Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

Short term discussion to follow shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

An area of low pressure will become cut off over the western great
lakes at the start of the period with an occluded front pushing
east across the Ohio river valley. Subsidence just ahead of this
front should keep the weather dry through Sunday evening across
eastern Kentucky. The front will then push across the area late
Sunday night through Monday morning, bringing a round of showers
and perhaps a few storms to the area. The more significant impact
will be the winds associated with the frontal passage. Winds will
likely pick up late Sunday night out of the south ahead of the
boundary and could gust up to 30 mph at times. If we can generate
some instability Monday morning, we could see some convective wind
gusts much higher. 00z NAM shows some limited instability, while
the 00z GFS has virtually none. Thus, right now, cannot rule out
some convective gusts as the activity pushes through Monday. In
the wake of the front, winds will remain gusty and likely even
stronger with gusts up to 40 mph likely. Its possible we may need
a wind advisory for Monday, but much too early to issue one. Winds
will remain up Monday night, but should drop back a bit in
strength.

Cooler air will filter in behind the front Monday afternoon
through Monday night. This will bring an end to our milder
weather. Zonal flow takes hold into the middle of the week, with
dry weather expected across the area. Temperatures will slowly
rebound into the middle of the week. Our next storm system will
take aim on the area by late Wednesday, with a warm front lifting
north across the area on Wednesday, followed by an area of low
pressure tracking across the Ohio river valley. This will bring
increasing rain chances to the area from Wednesday into Thursday.
Thursday and Friday are looking to be very damp days with
persistent rains along with cool conditions. We may see lows in
the 40s by weeks end with highs only in the 50s. Looks like the
first week of May may come in on the cool and damp side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

Expecting VFR flight conditions through the forecast period.
There is considerable mid and high level cloudiness over the area
courtesy of ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity along the
Ohio River. Storms in general have been moving to the east and
have been as close as about 30 miles north of SYM. High resolution
models suggests some of those storms could drop a bit further
south through the early morning time frame. Consequently, left
mention of some VCTS in place for SYM. There is a considerable
LLJ, about 30-50 kts just above the boundary layer. Our local VAD
wind profile confirms these higher winds speeds. This combined
with the occasional mixing of gusts down to the surface in an
otherwise light and variable wind field strongly suggests the
presence of some non-convective LLWS. Included a mention of LLWS
at all area terminals. Shower and thunderstorms activity to our
north is expected to lift further northward through the day. Winds
will increase from the south-southwest through the day to around
10kts with some higher gusts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY


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