Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 261050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
650 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers and
possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High
pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and


Two issues that need to be dealt with for the beginning of the
forecast period. First is the Frost Advisory in Central Ohio. Due
to persistent cloud cover, temperatures have stayed warmer than
previously thought. Also based on the latest satellite loop it
looks like the clouds will linger through sunrise. So will be
dropping the Advisory with 4 AM issuance.

Second issue is the area showers working ewd through IL and IN.
Last couple of volume scans have shown what appears to be a weaken
trend. Still think that some of the showers will hold together
into the Whitewater Valley and West Central Ohio. This is
supported by the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP. Not sure that
is will really produce measurable amounts, so will carry some
scattered sprinkles for the first few hours of the forecast.

During the late morning hours, the better isentropic lift
across a warm front will shift north. This should keep pcpn chance
this afternoon across nrn Ohio, and will allow some sunshine to the
srn counties. Temperatures in nrn KY will warm to around 70,
however as you head n, highs will drop to the mid 50s for the
extreme nrn counties of the fa.


Tonight a H5 s/w digging thru the upper Great Lakes will push a
compact sfc low and cdfnt into the fa. The trend of the finer
resolution models have been to delay the onset of the pcpn. So
slowed down the PoPs several hours, waiting until midnight (04Z)
to bring likely PoPs into the nw counties. There is still
questions about how the srn part of the pcpn will hold together.
Kept likely PoPs n of I-70 and tapered the pops down to chc and
slgt chc as you head south. The amount of instability is also in
question tonight. It is very marginal, but don`t want to keep flip
flopping, so since the previous forecast had slgt chc thunder,
will leave it in the forecast. Bumped up lows to range in the 50s,
with a few upper 40s.

With the slower solution, Thursday would begin with the front
still across the fa along with pcpn. Highest PoPs will be in
Central Ohio with decreasing values both south and west. Expect
the pcpn to be e of the fa by noon. Temperatures look like they
will be non-diurnal Thursday, with high temperatures occurring
during the late morning hours before the cooler air works in.

High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night and the high
will be centered over the area Friday morning. Lows Thursday night
will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The area of high
pressure will push off to the east Friday allowing southerly flow
to push highs back into the lower to mid 60s.


Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the
southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area.
High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above
normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this
time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80,
normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83,
normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82,
and normal 59.

A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture
is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for
precipitation chances.  The best chance of some light shower
activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area
around CMH.

High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday.
There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the
long term and therefore went with dry conditions.


SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds will remain over the area
through the morning hours. Some spotty -SHRA will continue to move
east through west-central and eventually central Ohio over the
next several hours. Activity has shown a steady weakening trend as
it moves into area and expect that this will continue through the
morning. Nevertheless, decided to keep VCSH for KDAY through 14z
to account for potential for a brief light rain shower or two. Dry
conditions are expected this afternoon area wide.

As a warm front begins to lift north through southern parts of
the area late this afternoon and evening, some partial clearing
may be possible, especially for the southern terminals of KCVG,
KLUK, and KILN. As this occurs, winds will gradually become more
southeasterly and eventually southerly late this evening. Winds of
10-15 kts are expected this afternoon, with locally higher gusts

For the second half of the TAF period, a sfc low and associated
cold front will track east through the Ohio Valley. Pre frontal
scattered -SHRA will move through the area very late this evening
through the overnight period Thursday morning. Activity will
likely be disorganized in nature, so didn`t have the confidence to
go more than a VCSH for any site at this time. Post frontal MVFR
CIGs are expected to overspread the area from the west towards the
end of the TAF period.

Winds will become more westerly with the passage of the front.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Thursday through
Friday morning.




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