Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 312008
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
408 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT
TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA BORDER THROUGH 12Z
WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. THEREAFTER...THE
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE BETWEEN TODAY
AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOCUS WITH A SLOW
MOVING NATURE NOTED TO THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE EMPLOYED VCTS/CB
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATION TO THE CONVECTION WITH SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR...LOCAL
IFR...VISIBILITIES TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. KLUK WILL SEE
LOWER CONDITIONS (BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS) DUE TO RIVER FOG. ON
TUESDAY...FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z...GIVING WAY TO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE CUMULUS/CB ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...TO SMALL TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN


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