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000
FXUS64 KLIX 110923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION STARTING TO DEVELOP
OUT OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE FORECAST TODAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WITH ANY
CONVECTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY.
STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A QUICK HITTER AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNDOWN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...RESULTING IN
RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND EXPECT
THAT HIGH TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
OPEN THE GULF TO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING IN THE LONG RANGE AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN AS WITH THE LAST FEW
FORECAST PACKAGES THE TIME FRAME BEYOND SATURDAY IS STILL VERY MUCH
IN THE AIR...HOWEVER THE 0Z RUN OF THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE IT IS
TRENDING TO MORE LIKE A GFS SOLUTION WHICH OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS
TRENDING TO AS WELL. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS STILL IN VFR STATUS BUT LOW CIGS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. IN
ADDITION RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ENTER SELA AROUND 12/13Z WITH MOST
TERMINALS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA IMPACTED BY RAIN AFTER
15/16Z. THAT SAID SHRA SHOULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. EMBEDDED TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHSHORE AND MS COAST TERMINALS. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND 00Z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED BUT WILL STILL
WILL START TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING. AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY IT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THUS LEADING TO WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATER TO AROUND 15-20
KTS. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL BACK DOWN
BELOW SCS CRITERIA BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UNTIL A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY HRS WED.
ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN THE AFTN. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVNG AS CAA
STRENGTHEN. IN FACT THERE IS A CHANCE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX IMMEDIATELY AFTER
SUNRISE ON THU AND ALL FLAGS SHOULD BE LOWERED BY MID/LATE THU AFTN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN FRI. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  54  64  34 /  80  20  10  10
BTR  73  57  66  36 /  90  10  10  10
ASD  69  57  69  36 / 100  20  10  10
MSY  70  59  69  42 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  67  58  70  38 / 100  30  10  10
PQL  68  58  69  36 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$