Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 241409 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Following a cold frontal passage earlier this morning, high
pressure will begin to build back into the region through the
day. Additional weak cold fronts will cross the region Sunday
through Tuesday, but with little if any precipitation. High
pressure will cross the region Wednesday and then settle over
the western Atlantic Ocean late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Partly to mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the
day with a mix of fair weather cumulus, some terrain driven
clouds, and some cirrus. West-northwest winds expected through
the day, with gusts up to about 25 mph or so. Temperatures will
still be quite warm with highs from the mid 80s to low 90s,
however dew points, and therefore humidity, will be falling
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The remainder of the short term will feature an upper trough
settling over the Great Lakes, and surface high pressure over
the central US. Northwest surface flow and passing disturbances
aloft will bring weak reinforcing cold fronts southwest across
the area. With much drier air in place, little if any precip is
expected with these fronts, though an isolated shower or t-storm
can`t be completely ruled out, especially Monday and Monday
night as a little more forcing is present aloft. Otherwise,
temperatures will be sliding downward each day, with low-mid 80s
Sunday and upper 70s to low 80s Monday. Lows will decline in a
similar fashion, with low-mid 60s common tonight, upper 50s to
low 60s more likely Sunday night, and mid-upper 50s more common
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cool (for late June) weather to start the long term as an upper
trough starts sliding east across the region and high pressure
to our west keeps a cool northwest flow in place. The passing
trough may result in enough instability to result in a stray
shower or t-storm Tuesday, but most spots stay dry. The trough
starts moving east away from us Wednesday, with ridging building
in from the southwest late in the week as the surface high
pushes east and sets up shop off the coast (i.e. a Bermuda
high). This will result in temperatures starting to warm back
above normal by the end of the week, and an increasing risk of
diurnal terrain showers and storms in the mountains by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR expected through the forecast period. Some gusty west-
northwest winds expected this morning (up to 20 knots or so),
but winds will gradually diminish late today and especially
tonight. An isolated thunderstorm could occur Monday or Tuesday
with a weak reinforcing cold front and following upper trough,
but odds are low.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building in behind a cold front will continue to
cause SCA gusts today, especially through early afternoon. Will
need to watch for potential mixing and resulting SCA gusts
Sunday and Monday with multiple weak reinforcing cold fronts
moving through. Otherwise, mainly dry through the rest of the
forecast period, with just an isolated thunderstorm possible
Monday or Tuesday with a weak front and following trough.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM/RCM
NEAR TERM...MM/RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...MM/RCM
MARINE...MM/RCM



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