Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282239
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
639 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place through the early
part of the work week, with chances for thunderstorms at times
through Wednesday, before a broad area of surface high pressure
moves into the area and brings cooler and drier conditions to
central Indiana.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Isolated showers and storms have managed to develop in a couple of
spots this afternoon, but the bulk of this activity has remained
along an axis north of central indiana and scattered to the south.
Cannot rule out isolated storms through the afternoon and early
evening and will carry low pops as a result. Any activity should
dissipate with the loss of heating and the majority of the night
will be dry as a result.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable overnight, and temps should
be near persistence with no change in airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Will again carry thunder chances mainly tomorrow afternoon as in
the absence of more significant upper level support, any storms
will be largely diurnally driven. Surface high pressure nudging
further into the area should provide a dry spell Monday night into
much of Tuesday before an upstream cold front begins to approach
the area. The best chance for storms with this frontal system will
be Wednesday as it traverses the area.

Consensus numbers appeared reasonable throughout the period, with
the exception of a minor bump upward on Monday highs as
thicknesses suggest similar temperatures to today should be
reached.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Big change in store for the long term as models and ensembles in
good agreement that strong high pressure in the wake of a cold
front will bring dry...cooler and much drier air to the area.
Regional blend handles this well. So, stuck with afternoon highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Saturday and lower to mid
80s Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s look
good as well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 290000Z TAFS/...

Issued at 638 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Widely scattered convection continues across the area within
an unstable air mass with lifted indices in the -8 to -10 range.
Don`t see much in the way of upper level support for this
convection, so expecting most of the convective threat to
end by 290200Z or so. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and
gusty shifting winds in and near convective areas. CB based
around 040.

Otherwise, crossover temperatures suggest IFR conditions in fog
should develop after 290600Z tonight. Low confidence in LIFR
conditions as a light gradient may help keep the air mixed up
a bit. Due to an expected light wind off the city, threat for IFR
conditions at KIND is lower than the other terminals.

Outside of convective areas, surface winds 6 kts or less tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



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