Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 130843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WAS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OCCURRED JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
BEFORE DAWN. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 30S TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH FORECAST LOWS OF 32-34
DEGREES...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. FROST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL. HOWEVER...MILDER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BULK OF PCP MONDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK
PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...BUT NO FREEZES EXPECTED. LATER IN THE WEEK... THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT GNV BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH USHERS IN
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND
BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.