Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 060844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.