Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 241938
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HOT WITH WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED AND ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE W/SW FLOW EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL AREAS
ACROSS INLD SE GA NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND PORTIONS OF INLD NE FL
SOUTH OF I-10. ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...ISOLD EVENING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS COASTAL NE FL ENDS
EARLY OR PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE ISOLD TO SCTD
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR INLD SE GA WILL END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND...A TRAILING VORTICITY LOBE WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TOWARDS
NOON...WITH ACTIVITY ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ACTIVITY WILL MERGE ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHERE A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S
AT THE COAST...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED.
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
GULF WATERS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MARION COUNTY AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SCRUTINIZING THE 925-700 MB STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS...A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT 200 TO 300 MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE
PREVALENT THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH
SOME PULSE TYPE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH DRIER MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DURING THE WEEKEND...MORE SO ON SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING
UP THE PENINSULA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MIGRATING OFFSHORE
NEAR THE NASSAU/DUVAL COUNTY COASTAL AREAS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ON SUNDAY...THE PULSE TYPE STORMS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE WITH MORE
DISCERNIBLE DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.  POPS WILL
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY...THEN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO SE
GEORGIA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE OVER NE FL DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...WASHING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE ST. MARY`S RIVER.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DEBILITATED...HARDLY DISCERNIBLE AND RESIDE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY...WITH A NLY FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SE GA AND THE NORTH TIER COUNTIES IN NE FL
WITH JUST ISOLD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
FLORIDA...A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS WESTERLY REGIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA COUNTIES WHILE BRINGING MORE OF AN INCREASED
RAIN CHANCE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PONTE VEDRA TO
GAINESVILLE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME STRONG STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE
LIMITED SHEAR WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST MODELS REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF PACKAGE WILL FEATURE ONLY VCTS AS RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AT 20-30% OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKLY AT SUNSET AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE 5SM RANGE AT
KGNV AND KVQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY NOCTURNAL SURGE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE AND MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  96 /  20  50  30  30
SSI  77  91  77  91 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  73  94  73  94 /  10  50  40  40
SGJ  75  90  75  91 /  10  50  40  40
GNV  72  93  72  94 /  10  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  74  93 /  10  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/CORDERO/SHULER





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