Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 160705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
205 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Another cool morning for the region with temperatures in the low
to mid 30s across southeast Georgia and interior northeast
Florida, with 40s along the coast of northeast Florida due to
light onshore flow. Light winds and clear skies will allow for
areas to widespread frost to develop, and a Frost Advisory will
remain in effect until 9 am this morning.

An upper low near Chicago this morning will begin to open up into
an upper trough, and the trough will dig southeastward across the
Plains and into the Tennessee Valley late tonight. 125-135kt jet
streak will develop over the region this afternoon and tonight,
and increasing high clouds are expected. Surface high pressure
will build into the region from the north today ahead of a strong
cold front pushing into the Southeast. The front will approach
southeast Georgia late tonight. A brief warm-up in temperatures are
expected today, with highs only slightly below normal to near
normal. Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s
across interior southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley and coastal
northeast Florida, the mid 50s along the coast of southeast
Georgia, and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of northeast

A weak area of low pressure will develop off the coast of the
Carolinas and then move quickly northeastward off the coast of the
Mid Atlantic states tonight. A front will develop along this
boundary and extend towards south Florida. Winds over the region
will shift to the northwest ahead of the surface boundary across
the Southeast tonight. Winds will be light across the southeastern
portion of northeast Florida, and patchy fog may develop.
Otherwise, dry and slightly warmer conditions will prevail. Lows
Wednesday morning from Waycross northwestward will likely occur
after the frontal boundary moves through in the morning, and a
couple flurries or ice pellets are possible.

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday night/...

Cold front is expected to move into SE GA Wednesday morning. Could
be enough moisture associated with this feature for a brief period
of rain/sleet over SE GA, otherwise a dry frontal passage is
expected, with a band of clouds. The precipitation type forecast
can be enhanced closer to the event, based on timing and expected
thermal profiles.

High pressure will build to the Northwest behind this boundary
with colder airmass filtering in through the day Wednesday, and
as the high builds closer the cold airmass will settle in for
Wednesday night into Thursday with mainly clear skies.
Temperatures will peak Wednesday morning in many locations then
remain steady or even fall Wednesday afternoon. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the lower to middle 20s leading to a hard freeze
over the majority of the region, except for between the St Johns
and the Sea, where readings will be closer to freezing. Wednesday
night will likely be the coldest night of the season thus far.

The high will build overhead Thursday afternoon through Friday,
then start moving to the East Friday night. Temperatures will
struggle once again Thursday with highs mainly in the 40s, and
another freeze to hard freeze Thursday night. As cold advection
subsides temperatures will start to make a recovery, but still
below seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/...

High pressure will remain to the East of the region through Sunday
night leading to a period with warm advection. As moisture
increases through this period, clouds will increase on Sunday,
with a few showers possible. Temperatures should average above
seasonal normals for the weekend.

The flow Sunday afternoon into night will be from the Southeast
bringing the warmer and more moist airmass across the relatively
cooler waters along the coast leading to the potential for sea fog
which could advect inland. A weakening cold front will move East
into the region Monday, bringing a chance for rain.


VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds
overnight will become northeast 5-10 knots on Tuesday. Winds
will become light and variable again Tuesday night. High clouds
will increase through the period.


The pressure gradient will weaken today as high pressure builds
into the region. A strong cold front will push through the
Atlantic waters on Wednesday, with SCA conditions developing once
again. High pressure will then build into the region from the west
through the end of the week. High pressure is then forecast to
build east of the region late in the weekend.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents southeast Georgia beaches,
and Moderate risk of rip currents northeast Florida beaches today.


AMG  59  34  41  24 /   0   0  20   0
SSI  55  41  46  28 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  61  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  59  42  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  39  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  41  54  26 /   0   0   0   0


FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Alachua-Baker-
     Bradford-Clay-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-
     Inland Nassau-Putnam-Suwannee-Union.



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