Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 021005
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WEEK WILL SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO BELOW
AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGEST STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RESIDE.

EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS RADAR SHOWS
RAIN EXTENDING WELL BACK INTO MISSOURI AND AN UPPER JET STILL MOVING
THROUGH. EXPECT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT AS STEERING WINDS VEER AND
BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL GO HIGH POPS BEFORE 12Z AND USE
A PRE-FIRST PERIOD IN THE TEXT FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE
A THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

AFTER 12Z WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTH BUT TAPER TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST AND COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST
AREAS DRY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPERATURES TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN THIS MORNING HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS.
MAV MAY BE OVERDOING EXTENT OF DRIER AIR THAT WORKS INTO THE AREA
SINCE FLOW REMAINS MORE ZONAL. WILL GO WARMER THAN MAV MOS FOR LOWS
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
MENTION POPS ACROSS THE AREA. TOOK A BLEND OF MOS FOR HIGHS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT AGAIN
FORCING DOESN/T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. SREF POPS ARE LOW SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
NOT SURE THAT ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP AND SREF POPS ARE AGAIN
LOW...BUT SINCE MOST OF THE AREA ALREADY HAD POPS IN DID NOT WANT TO
FLIP-FLOP. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WITH WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND THEN TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRY WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REGIONAL BLEND GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH POPS DECREASING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF MARKEDLY TO THE 70S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 021200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OVER WITH AT HUF AND IND AFTER 13Z AND BMG AFTER 15Z. KEPT VCSH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND AT LAF THROUGH 15Z...HUF AND IND THROUGH 19Z
AND BMG THROUGH 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NEAR AND
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH ALL THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
RAIN...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...SHOULD
SEE SOME FOG. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC CATEGORIES AND TIMING
ARE NOT GREAT THIS EARLY IN THE GAME. FOR NOW...WENT MVFR AT IND AND
LAF AND IFR AT HUF AND BMG AFTER 06Z. ALSO HINTED AT POSSIBILITY OF
LOW CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LOW DECK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

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