Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 032009
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. WAVY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ALONG THE EAST AND GULF COASTS...AND
FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS PROVIDING LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AT MID LEVELS. WATER VAPOR AND CURRENT
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE DRIER THAN WHAT THIS
MORNINGS 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWED. ONLY A VERY FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS...REALLY NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY
IN A FORECAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW STATIONS ABOVE
AND BELOW THAT. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES
ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH OF A REASON
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
ONLY REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP TONIGHTS FORECAST DRY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS. THROUGH SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED...AND GENERALLY LIMITED TO BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY LAKE
AND SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. .
EVEN AT THAT...20 PERCENT MAY BE OVERSTATING ANY EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM GUIDANCE MADE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE SCENARIO THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEEPEN AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MAY ALLOW A FRONT
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. EVEN WITH THAT...ONLY CARRYING ABOUT A 30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NOT A LOT OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BEING THE WARMEST OF THE SPELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MAY BE
SOME DROP IN HIGHS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GRADUALLY WARM OVER
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. STILL NOT MUCH OF A RANGE
IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO USING A
BLEND WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR RESULTS. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WINDS. ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL NEED TO BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS PROBABILITIES ARE FAR TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN AREAL COVERAGE. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  70  89  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
MSY  74  89  74  91 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  71  88  72  90 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  69  88  70  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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