Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251118
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
618 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will prevail into today as high pressure holds
over the area. A dry cold front will cross the coast Saturday
night, followed by dry and cool high pressure early in the
week. A gradual warming trend will come during the middle of
next week as the high pressure moves offshore. A cold front
should move across the Coastal Carolinas on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Any lingering clouds along the coast
will get pushed out of the area as the final wave of low
pressure moves off to the northeast early this morning. This
will bring winds around to the west by daybreak allowing drier
air to to move toward the coast. Pcp water inland was near a
quarter of an inch while along the coast it was closer to and
inch. Models show the pcp water dropping to less than a half
inch by daybreak. Therefore expect mainly clear skies for the
first part of the day with weak high pressure holding over the
area.

Increasing high clouds will arrive ahead of an approaching cold
front later this afternoon into this evening. This cold front
will move through dry, but do expect a decent amount of mid to
high clouds through this evening. Winds at the sfc and very low
levels of the atmosphere will back to the SW ahead of the
front. The model soundings and moisture profiles show a layer of
increased moist layer between 8k and 15k ft as well as some
upper level moisture mainly between 22z and 04z. The pcp water
values will reach up just less than an inch. Winds will veer
around to the NW after midnight as front moves off the coast and
high pressure begins to build in behind it. This will advect in
plenty of drier air and cooler air into the forecast area. The
850 temps will drop from near 11c Sat aftn down to 5 tot 6c by
Sun morning. Overall expect this cold front to go through dry
and fairly uneventful.

Temps this morning will start out about 10 degrees cooler
inland under more ideal radiational cooling conditions, while
clouds and increased moisture were preventing temps from
dropping much below 40 closer to the coast. The deep westerly
downslope flow and good amount of sunshine today will aid in
bringing temps up into the mid 60s this afternoon. Behind the
cold front, expect temps to drop off into the low to mid 40s for
low temps by very early Sun morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Cool and dry high pressure will slowly migrate
east across the eastern CONUS as an H/5 L/W trough deepens
aloft. Model soundings show a deeply dry column with P/W values
only in the quarter inch range. This will make for few clouds
during the short term, allowing for ample sunshine and clear
nights. Despite the adequate insolation, the CAA associated with
this airmass will lead to below-normal temperatures through the
period. In addition, clear skies and light winds will lead to
efficient radiational cooling on both nights. Expect highs of
right around 60 both days, with lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 234 PM Friday...Summary line for the extended forecast
period "Fair Fall Weather with a Warming Trend During Mid-
Week." The coolest portion of this period, daybreak Tuesday as
high pressure becomes centered nearly overhead with prime
radiational cooling conditions. The high shifts offshore during
the mid week period, allowing a warm-up, with low 70s on tap
WED-FRI, amid a weak pressure pattern, until a cold frontal
passage late in the week. The return flow also involves a low-
level moisture return beginning Tuesday night. Convergence along
the western periphery of the offshore high, could brush the
coast with a few showers mid-week, but limited moisture aloft
may prevent much in the way of measurable rain then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12 UTC...Nice aviation weather with predominately scattered
skies and light winds. Scattered high clouds are expected this
morning as weak high pressure stays in control. A weak cold front
will pass through the region tonight, almost undetected except for a
slight wind shift. Little to no airmass change.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Winds will basically back around from
the NW to the W-SW through today as low pressure moves off to
the northeast and a cold front approaches from the west,
remaining less than 25 kt over most of the waters. This cold
front will cross the waters around midnight tonight with a
shift of winds to the NW behind it. Winds will veer further to
the N by Sun morning as high pressure builds in behind the
front. Seas near shore will not get a chance to build as winds
remain off shore. Overall expect seas 3 to 5 ft early this
morning subsiding to 2 to 4 ft through today. A brief northerly
surge in CAA behind the front will kick seas up a bit but should
not be enough for any precautionary statements or advisories
within the 20 nm range of our area waters.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure migrating slowly east
across the eastern CONUS will maintain a N to NE flow over the
waters through the period. For the waters north of Cape Fear,
winds will initialize at 15 to 20 kts but will moderate to
around 10 kts during the afternoon as the high moves closer to
overhead. Seas over this portion of the forecast area will range
from 2 to 4 ft. The winds south of Cape Fear will start out at
10 to 15 kts and will also moderate by afternoon. Expect light
NE winds on Monday, with seas of only around 2 ft or less
throughout the waters.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 234 PM Friday...Gradually, an improving marine forecast
Monday through Wednesday, as brisk high pressure and gusty N
wind early Monday eases, as the high center approaches early
next week. The high will slip offshore by late tuesday, allowing
winds to become light and variable or E-SE less than 10 KT. As
a result no advisories expected this period, nor TSTMS over the
0-20 NM waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...43



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