Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KJKL 240302

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1102 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 1101 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

Ongoing showers across portions of eastern KY are becoming more
isolated and lighter in nature. Went ahead and dropped pops over
the next couple of hours to be isolated rather than scattered to
keep in better accordance with ongoing radar trends. Also loaded
in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast for
temps, dew points, and winds was on track with current conditions.
All changes were published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast
package was sent out to reflect this change in precip coverage as

UPDATE Issued at 748 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

Have made several updates over the last few hours to cover the
line of showers moving across the area along the frontal passage.
This line has shown considerable deterioration over the last hour
or so as it heads across the far eastern tip of the CWA. Lingering
low clouds and some radar returns are still intact across portions
of central and eastern KY, so will keep isolated to scattered
showers in the forecast over the next few hours, finally moving
out by around 6Z as was originally forecast in the afternoon
package. Otherwise, made sure the near term grids were on track
with current conditions by loading in the latest observations. All
grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast
package was sent out earlier in the afternoon to include late
this afternoon wording for the line of showers moving through.
This will be updated once more to change back to tonight wording
now that the main line has passed through.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

A shortwave trough is continuing to pivot northward across the
area with an expansive area of rain continuing to slowly exit
eastern Kentucky. The widespread rain will be quickly coming to an
end. However, The cold front is just now pushing across central
Kentucky and will cross the area through this evening. This will
bring another shot of rain with the front this evening. There has
been gusts up to 35 mph already reported with the frontal passage
down around Monticello and a few stations in central Tennessee.
Should continue to see some strong wind gusts potential with the
frontal passage this evening. A lull in precipitation is expected
overnight as the boundary layer stabilizes behind the front.
However, one more shot at precipitation will come late tonight
into early Tuesday morning as one last surface trough will cross
central and northern Kentucky. The better forcing and low level
convergence with this feature will be across the northern half of
the area, so will focus the better rain chances in the north. Any
precipitation will quickly end by midday Tuesday. A very fall-like
day is anticipated for Tuesday with temperatures struggling to
rise through the 50s with a chilly southwest wind. Troughing will
hold over the region through Tuesday night and this could allow
low clouds to build into the area Tuesday night with lows dipping
into the 30s. Due to the expected clouds and still some modest
wind, not expecting much of a frost threat Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

Surface high pressure will slide east of the area on Wednesday
with the surface high east of the area by Thursday morning. Warmer
air will begin to return to the area as a warm air advection
pattern sets up Wednesday night. However valleys should decouple
Wednesday night and some frost is still possible Thursday morning,
mainly in sheltered valleys. However, latest trends point towards
a decreasing chance of frost Thursday morning.

As the upper flow temporarily becomes more zonal across the area
and then an upper trough approaches from the west warmer
temperatures will return briefly for the end of the week. However
the approaching upper level trough will move east and deepen
across the eastern United States, a cold front will push across
our area this weekend, and the coldest air of the season will
overspread eastern KY for the end of the weekend and early next
week. Another round of rain will occur with the front, with the
rainiest period of the long term portion of the forecast being
Saturday. With highs only around 50 on Saturday it will be a raw

Although there are timing differences, both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF
bring 850 temperatures down to around -5 C by late in the weekend
or early next week. While it is not very likely, it is possible
that a few flakes of snow could mix in with any lingering rain
early Sunday morning. Temperatures near or slightly below freezing
are forecast for both Sunday and Monday mornings, though Monday
morning should end up being the coldest of the two days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

After widespread rain moved through the region during the day and
again late this afternoon/evening, conditions are starting to
improve. Low clouds are hanging around though as are some isolated
to scattered radar returns, so will leave VCSH in the forecast for
the next few hours, along with MVFR CIGS. These should begin
improving generally after 4 to 6Z tonight. This improvement will
be short lived however, as another weak disturbance is set to
move across eastern KY late tonight/early Tuesday morning. This
will bring another round of isolated to scattered showers to the
TAF sites in addition to MVFR CIGS and breezy conditions, starting
around 9 to 10Z and lasting through 13 to 15Z Tuesday. After this
disturbance moves through, drier and much cooler air will push
into the region from the west, scattering out clouds and bringing
back VFR conditions as we head into the afternoon. Decent mixing
may also result in gusts between 15 and 20 knots at the TAF sites
through the afternoon, possibly hindering takeoff/landing
conditions depending on runway configurations.




AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.