Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 202307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
707 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DURING
THE NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

ORGANIZED LIFT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...LIFT
DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT STRONG...BUT THE PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER
COMES CLOSE TO SATURATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO
WITH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AS REMNANTS
OF SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
LIFT AGAIN DOESN/T LOOK TOO STRONG...BUT PROBABLY ADEQUATE FOR
PRECIPITATION GENERATION. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AT THAT TIME.

LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY THAT A LINGERING POP PROBABLY WON/T BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL GO DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION APPEARS
TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT WHERE THE GUIDANCE WILL BE
NUDGED DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY. FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WILL DOWNPLAY THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FRIDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE COOL AND DRY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

SOME MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS FROM THIS LOW TO TENNESSEE.  MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW QUICKLY RAIN MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY.
WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY.

OVERALL A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE.  ONLY MINOR
CHANCES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
OUR AREA MOVES TO THE EAST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SPARK SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE TERMINALS TO FALL
BELOW VFR...WHICH HAS SO FAR ONLY BEEN INDICATED AT SITE KIND AFTER
04Z ON THE 22ND.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ONLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS LATE.
ON MONDAY THERE MAY BE SCATTERED CU BY LATE MORNING WITH
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF
7 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP TO 12 KNOTS MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...SMF

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