Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 022016
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  68  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  96  72  95  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  97  71  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  98  72  95  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



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