Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 271155
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
For the 05/27/16 1200 UTC TAF package.
Line of convection currently pushing through E TX this morning
just moving into the KBPT area at this time. Inserted a tempo TSRA
here for the next few HRS, though that duration may prove too
long. Effects on downstream sites becomes increasingly uncertain,
and for that reason have only used VCTS at KAEX and KLCH, with no
mention at all for the Acadiana terminals. Doppler velocityestimates
in the stronger convection have been around 50KT at near 3K FT,
but gusts at the surface thus far have been closer to 20-25KT.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible AMDS, as it appears
the convection will reach KLCH sooner than indicated in the TAF.
Away from the convection, a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS are expected
with south winds increasing and becoming gusty with daytime
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Short Term...Today through Saturday.
Main forecast issues will be POPs especially over western parts of
the forecast area today and intensity of storms as they move
through southeast Texas this morning. Based on satellite and
radar...overall thunderstorm activity had weakened across
southeast Texas overnight as convection has increased and
intensified westward into central Texas. However...intense
convective line is beginning to organize northwest of Houston and
will likely move into southeast Texas later this morning. SPC has
issued a watch until 10 AM for southeast Texas as strong winds
and hail will be possible. Will maintain current fotrecast of
high POPs similar to ongoing forecast. Focus of stronger storms
and heavy appears to shifting further west in time. Also total QPF
through 12Z Saturday is forecasted under 1 inch so no FFA for now.
While upper trough axis will shift NE of area...rich thte air will
remain over the area so taper POPs to chance category for
Saturday. Highest POPs will remain over the north.
Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday
A fairly persistent weak upper ridge pattern is expected through
at least the middle of next week. With rich moisture still in
place...will continue with low-end diurnal rain chances through
Wednesday. Upper trough will begin to move into the southern
Plains by late next week. Both GFS and ECMWF are showing
impressive upper diffluent flow east of the trough which would
denote potential for more heavy rain events. Temperatures should
remain near normal through late next week.
Persistent high pressure will continue over the eastern U.S. through
Saturday. This will keep a modest gradient over the area through
Saturday. Gradient should weaken by Sunday as high pressure builds
westward. This should bring a weak wind regime for the northern Gulf
and coastal areas for early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 84 71 87 70 / 50 20 40 10
LCH 83 74 85 72 / 50 20 30 10
LFT 85 72 87 71 / 20 10 20 10
BPT 83 75 86 73 / 60 40 30 10
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for GMZ450-452-