Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 30S ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND I-40 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
MAKE SOME AJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATING BEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO MAKE ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO NORTH MS AND WEST TN. NE ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT 30-32F TEMPS INTO THAT AREA. MEANWHILE LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPS
ARE SUB FREEZING. GIVEN THE LATEST SURFACE TEMPS ON THE MESO PLOTS
DECIDED TO ADD THE BOOTHEEL AND CROSS COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND EXTEND IT OUT TO 9 AM CST. NO SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED JUST A LIGHT GLAZE IN SPOTS WITH SOME SLICK
AREAS ON ROADS.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL HELP GENERATE LIFT OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS
AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS BY 18Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SE AS THE LLJ VEERS FROM SSW TO WEST BY
00Z. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE ACROSS NE AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL WHERE
THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE. ELSW HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF ACROSS THE NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME OVERRUNNING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
AS TEMPS DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

MONDAY...LOOKING RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AND A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION.
LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT THIS SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF AS SOME RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TOP 60 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS LOW AS OVERALL INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL LOOKING VERY
INTERESTING. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/06Z NAM PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPS. THE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH HANGS WELL BACK TO THE
WEST WHILE STRONG...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS POINTS TOWARD A GOOD
DEAL OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP. THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
WELL OVER AN INCH LIQUID BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE 06Z GFS HAS
LESS BUT STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING...SLEET AND THE SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEPTH
DEEPENS FROM NW TO SE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO
TALK ABOUT AMOUNTS BUT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP SEEMS POSSIBLE
OVER AT LEAST PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THOUGH. ARCTIC
AIRMASS BUILDING IN WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....VERY COLD FOR END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME WARMING BY THE WEEKEND THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS BY LATER SATURDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH MOSTLY MVFR VIS DUE TO
RA AND BR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
TIME...FROM LESS THAN 5KT TODAY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT THIS
EVENING...AND 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
INCREASE EXPECT THEM TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY.
TOWARD SUNRISE CIGS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY AT JBR AND
MEM...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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