Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300639
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

High pressure across Indiana overnight will provide for a dry and
pleasant Memorial Day. Rain chances will return midweek as a system
tracks across the Great Lakes area. Dry conditions, along with more
seasonable temperatures, will return to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 946 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms have exited the county warning area, and
drier air will continue to filter in as high pressure strengthens.
Expect continued clearing overnight and lows generally in the low
60s. Current temps across the area are generally in the low to
upper 70s.  Updated grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Any lingering diurnal storms will diminish with the loss daytime
heating. Mostly clear skies overnight with high pressure building in
will allow temperatures to drop a bit more than Friday night, but
remain a tad above normal in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

High pressure in place will provide central Indiana with a beautiful
Memorial Day. Plenty of sun before a few CU develop will allow
high temperatures to be similar to Sunday (low to mid 80s).

The main forecast challenge for the short term period will be
precipitation chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Models try and
bring some QPF into the northwest Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Current thinking is this might be a bit overdone with no mechanism
in place to bring in any real impressive moisture, in addition to
the best upper level forcing still out across the Plains. Therefore,
went with just very low PoPs across the northwest (dry
forecast elsewhere) through Tuesday night.

As the upper low near Lake Superior propagates across southern
Ontario, several shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries will
pass through the area. These, along with increasing moisture due to
stronger southerly flow, will allow precipitation chances to
increase on Wednesday.

No real changes in the temperature forecast throughout the period
without any major airmass changes. Therefore, highs in the mid 80s
and lows in the low to mid 60s still seem reasonable and in line
with available guidance.

&&


.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The upper flow will become northwest across the area during the Long
Term, and this will allow a couple of cold fronts to move through.
The result will be chances for rain Thursday and across parts of the
area during the weekend.

There is some uncertainty on how much moisture the front during the
weekend will have, so confidence is low on the rain chances then.

Temperatures will be near average.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 300600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

High pressure will build over central Indiana and dry air is
advecting in. Forecast soundings show a decent inversion developing
but still a healthy dewpoint depression. Crossover temperatures
indicate a little fog potential as do light and variable winds, but
still some boundary layer mixing from slightly higher winds off the
surface and some cirrus should prevent fog development. Cannot rule
out some patchy ground fog at the outlying sites near daybreak from
previous rainfall but if it happens should be brief.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/TDUD
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP



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