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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 312102
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WETTER THAN RECENT PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES...EXTENDING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. A RIDGE IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE US/MEXICAN BORDER AND PROTRUDES NORTH ACROSS THE
ROCKIE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY
TO LOUISIANA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IN PLACE HAS
BEEN EVAPORATING MUCH OF THE RAIN AS IT MOVES IN. LOCAL SOUNDING
CONFIRMS THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE WITH THERE STILL BEING A DRY LAYER
LEFT IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS TOP DOWN PROCESS IS TYPICALLY W/IN A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THUS LESS LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS. SO HAVE LOWER THUNDER PROB TO ISOLATED VS MATCHING POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
TOWARDS THE CWA AND STALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS. PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN
ISSUE AT TIMES AS RAINFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH.

BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND ONWARD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CUTOFF MOISTURE FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR
LESS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EVEN AS CLOUD LAYERS THICKEN
AT TIMES THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS AT OR ABOVE 090 ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND 040 COULD OCCUR AROUND
KBTR BETWEEN 15-18Z FRIDAY AND SOME OTHER AIRPORTS AFTER 18Z. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING IN
NORTHWEST AREAS AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WITH
A BETTER CHANCE ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. 22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE COASTAL WATERS UNDERGO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
LAND/SEA BREEZE REGIME IN COMING DAYS AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 24/RR

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  87  69  90 /  40  40  40  40
BTR  70  88  71  90 /  40  50  40  40
ASD  68  88  71  90 /  30  40  40  40
MSY  73  87  75  90 /  30  40  40  40
GPT  68  90  73  90 /  30  40  40  40
PQL  66  88  71  89 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
