Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 301804
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
204 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.NEAR TERM/.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The combination of a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to
the North, surface based instability and sea breeze convergence
will lead to isolated showers and storms. The convection will
mainly be inland.

A cold front will cross the region from the Northwest late Friday.
A prefrontal trough is expected to produce convection over the
region ahead of the front for late Tonight into Friday afternoon.
Models have been decreasing coverage and intensity of the
convection over the last few runs. While a few strong storms will
still be possible, the convective coverage is expected to be
isolated to scattered. Expect much of the activity to be in the
morning Friday, with skies clearing in the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.SHORT TERM /Friday Night Through Saturday Night/...
An upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio Valley
Friday night, and then into the western Atlantic off the coast of
New Jersey by Saturday morning. Another trough will push into the
northeastern conus Saturday night. Further west, an upper low over
the Four Corners region will become a positively trough as it
pushes into Texas Saturday night. Upper level heights will build
across the region ahead of the trough through the period. At the
surface, two areas of low pressure near/across Pennsylvania will
slide east, with the eastern low becoming dominant by Saturday
morning. A weak frontal boundary will move through the region
Friday night, and slightly cooler temperatures are expected in the
mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest towards the coast. Weak surface
high pressure will build over the region on Saturday, and light
winds and very warm conditions will continue. Highs will rise into
the 80s.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...

Southern stream shortwave over Texas and northern Mexico on
Sunday will push east and cut off near the ArkLaTex region Monday
morning. The upper low is then forecast to push eastward across
the southeast, and into northern Georgia Monday night. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across
eastern Texas on Sunday, and then move then across the deep south
on Monday. A warm front near the northern part of southeast
Georgia Sunday night will lift northward ahead of the low on
Monday. This boundary may produce strong to severe storms Monday
into Monday night as instability and vertical wind shear increase.
40-60% of the top 15 CIPS Analogs is showing is showing at least
1 severe weather report within 110km of a point across our region,
with 30-40% of the top 15 members showing at least 5 severe
weather reports within 110km across northeast Florida Monday
evening/night. QPF amounts around 0.5 inches are forecast, with
amounts up to 2 inches possible. Some model differences in timing
still exist with the GFS a little faster than the ECMWF. A weak
frontal boundary is forecast to push into the region on Tuesday
and washout. A broad upper trough is forecast to carve out east of
the intermountain west on Wednesday, and a cold front is forecast
to move into the southeast by Wednesday evening.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
period. Highs are forecast to be in the 80s to near 90 each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and an isolated storm will be possible this
afternoon and evening. A brief restriction will be possible. A
cold front will cross the region on Friday, with scattered showers
and storms developing ahead of it Overnight Tonight. A few brief
restrictions will be possible Overnight into early afternoon on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front will lift Northeast of area waters Tonight, as a cold
front approaches from the Northwest. This front will cross the
region late Friday into Friday night. Scattered showers and storms
will be expected ahead of this front. High pressure will build
for the weekend. A cold front will cross area waters Monday into
Tuesday bringing the potential for a round of storms. High
pressure will build for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  84  55  85 /  30  20   0   0
SSI  66  83  61  78 /  30  30   0   0
JAX  63  88  58  85 /  30  30   0   0
SGJ  66  87  59  81 /  20  30   0   0
GNV  62  84  55  87 /  20  30   0   0
OCF  62  84  57  86 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Struble/McGinnis



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