Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 231726
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies will prevail through the forecast period. Calm winds
overnight tonight will increase after sunrise Tuesday with the
approach of a dry cold front that will move through the area
during the day. With winds already out of the north, no
appreciable change in direction is expected with the frontal
passage.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1017 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Only issue for the update will be winds over the eastern waters
this morning. For now...believe that SCEC can be allowed to expire
at noon. May tweak max temperatures up a little otherwise no
changes planned at this moment.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
SFC high pressure centered over South Central TX imparting a
generally light NW flow across area early this morning, with
temperatures in the lower to mid 50s away from the immediate
coast.

Global model guidance is in generally good agreement in the short
term, depicting a digging ERN CONUS trof which sends a reinforcing
cold front through the area late tonight. Ahead of this feature,
plenty of sun along with a warming low level temperature profile
(thermal ridge) will yield a seasonably mild afternoon. Having
been fairly well scoured of moisture by the front on Sunday, no
PCPN or even much in the way of cloud cover will accompany the
front, which will push through from late evening through the
overnight hours, and be well offshore by TUE morning. Temperatures
below seasonal normals (well below for lows) are expected TUE and
WED, with 40s forecast down to the I-10 corridor. The post
frontal SFC high traverses the area late WED, with a light onshore
flow and warmer temperatures returning on THU.

The warm up appears to be short lived, however, as the global
models show another robust upper trof digging into the
Central/ERN CONUS by FRI. Still some disparity in the guidance,
with the ECMWF a bit slower and definitely wetter with the
associated CDFNT than the GFS and CMC. Aside from these
differences, however, all advertise much cooler and drier weather
returning for the weekend.

13

MARINE...
Modest north winds over the waters east of Cameron will gradually
subside by this afternoon. Until then, small craft should
exercise caution. A reinforcing cold front is forecast to sweep
through the coastal waters after midnight tonight, ushering in
strong and gusty north winds that will persist through Wednesday
morning. A small craft advisory has been issued for the Gulf
waters from late tonight through Tuesday, and will likely need to
be extended beyond this time. Surface high pressure will slide
east across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a light
onshore flow developing by Thursday as the high moves off to the
east.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  73  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  55  75  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  53  75  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  54  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...66



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