Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 291646
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
.AVIATION...A vigorous storm system advancing through the midwest
will maintain a tight pressure gradient with strong and gusty
south winds through this afternoon and into the evening until an
associated frontal passage. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
be on the increase west to east and carrying TEMPO groups for
convection accordingly. More robust thunderstorms will have
the potential for higher wind gusts.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
Line of convection heading into the greater Houston area of
Southeast Texas currently. This activity may undergo a brief
weakening trend before noon, as it begins to reach the forecast
area. However, hi-res models show activity regenerating and firing
up after 2-3 pm over western portion of Southeast Texas of the
forecast area. With this activity gradually moving into Southwest
Louisiana during the evening hours. Still potential for severe
weather and we will be launching a special RAOB at 18Z to sample
the airmass for this afternoon. Surface winds still expected to
increase this afternoon and will keep the Wind Advisory in place
as is. No significant changes to the grids/forecast at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
AVIATION...Spotty MVFR conditions are occurring this morning and
will continue, however ceilings are expected to lower more this
afternoon and into tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon and tonight across the region which will lower the vis.
Strong gusty winds are also expected. Winds will be generally SSE
this morning and become SW tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
Vigorous upper low nearing the TX panhandle per latest water vapor
satellite imagery, with latest sfc analysis showing an elongated
area of low pressure over northern TX, with a leading dryline/front
extending south through Central TX and a trailing cold front
stretching west across north TX into NM.
Elevated winds over coastal SE TX/SW LA are finally starting to
settle down a bit. This looks to be short lived, however, as winds
are forecast to increase this afternoon across most of the area
along/south of I-10 and over parts of E Central LA owing to the
tight pressure gradient and a 30-40KT LLJ. Went ahead an issued a
wind advisory from noon through 6 pm, though it is possible an
extension in time may be needed for locations near the coast.
Gusts could reach into the 35-40 mph range.
Initial band of convection raced eastward across Central and into
Eastern TX overnight and early this morning, weakening and pushing
out an extensive outflow which is currently generating light
returns over interior SE TX. This scenario was depicted fairly
well in high resolution CAM guidance, albeit the guidance was a
little slower than what actually materialized. There has and
continues to be greater disparity in convective evolution today,
however. Examining the overall progged environment and the
guidance that did perform well with this initial round continues
to yield the general idea that significant convection will hold
off spreading into and/or developing over E TX until later this
afternoon with the arrival of more favorable lapse rates and
greater lift accompanying a coupled/split jet structure. All
severe modes continue to look possible per forecast
soundings/parameters. Convection will then spread/move into W LA
during the evening and continue TWD the Atchafalaya through the
overnight period. The trailing CDFNT, which will eventually
overtake/merge with the leading boundary, is forecast to be
pushing east of the Sabine River by early THU morning, and will
exit east of the Atchafalaya by late afternoon/early evening. Bulk
of convection is progged to occur well ahead of the actual
boundary, however, and latest guidance continues to accelerate its
departure such that PoPs THU were trended downward.
Flat ridging in the wake of the departing upper low will result
in quiet weather on FRI, with good rain chances returning late SAT
through SUN night with the approach and passage of another upper
Strong and gusty south winds along with rough seas are expected
to persist today as a low pressure area and an associated cold
front approach the area. Winds are forecast to gradually subside
from west to east tonight as the front nears and then pushes
through the region. A brief period of west winds will follow the
frontal passage, with an onshore flow returning Thursday night
into Friday. South winds will increase again over the weekend in
association with another storm system forecast to affect the area.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 82 67 75 54 / 20 80 40 10
LCH 81 66 77 57 / 40 80 40 10
LFT 84 72 80 61 / 10 70 60 10
BPT 81 63 79 58 / 60 70 30 10
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ031>033-041>045-
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215-216.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ435.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CDT today for GMZ435.