Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 301724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY STALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF BERMUDA IS MAINTAINING A RIDGE
AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALOFT...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD
WHILE JUST ONLY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NE. THESE FEATURES TOGETHER
WILL CONTINUE THE WARM...BUT AT TIMES SHOWERY...WEATHER TODAY.

MOIST ADVECTION ON LONG E/SE FETCH IS FINALLY OVERCOMING THE
CONTINENTAL DRY AIR AND SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
REGION AND OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY THIS MORNING. AS NOTED
YESTERDAY...AIR PARCELS ARE ACTUALLY ORIGINATING OVER SE CANADA
BEFORE TRAVERSING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE AND ADVECTING BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS OF DRY
ORIGIN...AND THUS IT IS DIFFICULT TO CREATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TODAY THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT STILL ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE CURRENT HRRR IS PERFORMING WELL AND IS
LEANED UPON FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AT THE COAST WILL BE
MOST FAVORED THIS MORNING...THEN TRENDING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A SURGE OF DRIER AIR FORECAST BY LOWER PWATS ON
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN-VIEW GUIDANCE...AND NOTED ON WV SATELLITE...WHICH
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. HAVE BUMPED POP TO
CHC...USING THE SCT WORDING HOWEVER...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS
MORNING...AND THEN ADDED ISOLATED TO THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTN. THE DRY PUSH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT
BEST HOWEVER...ENDING BEFORE DARK...AND NO LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED.

HAVE BEEN FORECASTING HIGHS TOO LOW THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EVEN WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW HAVE FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...AND AM EXPECTING 80-82 AT THE BEACHES...TO AS HIGH AS 90
FROM KINGSTREE TO BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 60S...MID 60S AT THE BEACHES.
WILL NEED TO WATCH ONCE AGAIN FOR ISOLATED ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT OUT MENTIONABLE POP FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS DOMINANT AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ASIDE FROM SOME DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWER ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. A
STEADY STREAM OF MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO 70 AND DAY TIME HIGHS MID HIGHS TO NEAR
90.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS TROUGH DISPLACES THE HIGH FURTHER
EAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...TAPPING INTO INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER
VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH SUN MORNING WILL BE 1.5 TO 1.75
INCHES BY MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AHEAD OF
FRONT ON MONDAY. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WEST OF AREA ON MONDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR OR WEST. BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES
EAST...THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY CUT OFF OVER THE GULF AS RIDGE
GETS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL STRETCH OUT THE FRONT MORE
WEST TO EAST JUST NORTHWEST OR OVER FORECAST AREA BY TUES MORNING
AND WILL CAUSE IT TO MOVE SLOWER OR STALL. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE MONDAY AS CAP BECOMES
ERODED...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF MON EVENING SHOULD BE LEFT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
ON TUES BUT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...IT MAY
CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH LEAVING FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
W-SW TO E-NE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD
DOWN BEHIND IT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BUT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT NORTHWARD...BUT EITHER WAY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MAY WIN OUT OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT GFS WOULD HAVE LOW OVER GA/SC BORDER WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP CHC OF PCP EACH DAY WITH GREATEST CHC TUES/WED AS FRONT SAGS
OVER AREA.

CLOUDS...PCP AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD....WHILE KEEPING NIGHTTIME TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN VFR LEVEL LOW/MID CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND TERMINALS WITH E-SE WINDS. THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KILM...ENDING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT BECOMING POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODELS AGAIN ARE SUGGESTING MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO BR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS
INCREASING...AND HAVE ADDED MVFR PREDOMINANT AT CRE/FLO/LBT. SOME
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ILM OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...AND SINCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

EXPECT THE SAME CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE BUT VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VCSH CONTINUES AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING SE AT ALL TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TUE AND WED. SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THUR.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY AS
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA CONTINUES
ITS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. THE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY WEAK...SO E/SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING FROM 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING TO 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT. A RETURN TO 5-10 KTS IS
FORECAST LATE. THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE NEARLY ENTIRELY SWELL
DOMINATED...AS A 4 FT AT 9 SEC EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTS...PUSHING
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...SE WIND EARLY SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETREAT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY PUSH
WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS HEADING INTO TUES WHICH WILL HELP TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE S-SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LESS THAN 10
KTS SUN INTO MON UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO BY TUES MORNING. THE
LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY FETCH WITH A PERIOD UP TO 9 SECONDS WILL
COMBINE A SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TUES
INTO WED AS COLD FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS AND STALLS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE DEPENDING WHERE
FRONT STALLS WITH N-NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF FRONT AND S-SE
WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/JDW
MARINE...JDW/RGZ


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