Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 280939
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE FA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
SW PORTIONS OF THE FA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SLEET
AS WELL.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
FA. A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS. ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING HOW MUCH
TO PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH THE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/CMC/ECMWF IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES AND THEIR RESULTING
THERMAL FIELDS. THAT BEING SAID...THEY ARE ALL STILL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SPREADING A DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A RAIN
SNOW/MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING
THAT A LITTLE WARMER AIR MAY SNEAK UP INTO OUR AREA.

PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CAA AND A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IN GOOD CAA...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP BEING DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS POSSIBLY ON THE
GROUND FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT A FEW SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS DISSIPATES VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THICKEN WITH TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






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