Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 040749
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON SATURDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AN UPPER LOW.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
CORRELATES WELL WITH COLD FRONT PLACEMENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO START IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER WED 09Z...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED 12Z. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE
WED 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT PERIOD.

DYNAMICS WILL START TO WANE BY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO...WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MODELS WERE IN
AGREEMENT FOR TEMPERATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA/ TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY IN
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
TOMORROW MORNING...UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE NECESSARY.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS MOVE
THIS FRONT NORTH BACK INTO INDIANA BY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS DRY SUNDAY.  THE GFS AND GEMNH MODELS
KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH DRY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE 00Z EURO
IS A QUICK OUTLIER IN SPREADING SHOWERS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.  I BELIEVE THE
EURO MIGHT BE TOO QUICK...BUT SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE POPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP THEM IN FOR NOW.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
SUNDAY AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT.  IN MOST CASES STAYED
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE ENOUGH 18Z-21Z TO PULL THEM.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
TODAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS NOT GREAT BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TREND IS GOOD. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z...HUF AND IND AROUND 18Z
AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.