Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 030837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
333 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Seasonably Cool & Breezy Today...

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Today...High pressure will build across the midwest with low
level winds veering more ENE today and becoming breezy across
coastal areas this afternoon as a weak coastal trough develops.
Dry conditions will prevail. Near seasonal high temperatures today
under partly to mostly cloudy skies as mid and high clouds stream
over the area from the west...downstream of developing low
pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico with highs ranging in
the mid/upper 60s across SE GA and along the lower 70s
inland south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

Tonight...Warmer with low temperatures generally ranging in the
50s inland to lower 60s coast/river basin as coastal trough axis
begins to lift northward after midnight and morph into a warm
front as the low pressure system across the western Gulf of Mexico
drifts farther east. Low level clouds will begin to skirt the
coast along the warm front...but measurable rainfall not expected.

Sun...Warm front will lift northward across SE Ga into the afternoon
with increasing low level clouds under warmer southerly flow. Dry
conditions will continue across NE FL due to mid level
subsidence...with a low chance of afternoon showers only advertised
at this time across SE GA generally along and near the Altamaha
River basin near the meandering warm frontal zone. Winds will be
breezy at times across NE Florida where more insolation is expected
as high temperatures warm into the upper 70s to near 80 inland to
mid 70s coast while more cloud cover across SE GA near the warm
front will keep daytime temperatures more mild in the mid/upper 60s.

Sunday night through Monday night...Frontal boundary will linger
across s Ga with increasing moisture(Pwats >2") in a deep sw flow
ahead of upper low over Tx. Rain chances will be increasing with
best rain chances across s Ga where more lift and moisture will
exist. Winds fields and vertical wind shear will become strong as
shortwave lifts ne Monday night. A few strong to marginally severe
storms are possible despite weak instability over ne Fl/se Ga.
Expect rain to become likely with embedded isolated thunderstorms
Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will be much above normal
with warm breezy and humid conditions.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Weakening upper short wave
will lift ne from the Tn Valley to the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday as a surface cold front pushes east across the area.
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will be ending from the west by
Tuesday afternoon as drier air moves into the region. Models push a
secondary cold front through on Thursday with GFS faster and drier
than the ECMWF. Will continue with concensus of low pops Thursday
and Thursday night. Much colder and windy conditions Thursday night
and Friday as upper trough reaches the east coast and strong surface
high builds in from the west. Above normal temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will fall to near average on Thursday and below average


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected today with passing mid and
high clouds and breezy onshore flow with gusts near 20 kts at
times impacting coastal county terminals. SREF indicated low
probabilities of 20-30% of MVFR cigs lifting northward along a
warm frontal axis along the local coastline tonight into Sunday
which could impact coastal locations including SGJ...CRG and SSI


.MARINE...Marginal small craft exercise caution conditions expected
today with winds 15-20 kts and winds nearing 5-6 ft within the outer
waters near the Gulf Stream. South winds increase late Mon into Tue
as low level gradient increases ahead of approaching Gulf of Mexico
low pressure system with advisory conditions likely over the outer
waters and gusts near gale force at times. Initial cold front
expected to push south of the waters late Tue..then a stronger but
dry reinforcing cold front expected to press south of the waters
late Thu/Fri.

Rip Currents: Marginal moderate risk today for NE Florida Coast.
Low risk for SE GA. Low risk expected Sunday.


AMG  65  49  69  60 /   0  10  20  40
SSI  63  55  69  62 /   0  10  10  30
JAX  67  56  74  64 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  68  61  74  65 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  71  55  78  63 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  73  56  79  63 /   0   0  10   0




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