Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 261001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
601 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

High pressure and a dry airmass will lead to a continuation of
unseasonably warm temperatures again today. A cold front will
push through the region on Wednesday, leading to the possibility
of a few showers. A much cooler airmass will then settle into
the region through the end of the week.


Skies are mostly clear across the area this morning and expect
this to continue through much of the day as the mid level ridge
remains in place across the region. Low level thermal fields
this afternoon are fairly similar to what we saw on Monday so
will again go with highs in the upper 80s to possibly the lower


The ridge will flatten out tonight into Wednesday as short wave
energy begins to work down into the Great Lakes region. This
will help push an associated cold front across our area through
the day on Wednesday. Moisture is quite limited through the day
and forcing is weak so think any pcpn will be pretty spotty.
Will therefore limit pops to just slight chance and hold off on
mentioning thunder as instability also remains marginal. Highs
on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in the northwest to
the upper 80s across the southeast.


Wednesday night a surface cold front will be moving through our
southeastern zones with little in the way of precipitation
expected. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning the surface
cold front will clear the forecast area with cooler and more
seasonable weather moving into the region. It will feel much
cooler outside as 850 mb temperatures plunge below 10 degrees C.
Highs Thursday will be in the lower 70s with dewpoints falling
into the upper 40s.

Thursday afternoon models have been fairly consistent in showing a
rex block forming out in the Western United States allowing a potent
shortwave to dive southeast out of Manitoba and head towards
Michigan. As this happens Friday, a reinforcing shot of cooler air
will move into the region. Highs Friday will likely again be around
70 degrees with low level CAA by evening. Due to this, GFS forecast
soundings not surprisingly show a saturated layer between 800 and
600 mb. The GFS also outputs some QPF Friday afternoon into evening,
but appears to be overdone. The ECMWF and CMC show more of the QPF
towards our north and east. For now have kept slight chance PoPs in
for the central and northeastern zones while keeping the southwest
dry. Have also kept CU in the forecast for Friday given the
widespread CAA.

Saturday morning the upper level shortwave will be heading east of
the area with surface high pressure located over northern Michigan
(inline with the upper level ageostrophic convergence). Over the
last couple of days models have continued to slowly push the best
upper level convergence north and east of the area. Lows will still
likely be in the 40s Friday through Sunday, just not as cold as seen
in previous model runs. Through the weekend mostly clear skies and
seasonal temperatures will be the story as the forecast area lies on
the back side of the upper level shortwave.

Late Sunday through the remainder of the extended models quickly
diverge on possible solutions as an upper level low moves across the
Pacific Northwest. The GFS deepens the low and is more stagnant with
the flow while amplifying an upper level ridge across the area. The
ECMWF on the other hand has the low quickly pulling east across
central Canada allowing ridging to build across the south/central
United States. The GFS solution favors dry and warm weather at the
end of the extended while the ECMWF favors warm weather with
possible precipitation Tuesday as the area gets clipped from the
upper level low heading east. For now have kept the area dry for the
end of the extended while keeping a slow warming trend Monday into


Areas of fog, primarily in the river valleys (KLUK), will
dissipate within the first hour or so of the TAF period.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few cu and/or some cirrus
at times, expected mostly clear conditions through the day. Some
high level moisture will begin to spread in from the west
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Generally expect VFR
conditions through the remainder of the TAF period outside of
some possible valley fog again later tonight, mainly affecting

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




LONG TERM...Haines
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