Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261729 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

AS OF 10AM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ALREADY. IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY AS MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN
70 PLUS DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. TODAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A NORMAL
HOT SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AC3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...COOLEST IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND WARMEST IN EAST ARKANSAS AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND SOUTH OF MEMPHIS. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TODAY
COULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS SO FAR THIS SUMMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. BASED ON RECENT MODEL BIASES AND A FAIRLY
COOL START TO THE DAY...WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GUIDANCE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER WITH MIDDLE 90S AREA WIDE. HEAT
INDICES SHOULD BE IN THE 100-103 RANGE...JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG...POSSIBLE SEVERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER...2-5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE WORK WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER...BUT NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP THE TEMPO
VSBY A BIT AT MKL SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME QUESTION OF THE WINDS
FULLY DECOUPLING.

FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA APPEAR A GOOD BET SUNDAY...
AFTER THE 18Z/27 TAF EXPIRATION TIME.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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