Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 030608
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
208 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
WILL UNDERCUT A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
REGION NEAR OR ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH
WILL SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKY COVER REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WE HAVE
SEEN SOME DECENT HOLES OPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE 925 MB FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SOME OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTH
MAY BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT BELOW THE INVERSION
LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REGION WILL SEE SOME
DRY AIR MIXING IN LATE...BUT A PESSIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE THE BETTER SIDE TO ERR ON GIVEN THE UPPER LOW ONLY STARTING TO
MAKE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE INVERTED TROUGH RUNNING ALONG OR AT LEAST NEAR THE I-71
CORRIDOR WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF IT NEAREST THE OHIO/WV LINE. IF
SUN DOES MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IF PRESENT WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AND ENHANCE ANY UPWARD MOTION FOUND DURING
THE LATE DAY. DID NOT CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MODELS
WERE VERY MUTED IN QPF BULLS EYES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A COLD POOL SHOWER EVENT WITH NOT ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTIONS AVAILABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW 80S THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL WARM TO AROUND 60 WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S THURS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THAT
THE DYNAMICS ARE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A
LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...SOME EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
IN MVFR CATEGORY TO DRIFT BACK ACRS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING IN
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHUD KEEP VSBYS FROM
CRASHING AND GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.

THESE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY
LIFT INTO VFR THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP DURG THE LATE AFTN MAINLY EAST OF I-71 IN RESPONSE
TO A S/W ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO STAY SE OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE OMITTED
ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE FCST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR






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