Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 220236

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
836 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017


A cold front continues to move through the Mid-South this evening.
Some clouds remain over Northeast Mississippi ahead of the front,
otherwise clear skies are occurring across the rest of the CWA.
Skies will continue to clear behind the front. Current
temperatures are in the 40s, but will drop into the lower to mid
30s for lows. Current forecast looks good.



.DISCUSSION...  /issued 231 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

A cold front continues to move south toward the CWA this
afternoon and will reach Walnut Ridge and Corning in the next hour
or so. Winds will shift from the north as this front passes this
evening, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph at
times. The canopy of high clouds will decrease overnight resulting
in mostly clear conditions by Wednesday morning. North winds will
persist tomorrow, with cold advection offsetting sunny conditions
to keep temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. Once the
sun sets, winds will decrease rapidly and will set the stage for
good radiational cooling conditions for Thursday morning. Expect
low temperatures across the Mid-South ranging from the mid 20s to
near 30 degrees.

Dry and cool conditions will persist on Thursday with temperatures
moderating into the 50s. The warm-up continues on Friday as highs
rebound into the lower 60s. Southwest winds will increase on
Friday ahead of the next front and could reach 8-12 mph during the
afternoon hours. Dry air will still be in place, resulting in
minimum relative humidity around 30-35%, but the lowest RH values
are forecast to be over northeast MS, displaced from the stronger
winds to the northwest. This should limit the potential for
elevated fire weather conditions.

A strong northern stream trough will move across the Great Lakes
Friday night, with a trailing shortwave trough approaching the
Mid-South late Saturday. This will drive another cold front
through the CWA on Saturday. The GFS produces some very light QPF
over middle/east TN on Saturday but keeps areas west of the
Tennessee River dry. The ECMWF fails to produce any QPF at all
with this system. Given the dearth of moisture within this
pattern, the ECMWF solution is preferred and no precip will be
included. Temperatures on Saturday will be tricky depending on the
timing of the cold front, but afternoon highs by Sunday are
forecast to be in the 50s.

Benign weather conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures forecast to remain below normal during this period. A
strong trough will dig across the western CONUS early next week.
The northern branch of this system is progged to move across the
Great Lakes on Tuesday with an additional wave at the base of the
trough moving into the Southern Plains by midweek. There is some
indication that we`ll have sufficient moisture return ahead of
this front to produce some light precipitation by midweek, but
that is right at the end of the forecast period.




VFR. A cold front entering the Memphis metro will continue SE
through the area this evening. The strong pressure gradient and
gustier north winds will lag behind the primary wind shift by
several hours. Steady northerly winds continue tomorrow with gusts
becoming less frequent under clear skies. Winds diminishing
Wednesday evening.





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