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000
FXUS62 KJAX 101825
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WARM TEMPS TUE & WED BEFORE THE COOL DOWN WED NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT-WED/...

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION SSE TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL LESS PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...ONCE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT OUR
SOUTHERN FL TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTN. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 50S INLAND...WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG
FORMATION INLAND. ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND NE FL...WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.

TUE...ANOTHER WARM DAY AS DEEP LAYER SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
INLAND WHILE ANOTHER LATE AFTN ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE KEEPS THE
COAST COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT-WED...A SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION TUE NIGHT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEEPENS SURFACE CYCLOGENISIS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WESTERN GA ZONES EARLY WED
MORNING WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL PHASE WITH MOISTURE...WHILE A
SECONDARY AREA OF ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL POSITION ALONG THE FL
GULF COAST REGION WHERE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
COINCIDE WITH WEAKENING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. BETWEEN THESE TWO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCE AREAS OF 50-60%...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT INFILTRATING EASTWARD ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY WED. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES AND THEN
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY WED...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BECOME OUT
OF PHASE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WED
AFTN WITH CLOUD BREAKS PER THE DRY SLOT...THERE COULD BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN JUST SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 850 MB WINDS 30-40
KTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW...WITH
WIDESPREAD VALUES UP TO 0.10" WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25"
POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE WED AFTN AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS OVER THE
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AS THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BREAK UP WED AFTN...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL CLEAR THE AREA AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BY THU
MORNING UNDER BRISK NW WINDS NEAR 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-35
MPH POSSIBLE AS PRESSURES RISE WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER
TX.

.LONG TERM.../THU-MON/...

MUCH COOLER AND WINDY NW WINDS EXPECTED THU WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH FRI WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND
LOCALES THU NIGHT. FRI ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND MODIFIES THE
AIRMASS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY THE WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE
CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHEARED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH
RETURNS CHANCES OF RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. AT THIS TIME...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
BOTH TIMING AND STRUCTURE THUS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WNW
WINDS 10 KTS PREVAIL INLAND WHILE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST BECOME
SOUTH WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE..AND ADVERTISED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT JAX...VQQ...AND GNV AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH FL COAST. WINDS INCREASE TUE NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS WED
THROUGH THU JUST AHEAD OF AND TRAILING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS RELAX LATE THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILDS NNE OF THE AREA
SAT WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS. LOW RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED
TUE AND WED DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. BREEZY AND WARM WSW WINDS
WILL NEAR 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR 30
MPH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. RHS
WILL FALL NEAR 25% INLAND ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  81  56  78 /   0  20  60  60
SSI  55  72  58  77 /   0  10  50  40
JAX  53  81  56  80 /   0  10  40  40
SGJ  54  73  59  81 /   0  10  40  40
GNV  50  78  56  81 /   0  20  50  50
OCF  50  79  57  81 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET