Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 291052
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
452 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT LOW CLOUDS COVERED THE
MIDSOUTH. ANY CLEARING HAS STALLED AND THE LOW CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT FOR LOWER
40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS. WINDS WERE NORTHERLY ABOUT 5 TO
10 MPH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN LINGERED FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN
INTO NORTH MS.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1058 MB WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MS RIVER ALL DAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
DOWN BY THE CLOUDS AND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. BASED ON THE HRRR AND
NAM...KEPT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TN ALONG THE TN RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS EARLY
THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...DID NOT CLEAR THE SKIES QUITE AS FAST AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES WITH 925 MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST HELPING TO
HOLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
OTHERWISE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH OF 1040 MB IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OK AND WILL DOMINATE MIDSOUTH WEATHER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT IT WILL BE COLD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO
THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

NEW YEARS DAY WILL CONTINUE COLD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS.

THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A WINTRY MIXTURE OF
PRECIPITATION CONSISTING OF SLEET...RAIN...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE. THE AFFECTED AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO COVINGTON TENNESSEE TO SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID-
MORNING FRIDAY. BRIEF SLEET MAY OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK VERY WET FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH PUSHING ONLY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE WITH VALUES REACHING GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY / SATURDAY
NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...HELD OFF MENTIONING THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH COULD CUT US OFF FROM THE
GREATER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH / ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING CLOUDS OUT FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW. WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE
AND KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT TUP
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AT BEST. PATCHY 3-5SM BR
IS POSSIBLE..ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT JBR WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID
CLOUDS WILL RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT.

WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.