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000
FXUS62 KJAX 082016
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH. AREAS NEAR ALTAMAHA COULD STAY CLOUDY HOWEVER. AMPLE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
AND FOG TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS
REMAINS STOUT. FOG MAY AGAIN PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE SEA FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING...AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ONCE THE FOG ERODES
OVER LAND...TEMPERATURES WILL SKYROCKET INTO THE LOWER 80S
INLAND...WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR
LOCATIONS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. HIGHS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHEN SEA FOG ERODES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND SEA FOG IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH...IN THE 60S...AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AS A COLD FRONT TAKES SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHICH IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS. THIS FRONT WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY IT AS IT PROGRESSES FROM INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON TUES
AFTERNOON TO NORTHEAST FL BY TUES EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG AND SEA FOG MAY AGAIN LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUES...AND HIGHS WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS OF NORTHEAST FL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 70S IN SOUTHEAST GA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON TUES NIGHT...AS LOWS
FALL BACK TO 45-50 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA...WHILE MOST AREAS IN
NORTHEAST FL REMAIN IN THE 55-60 RANGE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY LATER THIS WEEK. CYCLOGENESIS IS SUGGESTED
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF GA/CAROLINAS BY LATE
WED/THURS...WHILE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR NOW...WE SIDED WITH THE 12Z GFS/NAM
OVER THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS A N/NE WIND
SURGE AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FARTHER NORTH...WHICH
WOULD BRING OFFSHORE WINDS INTO OUR REGION. COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA REGARDLESS...AND WE KEPT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA FOR
WED...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON THURS. A BRIEF
SPELL OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THURS AND FRI...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.

&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF KJAX THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER KSSI. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT LATE
MONDAY MORNING...TRENDING TOWARD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FOG
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ANTICIPATED IN THE INNER WATERS. SEA FOG MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN ON MON IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON MON NIGHT INTO TUES. MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS ON MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GA COASTAL WATERS ON TUES
AFTERNOON...AND THE NE FL WATERS ON TUES EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY LATE WED AND THURS...BUT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON WHEN AND WHERE LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  79  62  75 /  10  30  40  50
SSI  61  76  64  75 /  10  20  30  40
JAX  60  81  61  80 /  10  10  20  30
SGJ  63  80  65  79 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  62  82  62  81 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  62  83  62  82 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/WALKER