Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241945
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. A DRIER AND SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BACK ACROSS INDIANA...BUT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WITH THESE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THINK CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP AND BETTER
FORCING APPROACHES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST NOW WITH THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITIES...SO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY TONIGHT AS THEY WILL LIKELY DROP OFF
SOME THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS DECREASE.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP SOME. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR
A BIT OF A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PCPN SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST. COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS/RAIN EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY TO WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...WE WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY COULD DROP DOWN ACROSS
OUR AREA SOME TIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
THIS AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST KEEP SOME LOWER
END POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP TO BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE
FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST.

A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS
ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER
LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL WAA CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN WILL THIN
LEAVING MAINLY CIRRUS INTO THE EVENING.

SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE A LTL SLOWER...
SOME MARGINAL INSTBY WILL LKLY BE OBSERVED RESULTING IN EMBEDDED
THUNDER. HAVE MENTION OF A PERIOD OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS
DURG THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN TAFS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR






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