996
FXUS64 KLIX 141826
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
126 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Tonight through Wednesday morning, weak mid level ridging will
dominate the pattern. Southerly surface winds are helping to
advect moisture and warm air into the region. Scattered storms
are still expected, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
on Tuesday. Looking at the short range models, generally this
should be lower in coverage than what we are seeing today, and
severe weather is not expected. There will still be the concern
for localized minor flash flooding impacts, given the highs PWs
around 2" and abundant low level moisture. These storms are also
not moving very quickly at all, which can lead to some training if
a storm does develop over an area. Locations with the greatest
threat will be urban and vulnerable locations.

Despite the rain, the convection should be scattered enough areal
coverage-wise to allow for locations to get quite hot, especially
with the added humidity. Heat index values for tomorrow are around
105-110 degrees for most locations, especially east of I-55. A
heat advisory has been issued for all locations in Southeast
Louisiana and Coastal and Southern Mississippi, except the
immediate Louisiana coast. If convection ends up being more
coverage than expected for tomorrow, then we may not end up
meeting criteria, but confidence is higher tomorrow than any other
day this week, given the "drier" forecast. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

As we head into Wednesday through the weekend, rain chances will
be quite enhanced due to the influence of a nearby Gulf
disturbance, which has a 30% (low) chance of development per NHC
in the next 7 days. There is some model uncertainty in how to
handle this system, but generally increased Gulf moisture from the
disturbance trending westward will likely influence our area.
Currently, the main impacts we may expect from this system will be
locally heavy rainfall. While increased rain chances begin
starting Wednesday, the bulk of the rainfall will occur on
Thursday and Friday (and potentially into the weekend). Wednesday,
there is still a little bit of uncertainty in the arrival timing
of the rainfall. A lot will depend on the strength of the ridge as
it breaks down mid-week. But generally, we should start to see
some enhanced PoPs and rainfall coverage by Wednesday afternoon,
increasing as we head into Thursday and Friday.

Thursday and Friday, the bulk of the rainfall from the Gulf
disturbance is expected to impact the area. Conditions look very
favorable for flash flooding, and this will be a very big
concern. Generally looking at model soundings, PW values are
around 2-2.2 inches, which above the 90th percentile for SPC
sounding climatology. This combined with the deep layer moisture
and an abundant source from the Gulf will create for some highly
efficient rainfall for our area. Additionally, some of the
soundings are hinting at parallel flow throughout the atmospheric
column as well as extremely low shear due to the system getting a
bit trapped, which would be a major issue that could lead to
training and backbuilding of storms. If this occurs, rainfall
totals could very well exceed any forecast amounts. It will all
depend on how the pattern develops in the next 1-2 days, and there
is still some uncertainty for the late week. Regardless, WPC has
outlooked us in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Thursday
and Friday to reflect the risk of heavy rainfall. We will continue
to monitor closely through the next few days, but this event has
the potential to be a major rain producer for our area, so please
keep tuned into the forecast for changes. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period. Some afternoon and early evening
showers and storms are forecast at all area airports that will
briefly drop conditions to MVFR, and TEMPO groups are in effect to
represent this concern. MSW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Benign conditions will continue through the next few days as high
pressure remains overhead or at least nearby. Winds generally onshore
at 10 knots or less with seas under 2 feet. The only exception would
be brief gale force wind gusts from isolated storms. A broad area of
low pressure moving into the northeastern Gulf later this week will
increase winds/seas over local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  74  95 /  10  20   0  40
BTR  75  94  75  95 /  10  20   0  40
ASD  73  94  75  93 /  10  20  10  60
MSY  78  94  79  94 /  10  30  10  60
GPT  76  95  77  94 /  10  30  30  70
PQL  74  96  75  93 /  10  30  40  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ046>048-056>060-
     064-065-070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW