Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 310132
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
932 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Update...Showers and storms continue to slowly move southeastward
over NE FL...developing along sea breeze and outflow boundaries
as well as general low level trough extending SW from the remnants
of Bonnie. As expected...intensity of convection has weakened this
evening as noted by max reflectivity echoes reaching lower
altitudes. Little to no convection occurred over SE GA where
SBCAPE values were much lower compared to NE FL.

For the update...main changes earlier tonight were to tweak pops
in NE FL in the southeastern zones. Think most convection should
wind down by midnight...though can`t discount a couple of rogue
showers over land and the marine zones...due to some weak upper
level disturbances shifting southeast in the northwest flow aloft.
No changes basically to the min temps in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.Aviation...A few showers in the vicinity of VQQ...GNV...and SGJ
early this evening. VFR prevails...with some chance of MVFR VSBY
from 09z-12z. Isolated to scattered storms expected Tuesday
afternoon and for now VCTS fcst starting about 20Z at GNV.

&&

.Marine...S to SW flow near 15 kt or less tonight will turn
toward the W by 12z Tue. Seas generally at 2-4 ft near shore and
up to 3-5 ft offshore. Isolated convection possible overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  92  70  92 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  71  88  73  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  69  92  71  91 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  71  89  72  88 /  30  20  10  20
GNV  68  92  70  92 /  40  30  30  20
OCF  69  92  70  92 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Peterson/Shuler



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