Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT
CIGS TO RAISE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING SME AND LOZ TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE FOG AND MIST SHOULD STAY IN THE VALLEYS AND
JUST EXPECTING SOME MVFR MIST AS IS RAISES OUT OF THE VALLEYS. EXPECT
THE CLOUD COVER AT JKL AND SJS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND AM
FORECASTING THE STRATUS DECK TO FORM AGAIN NEAR DAWN AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW






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