Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1053 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Radar returns have faded somewhat in the past few hours, but still
plenty of light rain/drizzle ongoing across most of the area. Will
maintain categorical pops for several more hours before having
everything dry out from the west. Some of the higher terrain areas
in southeast Kentucky may end up with a half inch to three
quarters of an inch of rainfall from this overnight rainfall. This
should be pretty sporadic however.

UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Two very distinct bands of rain showing up presently. The first is
over Martin and Pike counties and appears to have a tie directly
to Lake Erie as some the low level returns from JKL radar are
being picked up in southern Ohio. The other band extends from
Mount Sterling down to Middlesboro and appears tied to Lake
Michigan. Within these bands, expect moderate rain possible
leading to a quarter to a third of an inch of rainfall by
midnight. Elsewhere, lighter returns are being picked up and as
observed here at the weather office, plenty of light rain and
drizzle continues and in fact, we have picked up nearly a tenth of
an inch of rainfall since 7 pm. Expanded the categorical pops to
capture the two bands and areas in between. Looks like this
activity will persist well into the overnight hours until drier
air from the west starts to push east late tonight into early
tomorrow morning.

UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Light rain and drizzle continues to fall across eastern Kentucky.
We have seen some enhancement of returns heading into the higher
terrain of southeast Kentucky. This will continue to be where the
highest rain chances are focused through the rest of the evening
and overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 458 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Updated to increase pops into the categorical range across much of
southeast Kentucky with good upslope flow coupled with a deep
layer of moisture producing widespread light rain/drizzle. In
fact, reflectivities continue to increase as they have in the past
few hours. Looks like the light rain may persist well into the
overnight hours based on forecast soundings before winding down to
some patchy drizzle by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Current conditions across the area feature the last of the banded
rainfall weakening and lifting off to the east as the parent low
shifts up the east coast. As this happens tonight, winds will
shift around to the north and northwest. This will create a bit of
an upslope component allowing for continued cloud cover and shower
activity through the night. Therefore will keep at least some
chance pops in the grids through tonight. With the event nearly
over and the moderate rainfall pushing off to the northeast, will
pull the mention of the minor flooding from the HWO. As well,
with the moisture fallen over the area, have put in some instances
of patchy fog through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

For Tuesday, a slow exit for the cloud cover and northwesterly
flow will keep highs in the 40s for Tuesday with the shower
activity finally coming to an end on Tuesday afternoon. This will
finally lead to another brief dry period Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. This will signal the beginning of a pattern change
ahead of the next cold front drying out as it reaches the OH
valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern
change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal
temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal
temperatures.

Deep low pressure moving northeast toward the Great Lakes will
initially bring us warm air advection as the period starts. One more
mild day will result on Wednesday. A cold front trailing from the
low will approach late in the day Wednesday and move through in the
evening. Moisture return will be limited and occur just ahead of the
advancing front, but the 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive with it as
compared to yesterday. A model blend supports a POP as high as 50%
with fropa near the VA border. POPs to the northwest will be lower,
with only 20% used in our Bluegrass region.

Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to
northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for
clouds and flurries/snow showers. There will be multiple impulses
moving through the flow aloft. Trying to forecast specifics with
these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of
very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model
blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves
passing through the large scale northeast CONUS trough. The
strongest impulse is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS
now even shows a weak surface feature associated with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Deep low level moisture combined with upslope northwest flow into
the higher terrain of eastern Kentucky will keep the area locked
in IFR cigs through tonight and much of Tuesday. In fact cigs may
flirt with airport minimums at times tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Steady northwest winds around 10 knots will continue
through tomorrow morning before becoming lighter by Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS


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