Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 271122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
622 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

Another unseasonably warm day is in store for the central Kentucky
and southern Indiana today.  Temperatures will start out this
morning in many locations warmer than the normal highs for the date,
which are in the low to mid 50s.  Thanks to a bit more cloud cover,
though, max temps should stay below 70 today.

Big changes lurk just on the horizon, however, as an elongated area
of rain lies to our northwest, stretching from the Great Lakes to
central Texas, along a strong cold front.  Temperatures south of the
front at 3 am in St. Louis were in the low 60s, while just 100 miles
north, Hannibal, MO was in the upper 30s. Because the upper level
steering winds lie parallel to the surface front, however, it`s
eastward progression will be slow, especially along the southern
end.  Over the next 24 to 36 hours, this will result in the front
becoming stretched out roughly parallel to the Ohio River, putting
an end to the blue skies and bringing the chance of rain for the
entire area for the weekend.

Timing-wise, the rain will remain mostly north of the Ohio River
during the day today, though some showers could cross over before
sunset, especially west of I-65.  As the evening progresses, POPs
increase, with rain a near certainty for most of central Kentucky on
Saturday.  The good news, though, is that, even with the rainfall,
temperatures will remain on the mild side, with lows tonight in the
50s, and highs on Saturday in the 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

The second half of the weekend remains wet, as the aforementioned
cold front essentially exits the region at a snail`s pace. Overcast
skies and periods of rain linger into Tuesday before a large upper
low finally moves through the northeast U.S. and its trailing trof
pushes the surface front and precip east into the Atlantic.  By that
time, 2"-3" of rain will have fallen over most of the forecast area.

By the time the rain moves out Tuesday night, the calendar will read
December, and temperatures will then start to follow suit as drier,
colder air moves in.  While highs will be mainly in the 50s to low
60s Sunday through Tuesday, the 40s will prevail for Wednesday and
Thursday.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 40s
Sunday through Tuesday, then dip into the 30s after the blanket of
clouds exits along with the precip.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 622 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

A cold front will slowly edge toward the TAF sites during this
forecast period, reaching the Ohio River tonight. Ceilings will
slowly lower over the course of the day but will stay well VFR.
Widely scattered showers can`t be ruled out today at SDF and BWG,
but the best chances for showers will hold off until tonight at all
three sites.

Showers will continue into Saturday morning. SDF ceilings may drop
below VFR Saturday morning, but will leave it to future TAF
issuances to address that more fully.

Winds will come in from the south throughout the TAF period, and may
get a little gusty during the daylight hours today.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........JBS
Long Term.........JBS
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