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000
FXUS62 KJAX 270210
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1010 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY...

.UPDATE...Broad mesoscale low pressure was rotating offshore of
the SE GA coast this evening, with several spokes or troughs
pivoting around the center. A persistent trough with fading
convection was sliding slowly south of the I-10 corridor this hour
with mainly just light to moderate stratiform rainfall and
isolated tstorm activity. Another area of convection was across
SE GA from Statenville toward Kingsland. Another area of convection
around the low was just north of the Altamaha River basin, and
through the night it is this band that will have to be monitored
as it appears to have the best potential for sliding southward and
impacting parts of coastal SE GA through the early morning hours
and bringing waves of heavy rainfall due to coastal convergence.

Farther south over NE FL south of I-10...a chance of showers with
isolated tstorms will continue through the night with boundary
mergers bringing a chance of localized heavy rainfall, however
overall after midnight rain chances will be more isolated across
NE FL compared to the convergence across SE GA.

Conditions will be mild and muggy overnight with lows ranging in
the 70s under mostly cloudy skies. There could be some patchy
shallow ground fog toward sunrise especially where heavy
rainfall recently occurred.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR with fading convection. Some low
stratus at times overnight with periods of MVFR to LIFR cigs
possible. Light and variable winds expected overnight as broad
low pressure lingers across the region. Rainfall potential will be
highest near SSI late tonight through Thursday morning where
convergent band of showers/tstorms is expected to position where
more persistent low ceilings are possible.

&&

.MARINE...SSE winds 10-15 kts with combined seas 3 ft or less.
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters through
Thursday as broad low pressure meanders over the region.
Convection is expected to be concentrated near the SE GA coast
later tonight and Thu morning.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  74  93 /  30  60  20  40
SSI  77  86  78  89 /  80  60  40  40
JAX  75  91  74  92 /  70  70  30  40
SGJ  77  90  76  91 /  50  50  30  40
GNV  74  91  73  91 /  40  40  20  40
OCF  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/Cordero/Corless