND WAVE DOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM...AND REMAINING 2-3 FT SATURDAY
BUT WITH AN INCREASING SE WIND WAVE AND GROUND SWELL.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJR
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...BJR
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/BJR



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