Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 292039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A deep, quasi-stationary trough continues to spin over the
northern Great Lakes this afternoon. Several weak impulses are
noted on the periphery of this cyclone on the water vapor loop,
but winds aloft across the Mid-South are relatively light. A
broad area of moist southwesterly flow in the upper-troposphere
is streaming across the Lower Mississippi Valley, helping to
maintain the cirrus overhead.

At the surface, a weak surface boundary is located over the
southeast quadrant of the CWA. A few showers and thunderstorms
have developed over northeast MS, as far north as Selmer/Savannah
in west TN. Instability is somewhat muted given the overcast
conditions with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/kg. Given the
limited instability and weak shear, the potential for severe
weather remains low. However, a strong pulse storm isn`t out of
the question through sunset. A few showers, and perhaps, a
thunderstorm, will remain a possibility across north MS overnight,
but coverage will wane.

The forecast is pretty messy through much of the next 7 days. The
aforementioned trough over the Great Lakes will be a player
through midweek, with the next system being a southern stream
shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Southern Plains on
Thursday and Friday. This late week wave looks to be followed by
yet another trough over the weekend. This series of troughs will
result in an unsettled weather pattern with the potential for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Rain
chances will be primarily focus over the northern half of the CWA
through Wednesday, with rain chances ramping up areawide on
Thursday, peaking on Friday/Saturday as the main trough swings
through the area. PoPs then taper off Sunday as the wave moves

Max temperatures will be seasonal through the forecast period with
highs in the low/mid 80s. Overnight lows will be a bit above
normal at times given the abundance of cloud cover and low-level
moisture with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s.



18Z TAFs

Weak surface ridging is in place across most of the Mid-South, with
a surface front stretching over northeastern MS. Expect mainly VFR
conditions this afternoon, with afternoon SHRA/TSRA developing near
the frontal boundary. Will include VCSH at KTUP this afternoon.
Light winds expected overnight before winds gradually becoming
southerly Tuesday morning. Will include tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KTUP near daybreak Tuesday where surface moisture should be richest.





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