Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 262000
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place for the weekend
with multiple systems moving through the region. Mostly dry
conditions return for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A few showers will move across northwestern portions of the
forecast area through the early evening hours. A MCV or meso
low approaches tonight along with upper support. There are still
some model differences in the exact location of this low and
subsequently precipitation coverage. Better instability is
across central and southern portions of the region.
Thunderstorms could end up a little further south than some of
the model indications are if the thunderstorms build into the
better instability. In general expect a bow of thunderstorms to
move into western portions of the forecast area beginning around
8pm. Since there is a boundary nearby there is the potential
for an isolated tornado. The main threat would be damaging
winds. Cannot rule out isolated flooding since there will be
heavy downpours, however the precipitation is expected to be
relatively progressive. There is a smaller threat for large
hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation will be exiting the area at the start of the day
on Saturday with only a few residual showers and storms south of
the Ohio River. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and south of the Ohio River Saturday afternoon
along a frontal boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with these storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected to work into the region overnight associated with a
warm frontal boundary. There is another severe threat during
this time with damaging winds and large hail. There is some
concern for flooding and isolated tornadoes well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front is forecast to lift north across Ohio Sunday morning
ahead of a surface low pressure system moving across the southern
Great Lakes. There is some uncertainty as to how things will play
out with a possible MCS Saturday night and the effects this may have
on our area into Sunday. Nonetheless, it does look like we should
destabilize as we get more into the warm sector as we head through
the day on Sunday. As the low moves across the southern Great Lakes,
an associated cold front will drop southeast through our area Sunday
night. Ahead of this, will continue with higher chance to likely
pops through the day on Sunday and then taper them off from the
northwest Sunday night as the cold front moves through. Expect highs
on Sunday mainly in the upper 70s.

An upper level low will rotate down across the Great Lakes and then
shift slowly off to the east through mid week. A series of weak mid
level short waves could lead to a few showers across our far north
Monday and Tuesday. There is some model uncertainty on Wednesday
with maybe some slightly stronger energy moving in from the
southwest. For now will just allow for a low chance of showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm later Tuesday night into Wednesday across the
area. The upper level low will weaken as it shifts to the northeast
United States through the end of the week. This will help us
transition into more of a southwest flow pattern with the possibility
of some lower chance pops developing toward the end of the long term
period. Seasonable temperatures will continue through the week with
highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR and dry conditions will start out the TAF period. A complex
of storms will move through the region tonight. Vsbys and cigs
will be reduced as this moves through. A few showers will linger
after this feature moves through before tapering off. Cigs will
lower further late in the overnight hours. Conditions are
expected to improve back to VFR by the end of the TAF period.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible towards
the end of the longer KCVG TAF Saturday afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday,
along with a chance of thunderstorms. Intermittent chances of
thunderstorms will remain possible from Saturday through Monday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Novak



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