Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161140
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
540 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018


.AVIATION...

Few changes have been made to the previous TAF package as ceilings
at most sites, with the exception of KLFT and KARA, have
transitioned to MVFR and will continue to fall to IFR over the
next few hours. Precipitation is still expected to transition
from -RA to a wintry mix from N to S through the morning hours.
KAEX will have the best chance for a full changeover to -SN during
the day. TEMPO MVFR visibility restrictions can be expected in any
of the areas of steadier precipitation.

Northerly winds will remain elevated at 15-20 knots with gusts of
25-30 knots possible throughout the day. Winds are expected to
gradually decrease to around 10 knots by this evening. Ceilings
will also begin to improve to VFR by late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows strong arctic cold front with 1050mb high behind it
moving through most of Texas this morning, just entering inland SE
TX and N LA within the last hour. As the cold air wedges beneath
the warmer moist atmosphere, increased moisture pooling and lift
is be generated. Precipitation expected to transition to a mix of
freezing rain, ice pellets and snow early this morning as
temperatures fall across inland SE TX/C LA. The mix of wintry
precipitation will spread south through early afternoon, while
areas north of I-10 will see a changeover to mainly snow.
Accumulations are not expected to be significant, but snow amounts
of one half to one inch will be possible across interior
southeast Texas into central Louisiana. Further south, snow
amounts are expected to be less than one half inch. Ice
accumulation is also expected to be minimal, not exceeding more
than a few hundredths of an inch. Primary impacts for ice will be
to bridges and elevated roadways. Precipitation will end from
north to south this evening. Hazards include a Winter Weather
Advisory for the entire area. Wind advisory along and south of
I-10 for the strong winds behind the front.

In addition, strong northerly winds will produce dangerous wind
chills. Wind chill values will dip into the teens by late afternoon.
As temperatures continue to fall during the evening, wind chills
will fall into the single digits across central and western
Louisiana, with lower teens elsewhere. These dangerously cold
conditions will linger into Wednesday morning as low temperatures
reach the middle to upper teens across inland SE TX/C LA along and
north of the U.S. 190 corridor. Along the I-10 corridor, expect
lows in the upper teens to near 20, with lower 20s along the
coast. Hazards include a Wind Chill Advisory and Hard Freeze
Warning for the entire area.

Warming trend expected by Friday into the weekend. An upper level
disturbance moving across northern Mexico and Texas will generate
a surface wave off the Texas coast by Friday, with a chance of
showers through Saturday. Another cold front will generate
moisture and lift for increased chances of showers Sunday,
clearing out by Monday.

DML

MARINE...
An arctic front will move through the area today, ushering a very
cold airmass into the region. Northerly winds will rapidly
strengthen behind the front, with gusts to gale force expected
through Wednesday morning. Hazards of Gale warning and small
craft advisory continues and remains unchanged from previous
forecast cycle.

However, due to the strong offshore winds expected, ETSurge
guidance showing tides reaching around -1.0 to -1.5 feet MLLW later
this morning across the coast and inland lakes/bays, and -1.5 to
-2.0 feet MLLW Wednesday morning. Hazards include low water
 advisory for both time periods.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  31  16  35  18 /  70  10  10  10
LCH  36  20  37  23 /  70  30  10  10
LFT  35  19  35  21 /  60  30  10  10
BPT  37  21  38  24 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for
     LAZ052>055-073-074.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027>033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ027>029.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ028-029-031>033.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for LAZ027-030.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for LAZ041>045.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ030>033.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ201-
     215-216-261-262.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for
     TXZ215.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-
     259-260.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for TXZ180-259-260.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for TXZ216.

GM...Gale Warning from noon today to 9 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435.

     Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ430-
     432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...26


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