Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241020
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
RELATIVELY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CUT OFF AND BEGIN SLOWLY SPINNING THROUGH THE
AREA...MAKING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...AND AS SUCH FEEL FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
ONLY INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
MID 70S SOUTHWEST...COMPARABLE TO UPSTREAM TEMPS...AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE WARMEST MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT RUNS...AND NOW EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO NOT
REACH THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR LATER...EXITING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WILL CONCENTRATE POPS AROUND THE
03-09Z TIME FRAME AND HOLD ONTO SOME POPS THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. K
INDICES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC.
WILL CONTINUE WITH DEFINITE SHOWERS AND CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION AS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME FRAME IS NOT IDEAL AND STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY SAP SOME OF THE ENERGY
THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS IN THE AREA. DAY ONE
OUTLOOK IS ONLY FOR GENERAL THUNDER AND THIS IS REASONABLE.

EXPECT REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TO BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT. SOME
INDICATION THAT LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH THEN...DRY
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST COOLER
CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR FRIDAY MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSOLATION/WARMING EARLY
IN THE DAY. WENT NEAR THE WARMER MOS BLEND ON SATURDAY...WHICH
APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK ON MINS...BUT DID TWEAK THESE A BIT
FOR TONIGHT TO NEARER SURFACE WETBULB PROGS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE
MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THIS PATTERN IS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING CUTOFF
FROM THE MEAN FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN U S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY DRY AND MILD WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE REGION. REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...EXTENDING WEST TO
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...EXPECT MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN AND CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING IN
THE 60S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 70S BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SIGNS THAT IT WILL BECOME INFUSED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY RETROGRADING FROM NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE UPPER LOW AND ENSURE IMPACTS LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS IT PINWHEELS EAST SLOWLY.
EXPECT COOL DAMP UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS IN
ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALL DAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GUST AT 20-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES WELL MIXED.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST SLOWLY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO
THE REGION BY LATE EVENING. NOW APPEARS RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING AT THE EARLIEST...
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF. RH
PROGS SUGGESTIVE OF CEILINGS SLIPPING DOWN TO 1000-1500FT LATE
TONIGHT WITHIN RAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THE TERMINALS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

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