Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281019
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
519 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...COLD AND DAMP CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TONIGHT...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1041
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALOFT...OUR
REGION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN STOUT
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGHING THAT
BLANKETS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED A LENGTHY BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY E-NE INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST FL. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT INLAND SOUTHEAST GA...AND TEMPS IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FL HAVE MOSTLY RISEN TO THE LOW/MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES FROM
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS...AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE THROUGH OUR REGION. N-NE
WINDS ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY ONLY TOUCH 25
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...SO WE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON. HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE HRRR KEEPS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST FL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL...WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA COAST TO THE MID 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.

MEANWHILE...THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 40S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...OR MORE THAN 20 DEGREES BELOW
LATE FEB CLIMO.

THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN A SLOW RELAXATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT
IN THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
PERSISTS. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAINFALL...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BARELY MEASURING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
WIDE RANGE IN LOWS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WEDGE KEEPING LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE THROUGH THE 50S
FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST RESULTING IN DECREASING
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOWER POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WEDGE IS LIKELY HOLD IN ACROSS SE GA
PRODUCING A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THERE. A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH... WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE EVIDENCE OF A WEDGE
HOLDING ON THERE... TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE
VEERING WINDS AND FEW PEAKS OF SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG TO FORM. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE
IN A FEW SPOTS. GUIDANCE APPEARED TOO COOL AND WENT WITH MIN TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR
SOUTH.

MONDAY......A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION AND WITH WEAK DYNAMICS EXPECTING WARMER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. AFTER MORNING FOG...SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH AFTER TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS OF THE FAR SOUTH...LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REST
OF THE INLAND AREAS...TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL STALL OUT NORTH OF THE AREA BUT MAY
PRODUCE OF FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG. MIN TEMPS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CARBON WHILE
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN A STEADY WARM UP EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID WEEK WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SE ZONES FRIDAY AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 15Z/16Z. VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FT ARE EXPECTED AT SSI
THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS THEN THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH
SPEEDS AT 1500 FT IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. THESE STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 15Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS...CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS AT SSI NEAR 15
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER
SUNRISE. MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE 15Z-
18Z TIME FRAME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY EVENING OFFSHORE. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...CREATING OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE MAY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LATER
TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...SEAS OVER THE NEAR SHORE GEORGIA
WATERS MAY APPROACH 8 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 10 FEET
POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE
TODAY...ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS NEAR SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BREAKERS EXPECTED IN
THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE AT THE BEACHES. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  42  60  48 /  50  50  30  20
SSI  50  47  59  51 /  60  60  30  20
JAX  54  51  67  51 /  80  60  30  10
SGJ  60  57  67  55 /  80  70  30  10
GNV  59  54  73  56 /  60  40  30  10
OCF  66  58  77  58 /  60  40  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/PETERSON


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