Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250155
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Beautiful evening here on the mountain, and all across eastern
Kentucky. Forecast looks on target and no substantive changes were
needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Cooler and drier air continues to invade the region in the wake of
the cold frontal passage last night. A rather extensive field of
fair weather cumulus is evident on satellite across the OH valley
and most of eastern KY with some cirrus streaming in from the
southwest. The cumulus field will diminish this evening, and
mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with temperatures
falling into the 50s. Some fog will form tonight, but it should be
confined to the river valleys. On Sunday dewpoints will continue
to fall reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s, thus providing for
quite comfortable conditions with maximum temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s. A reinforcing shot of cool air will occur
Sunday night as another cold front moves across the area. There
will be very little moisture associated with this, with little or
no increase in cloud cover and no precipitation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Upper level cyclonic flow will continue to hold strong from the
Northwestern Passages into the Gulf of Mexico early in the week,
keeping below normal temperatures in the offing. Surface high
pressure building into the mid-Mississippi Valley will bring a
secondary shot of cooler air into eastern Kentucky, keeping high
temperatures in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the low-mid
50s.

An upper impulse swinging through the Great Lakes Monday will be
followed by another more subtle wave approaching out of the
Midwest into the evening and overnight hours. Moisture profiles
currently look adequate enough to at least warrant slight chance
PoPs given the presence of upper forcing. Will have to continue
monitoring moisture availability without any real semblance of
return flow into eastern Kentucky, but would believe some top-down
moistening will be in store as the forcing draws nearer. MUCAPE
looks rather anemic as expected, so kept thunder mention confined
to along the Virginia border early Tuesday afternoon given enough
moisture/lift remain in place at that time. Another surge of
cooler air will again keep temperatures confined to the 70s.

Following a ridge/valley temperature split Wednesday morning
underneath the influence of surface ridging, a warming trend will
ensue for mid-late week as temperatures rebound toward the 80
degree mark. Shower/thunderstorm chances will creep back into the
picture Thursday in the Cumberland Valley in the presence of
better return flow and storms propagating northeastward after
being orographically induced along the Cumberland Plateau.
Temperatures back in the mid 80s with dewpoints surging through
the 60s will reintroduce summer, with this type of airmass
looking to maintain itself into the weekend. Shower/storm chances
will increase Friday into the weekend as eastern Kentucky remains
immersed in southwest flow. Chances would be further increased
depending on how northern stream energy evolves, particularly in
terms of a deeper system and potential subsequent frontal boundary
nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

High pressure will continue to build into the area over the next
24 hours with a drier and cooler airmass slowly filtering into the
region. VFR conditions are expected except for some patchy fog in
the river valleys late tonight. The fog is not expected to affect
the TAF sites. An occasional ceiling around 5k ft is also
possible at times overnight as moisture noted around 850 mb keeps
some cumulus/stratocumulus around. Winds will be light and
generally from the west-northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...ABE



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