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000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR OVER INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTRATED INTO
N-CENTRAL FL IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW RESTING NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. WITH THAT
SAID...WE HAVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO ALONG THE SE GA COAST. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SURROUNDS THE FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SWD INTO EXTREME NE FL. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW AN
INVERSION AT 800 MB...WITH DRY AND WARM AIR IN MID/HIGH LEVELS.
LLVL VORTICITY NEAR THE COAST IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND OVER NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED POSSIBLY ALONG A LAND BREEZE.
THE HRRR HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND DEPICTS SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE AND OVER COASTAL
ZONES NORTH OF JAX BEACH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z
SHOWERS DISSIPATE OVER THE WATERS AND CONTINUE WITH THE SEA BREEZE
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO BRUNSWICK AND JESUP. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE. HRRR SHOWS
SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 FOR REMAINDER OF NE FL COAST...AND
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF TO SINGLE
DIGITS FARTHER INLAND WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE
GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS AND ARE MAINLY OFFSHORE EXCEPT
OVER NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE SE GA COAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPDATE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /  10  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/SHASHY