Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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664
FXUS64 KMEG 250123
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
723 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to expand slight chance for thunder.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tasil end of front generating a few storms acros portions of
Central Mississippi. This lightning activity will likely move
into Tallahatchie and Yalobusha counties over the next hour.
expanded threat for storms into this region.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

UPDATE..Updated to lower evening PoPs in the east.

DISCUSSION...

Cold front pushing into West Tennessee this hour...with very
isolated shower activity associated with it. As temperatures fall
this evening decreasing instability should keep rain chances
lower than current thinking across the east through midnight. The
threat for a strong storm along the Tennessee River Valley is also
quickly waning...with an update to the HWO likely needed in the
next hour or two. Adjusted the evening forecast accordingly. All
other forecast parameters are currently on track.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

At 3PM...A cold front is currently situated just west and nearly
parallel to the Mississippi River. WSR-88D radar trends continue
to show light rain showers along and north of the forecast area
with just a few along the front. Water vapor imagery shows a
positively tilted shortwave over Iowa at this hour, with severe
thunderstorm watches stacked downstream across much of Indiana
where the best dynamics remain.

For our area, moisture and instability continues to be limited
ahead of the front, as evidenced by high temperatures only in the
60s over much of the area. In addition, the latest AMDAR soundings
from Memphis International Airport also indicate a stout capping
inversion from 850 to 700mb. The latest HRRR run indicates that
best chances for rain and thunderstorms will be across west
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi through about 10 PM tonight. A
few storms could be strong near Henry and Benton County, Tennessee
where the best forcing for ascent will be. Elsewhere, showers and
some elevated thunder will be possible as the front pushes quickly
across the area tonight.

Cool Canadian high pressure will build into the region on
Saturday with temperatures remaining only in the upper 40s and
lower 50s during the day. The surface high will become nearly
centered over the Mid-South by Sunday morning, resulting in
optimum radiational cooling. Guidance continues to trend cooler
with low temperatures, and most places will drop below the
freezing mark for the first time in over a week. A warming trend
will begin again on Sunday as high pressure slides eastward, and
winds turn around to the south.

Both main synoptic models continue to show a shortwave kicking
off a few showers after midnight Sunday and overspreading the
entire area by Monday morning. A broad surface low is expected to
develop over the Central Plains and push a warm front northward
through our area during the day on Monday. As it lifts, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible much of the day. The
aforementioned surface low will traverse to the great lakes during
the day on Tuesday and drag a cold front into our area by late
Tuesday night. The models continue to diverge past this point,
with the GFS pushing the front all the way through our area by
Wednesday morning keeping us dry for the day, whereas, the Euro
keeps it nearly stationary as a weak surface low rides along the
front. Thus, the Euro keeps us in a wet and unstable airmass all
day on Wednesday, contrary to the dry GFS solution. The GFS
continues to be the outlier, with respect to evolution of the
upper level flow.

Thursday into next weekend continues to be dry at this point, as
zonal flow and slight upper level ridging remain in place over the
Mid-South. Temperatures look to return to seasonal readings with
highs near 60 and lows in the 40s.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few showers and
maybe a thunderstorm near KTUP this evening can be expected as a
cold front moves through the region. Gusty southwest winds will
veer northwesterly behind the front with continued gusts. This
should persist through midday Saturday before gradually
diminishing. Skies will clear at all sites later this evening.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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