Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232030

National Weather Service Jackson KY
430 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

19z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the south starting to
yield to an inbound dry cold front to the northwest. This front`s
approach is responsible for the tightening pressure gradient
helping, along with good mixing under sunny conditions, to keep
the winds going from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph, or so, with
occasional gusts around 25 mph. These breezes, again along with
the full sunshine, support temperatures climbing into the upper
60s and low 70s. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are running in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all show Kentucky in the midst of
fairly fast northwest flow between a deep trough to the northeast
and rather flat ridging west. A weak trough will pass by to the
north tonight into Monday morning but its energy stays well off to
the northeast to have any real affect on our weather. Given the
good agreement have favored a general blend with emphasis on the
higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12, along with
some deference to the COOP MOS guidance - especially Monday

Sensible weather will feature a bit milder of a night as the winds
stay up better and the front limits the strength of the inversion.
Will allow for some river valley fog near dawn as we have had the
past couple of mornings. Another pleasant day is expected on
Monday with mostly sunny skies, breezy winds switching to the
northwest post fropa, and afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s. Drier and cooler air moves in Monday night with a
better potential for frost in the valleys early Tuesday morning.
Have added that to the grids along with a mention in the HWO.

Again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as the starting point for the
bulk of the grids with adjustments to the night-time temps for
terrain as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon a tad.
PoPs were zeroed out through the period - in line with all

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The models are in good agreement through the work week then diverge
in their solutions. At the start of the period, heights will rise as
high pressure scoots into the area from the south. This high
pressure will be over the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning, allowing lower dew points to mix down. This will lead to
the best chance of the period for some patchy frost Wednesday
morning. Winds shift to the southwest ahead of a shortwave trough
passage, allowing for warmer and moist air to infiltrate the region
Wednesday afternoon. A cold front is then expected to swing through
East Kentucky by Thursday evening with a chance for some showers
throughout the day. High pressure shifts into the area Thursday
night but quickly exits by Friday evening. Beyond Friday, the
forecast is a bit up in the air as model solutions diverge. So have
decided to remain close to the CR Superblend solution beyond Friday,
with minor changes made to the temperatures to account for night-
time inversions.

Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the period with
afternoon highs in the 60s and low 70s. Morning lows will start out
near freezing in the valleys on Wednesday morning, with all temps
moderating into the 40s/low 50s through the rest of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be the
main concern this afternoon, as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Southwest winds will be 10 kts, with gusts up to 15 and
20 kts through late afternoon. Winds will then diminish to between
and 5 and 10 kts by early this evening and continue that way
through the night before picking up again during the day Monday.




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