Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 232112
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue this evening as a low pressure system
continues to move southeast of the region.  Precipitation will
gradually taper off as weak surface high pressure builds into the
area by Tuesday.  Rain chances return for Wednesday as another low
pressure system approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain and drizzle will continue across the area this evening as an
area of low pressure moves southeast of the area.  Low level
moisture remains for the overnight hours keeping cloudy conditions.
In addition as the rain tapers off, the low level moisture will keep
the chance for some drizzle in the forecast through the overnight
hours in addition to some patchy fog.

Some isolated wind gusts are still present this afternoon, however
expect wind gust activity to subside overnight as the low moves
further away from the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining drizzle and fog will come to an end Tuesday morning.
Low level clouds are expected to remain for much of the day,
although a few breaks in the clouds will be possible by later in the
day.  More appreciable breaks in the clouds are expected Tuesday
night, however this break will be short lived as additional clouds
move into the region in advance of the next system.

Above normal temperatures are still expected for Tuesday even with
the cloud cover.  Went with slightly higher temperatures across
southwest portions of the forecast area where there starts to be
some warm air advection late in the day.

With the potential for some breaks in the clouds Tuesday night
temperatures will likely drop down into the mid to upper 30s.  This
is still above normal for this time of year. Southerly flow will
keep temperatures from dropping further than that Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes will keep
the Ohio Valley warm-sectored with temperatures in the 50s and a
slight but increasing chance of pre-frontal showers through the
day. This initial threat of showers will move southeast of the
region by nightfall, then the colder air will move in as a large
piece of upper level energy moves past by daybreak Thursday. Any
precipitation after Wednesday evening will be snow, possibly mixed
with rain at its onset. Snowfall in the cold air behind the front
will be light, a third of an inch or less.

A longwave trough sets up west to east from northern CA, through
the Great Lakes, towards the Canadian maritime provinces. West
winds over the bulk of the United States will keep a cooling trend
over the region, with upper 30s to around 40 for highs Thursday
dropping a few degrees each day to be about 10 degrees colder by
Sunday, then warm back up to where they started on Tuesday.
Overnight lows on Wednesday night will be the warmest of the
period in the mid to upper 30s. After that they will quickly drop
into the 20s for the rest of the forecast and could dip into the
teens by Sunday night.

No clear shot of snow is expected during the extended, though a
strong trough will cross Sunday night and early Monday, providing
the best chances for accumulating snow. Scattered snow showers
will remain a possibility for much of the forecast being in a cool
and unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Off and on rain shower activity can be expected through this
evening. With lingering low level moisture some drizzle can then
be expected for the remainder of the night before tapering off.

Cigs and vsbys will be reduced and range from LIFR conditions to
MVFR conditions. Gradually expect an improvement in these
conditions during the day on Tuesday.

Isolated wind gusts around 20 knots can be expected this
afternoon, however expect wind gust activity to subside by this
evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday afternoon. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak



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