Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 280457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the 07/28/16 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
No changes from 00Z forecast. VFR overnight amid light surface
winds and high/mid level clouds. Could still see some VSBY
restrictions develop as T/TD spreads narrow over wet grounds, but
thus far guidance support for this is lacking as is any indication
in obs. VCTS tomorrow with scattered mainly daytime convection.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 906 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Radar shows convection free across the forecast area this evening.
The 28/00Z upper air sounding from KLCH...while still
moist...shows some drier air entrained into the atmosphere between
85H-70H...likely helping to keep any significant shower activity
from developing. During the night...added 20 percent pops for the
northern zones...as activity along the I-20 corridor may try to
enter that portion of the forecast area before weakening before
daybreak. Also...will keep slight chance pops for the southern
zones and coastal waters for nocturnal convection that will
develop during the overnight and try to move onshore before
daybreak. Remainder of the forecast is on track.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 07/28/16 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Inland convection has generally diminished early this evening, and
latest progs do not indicate additional development is likely this
evening or during the overnight hours. Prevailed VFR with light
and variable winds and scattered high clouds, but will have to
monitor obs/guidance trends this evening for possible VSBY
restrictions given the widespread rainfall. VCTS inserted for mid
to late morning THU, with latest guidance suggesting convection
will be a bit more scattered in nature tomorrow.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Upper low cntrd acrs nrn/wrn LA per recent wv imagery and ua
analysis. This low was situated between a subtropical ridge off the
SE CONUS and a ridge over the Desert SW. Further north, a
shortwave was traveling acrs the cntl CONUS in wly flow aloft. At
the sfc, a broad trof was located acrs nrn LA with high pres
ridge building west along the Gulf coast.

Inland convection has been limited acrs much of the CWA this aftn
thanks to widespread cloud cover that has kept temperatures in
check. Aftn temps barely reached the middle 80s acrs the nrn zones
before showers and storms helped cool things down, while srn areas
stayed relatively cool all day beneath a persistent overcast.
Regional radar mosaic shows a ring of convection surrounding the
CWA as the seabreeze treks inland acrs nrn LA and an outflow
boundary continues to expand south and east over the coastal
waters.

24

DISCUSSION... What little convection is ongoing will continue to
diminish through late aftn into the evening. Most areas should be
rain-free by early evening, and expect this to continue overnight.
Clouds should gradually diminish overnight and some patchy fog
could develop toward daybreak if skies clear up enough.

The upper low will begin to lift north as the aforementioned cntl
CONUS shortwave approaches the mid MS Valley, shearing the system
and taking much of the energy further northeast away fm the area.
However, a weakness will linger aloft with ample moisture
continuing to stream over the region. Precip water will remain abv
normal but not at the excessively high values seen recently, more
within the range of 1.8 to 2.1 inches. As a result, a more typical
summertime pattern is expected the next several days as the
seabreeze becomes the primary focus for sctd showers and storms
each day.

With more sctd convection and partly to mostly cloudy skies,
temperatures are expected to run near normal with aftn highs in
the lower 90s and lows in the middle to upper 70s.

24

MARINE...
A persistent lt to modt onshore flow is expected through early next
week as high pres ridges acrs the nrn Gulf of Mexico. A more typical
summertime convective pattern is expected to develop with widely
sctd to sctd showers and tstms mainly from late night into early
morning.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  92  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
LCH  78  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  40
LFT  76  93  76  92 /  20  30  20  50
BPT  78  93  78  93 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


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