Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 041203

703 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2015

A cutoff low over the southeastern CONUS will shift eastward today.
Until then, moisture streaming back to the northwest around this
feature will bring continued cloudiness and perhaps some drizzle or
light rain to parts of the area today. Clouds are expected to start
thinning or breaking up in the afternoon, especially over the
eastern and southeastern CWA, which could lead to a quick jump in
temps over those areas during the afternoon. Surface winds remain
out of the northeast due to flow around the southeastern side of a
surface ridge axis.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2015

Weather features across the central CONUS become increasingly ill-
defined heading into the first part of the new work week. As the
upper low over the southeast U.S. accelerates northeast, the
cutoff low over s CA will start a very slow eastward drift,
while the primary band of westerlies remains to our north. This
essentially puts the mid-Mississippi Valley beneath a very weak
ridge, leaving the FA almost totally devoid of any upper level
dynamics. Models do indicate some moisture across the region
(likely a combination of residual low level moisture from the
departing southeast system as well as some higher level moisture
streaming north from Mexico) but precipitation threat should
remain quite low during the Monday- Wednesday time frame due to
lack of UVV.

Since progged AMS is fairly mild for early October (850MB temps 10-
13C), daytime highs should warm nicely with just a bit of
sunshine.  Guidance over the past few days has been fairly
consistent in suggesting that no persistent low cloud deck will
grab hold of the area, and if that is the case daytime highs in
most of the region should easily be in the mid and upper 70s by
Tuesday and Wednesday...and a few locations reaching the lower
80s would not be out of the question. Lows are also expected to
moderate a bit as daytime temperatures warm, with lows in the mid
50s to lower 60s by midweek.

Next system is still expected to arrive in the Thursday-Friday time
frame, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2015

Cloud deck will remain in place for most of the day, although the
initially IFR to low-end MVFR cigs should lift and become
prevailing MVFR by later this morning. Clouds are expected to start
thinning or scatter out from the southeast during the late
afternoon at KSTL/KSUS/KCPS. Winds will remain northeasterly
through the TAF period.





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