Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 210235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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