Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED TAFS AND THINKING AS
WE REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT OF A BROKEN RECORD PATTERN. FORECAST TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY CIRRUS AFFECTING THE
REGION...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. COULD SEE A LITTLE
MORE WIND IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SRN
SITES...AS THE HIGH PUSHES EWD AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT
DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

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