Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260246
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
946 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

...Brief Return to Seasonable Temperatures Late Tonight and
Sunday...

.Update...
Late evening surface analysis depicts a cold front extending
southwestward from the Georgia coastal waters, across the
Interstate 10 corridor in northeast Florida and approaching the
Nature coast of Florida. A few stratocumlus clouds were found
ahead of the front over north central Florida. High pressure (1022
millibars) was centered over the Ozarks and was building into the
southeastern states in the wake of the front. Aloft...a potent
shortwave trough was progressing through New England and eastern
Canada, leaving zonal westerly flow in its wake over the southern
tier of the nation. A large dewpoint gradient exists along the
front that is traversing our region, with values in the lower 60s
to the south of Interstate 10. Meanwhile, dewpoints are rapidly
falling in the wake of the front, with values down 15 degrees here
at the WFO during the past 90 minutes. Dewpoints have crashed
into the 20s for locations northwest of Waycross. Cold air
advection is lagging this front, with local temperatures remaining
in the 60s as of 02Z.

Northwesterly winds will briefly increase overnight as cold air
advection overspreads our region from the west. Skies will quickly
clear out in the wake of the front as high pressure continues to
build into the southeastern states. A tighter pressure gradient
will keep winds elevated in the 10-15 mph range at the coast
overnight, with winds inland becoming northerly and decreasing to
around 5 mph by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will fall
rather quickly during the predawn hours, with lows ranging from
near 40 over inland southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee
Valley to the upper 40s along the coast and in north central
Florida. Sunny skies will prevail on Sunday, with high pressure
building eastward towards the Carolina coast. Winds will decrease
in coastal locations during the late morning hours, and will
become onshore by the mid afternoon hours. Highs along and east of
Interstate 95 will be held to the mid/upper 60s, which is near to
slightly below late February climo. Cold air advection will cease,
allowing inland highs to rebound to near 70 in southeast Georgia
and the lower 70s for the Suwannee Valley and north central
Florida.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through
Sunday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen just off the surface
during the next few hours, with speeds around 1500 feet near 25
knots from 03Z-09Z tonight. Surface winds should remain around 10
knots through 09Z and will decrease towards sunrise. Winds will
become northeasterly around 10 knots by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
A cold front has moved into the Georgia coastal waters and will
cross the northeast Florida waters by midnight. Winds will become
northwesterly and will increase to around 20 knots during the
overnight hours. A Small Craft Advisory remains posted for both
the near shore and offshore waters through the mid-morning hours
on Sunday. Winds will become northerly towards sunrise as high
pressure builds over the southeastern states in the wake of the
front. Our local pressure gradient will quickly relax on Sunday,
with winds becoming northeasterly and decreasing below caution
levels during the afternoon hours. Seas offshore will likely
fall to caution levels of 4-6 feet during the afternoon hours.
High pressure will then quickly shift offshore of the Carolinas on
Sunday evening, allowing for onshore winds to develop, with speeds
just below caution levels offshore. A warm front will cross our
waters from south to north on Monday, with southeasterly winds
strengthening to caution levels offshore and near caution levels
in the near shore waters. Seas will build to caution levels
offshore and should remain in that range through Tuesday. A cold
front will then enter the southeastern states on Wednesday,
resulting in southwesterly winds strengthening to caution levels
offshore. This front will cross our waters on Thursday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk will continue through Monday as
onshore winds develop.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A much drier air mass will plunge into our region overnight and
will persist inland through Sunday. Minimum humidity values of
15-20% is expected tomorrow at inland locations under dry and
cooler northerly flow, with winds around 10 mph. Fire danger
indices and fuel moisture will not support critical fire weather
conditions on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  69  43  77 /   0   0  10  40
SSI  46  64  52  71 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  43  67  47  77 /   0   0  10  30
SGJ  49  66  55  76 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  44  73  47  80 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  47  75  50  81 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Nelson/Shuler/Corless



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