Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 191038
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
538 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will remain for much of the day as the region remains
under a cold northwest flow aloft. High pressure will build into
the Great Lakes and Ohio valley tonight, allowing skies to
clear. The high will continue to influence the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large scale mid level trough will traverse east across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley today. A weak embedded disturbance in the
northwest flow aloft, along with some weak instability, may be
enough for a slight chance of a rain and/or snow showers across
the northern zones today. Otherwise, clouds will remain for
much of the day. As the cold pool of air begins to shift to the
east late in the day, stratocumulus deck should begin to erode
and shift east. Temperatures will not warm all that much,
ranging from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
Northwest winds will remain locally gusty between 15 and 25
knots

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level trough will shift way from the region tonight into
Monday. This will allow the flow to back to a quasi zonal
pattern.

Cold pool associated with the stratocumulus deck is
expected to move out of the area this evening, leaving mostly
clear skies for the overnight hours. A surface ridge will also
build east into the region, with a surface wind shift to the
southwest. Temperatures will generally bottom out in the lower
to mid 20s.

On Monday, the center of the ridge will move southeast toward
the Carolina coast. We should see some filtered sunshine as high
clouds begin to spill into our area from the west. Temperatures
will warm into the mid and upper 40s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be moving into the Carolinas by Monday
night, with a warm advection pattern setting up across the Ohio
Valley. This will continue into Tuesday, with an increasing
pressure gradient over the region, leading to another day with stiff
southwesterly winds -- gusts likely reaching the 25-30 knot range.
With warm advection, this should also allow for temperatures to
reach the upper 40s to middle 50s, several degrees warmer than
Monday.

As the aforementioned surface high moves off the mid-Atlantic coast
on Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move through the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday afternoon and evening. This front will be pivoting into a
WSW-to-ENE orientation, and will be far removed from its parent low
(moving into northern Quebec). With moisture also lacking, a dry
forecast will be maintained as this front passes through. However,
there have been some oscillations across the various model runs with
regards to the strength of the front (and its parent shortwave). It
may end up possible that some light precipitation will occur across
northern Ohio, and some PoPs could eventually need to be introduced
for northern sections of the forecast area.

The cold advection behind the front is not expected to be as strong
as with the current setup occurring as of this writing. Nonetheless,
max temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from Tuesday to
Wednesday, before starting a slow recovery through the rest of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Region will remain under a northwest flow pattern aloft today as
a large scale mid level trough pivots east through the Great
Lakes. CAA in the northwest flow across the Great Lakes will
keep a stratocumulus deck across the terminals for a good part
of the day. It now looks like ceilings for the most part should
range between 3500 and 4000 feet, but some pockets of 2500 feet
can not be ruled out. Winds will remain northwest, locally
gusty between 20 and 25 knots.

By late this afternoon into this evening, as the mid level
trough continues east, a surface ridge of high pressure will
build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley from the west. This
will allow the stratocumulus deck to scour and shift east.
Wind gusts will subside with a westerly direction backing to a
south direction overnight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman


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