Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300538
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF KAEX TO JUST
NORTHWEST OF KBPT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY 20/09Z. A VERY SHORT WINDOW FOR
SOME PATCH FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KARA BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAF. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CWA...LOCATED ROUGHLY FM SIMMESPORT TO
BUNDICK LAKE TO WARREN TEXAS AS OF 9 PM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBS
INDICATE LT WLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDOW
FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO NARROW AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH NEARLY ALL OBS SITES SHOWING 10SM
VSBY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED PATCHY FOG MENTION FM GRIDS AND
ZONES ALTHOUGH SOME RURAL LOCATIONS IN THE SRN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE SOME VERY BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRIDS EDITS WERE MINOR WITH TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND SKY COVER MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






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