Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301754
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
954 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...

FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE. JUST KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF VENTURA COUNTY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRYING TREND. THE HRRR DOES AS WELL...BUT IT ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE
FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO EASTERN VENTURA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF LA COUNTY COULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05"...EXCEPT SOME
0.25" AMOUNTS IN THE SAN GABRIELS). WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT. OVERALL TREND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WILL BE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS L.A. COUNTY SINCE
LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ANEMIC. WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE. THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND STRETCH MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF....WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION LIKELY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER 7000 FT TODAY...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO
6500 FT EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY SNOWFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT A FEW INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE EASTERN SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY
TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS COAST AND VALLEYS
BY LATE SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS LA/VTU MTNS AND WIND PRONE LA/VTU COUNTY PASSES AND CANYONS
AND ACROSS THE OXNARD PLAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. BUT WILL
BE CLOSE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED WINDOW OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WARM UP ON SATURDAY BUT
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY AREAS DUE
TO OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER BAJA WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BETTER WARMING ON SUNDAY ACROSS
COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS INTO THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MARINE LAYER STRATUS ISSUES...EXCEPT FOR LA
COUNTY COAST SATURDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY N OF POINT CONCEPTION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY
NEUTRAL. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING UNDER THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 BY WED/THU. HAVE ADDED SOME
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...30/1045Z...

AT 0910Z...THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION AT KLAX...WITH THE
INVERSION TOP AT 1100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. UPPER LOW SPINNING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE ONLY ISSUE
THIS MORNING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE KPRB WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF VLIFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
LATE TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS
DEVELOPING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...30/900 AM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST WIND AND SEAS AROUND
10 FEET FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10-60 NM AND FROM THE
OUTER WATERS FROM POINT SAL TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN A FETCH AREA ORIENTED
BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES RELATIVE TO VENTURA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SEAS AROUND 20 FEET. AND THE SWELLS FROM THE FETCH AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SUKUP
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/30

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