Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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398
FXUS62 KMHX 241030
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
630 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over the area while moving
offshore today and tonight. The high will remain offshore
through the weekend with the next cold frontal system moving
through the area Tuesday night followed by a dry cold frontal
passage on Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Friday...High pressure will continue to ridge into
the area while moving offshore through tonight as upper ridging
builds over the area. This will result in winds veering to the
south and coupled with diurnal heating will lead to warmer high
temperatures around 70 degrees inland and the low 60s Outer
Banks. Expect scattered high based cumulus clouds to form with
heating this afternoon. Will let the Frost Advisory expire at 9
AM as low temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 30s
over inland portions of Onslow and Carteret counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Surface high pressure offshore will
continue to extend into the area while upper ridging remains
over the southeast. Low level S/SW flow will produce milder
overnight lows in the upper 40s inland to lower 50s coast. Winds
may decouple inland late and this could result in the formation
of patchy fog as diurnal clouds dissipate in the early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 am Fri...Models in good agreement through the period.
Weekend is looking dry and warm as the surface/upper ridge
along the east coast moves slowly east. Will keep dry forecast
for Sunday and Sunday night, the exception being isolated
showers across the central and southern coastal waters. Warm
temps in store for this weekend with deep southwest flow across
the region. Lower to mid 70s forecast for both Saturday and
Sunday with slightly cooler upper 60s Outer Banks. With the cold
front approaching early next week, I introduced chance PoPs
along the coastal plain Monday, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Tuesday will see the cold front moving through. Guidance PoPs
going as high as likely, but this far in advance will cap at 50%
for now. The front will move off the coast Tuesday night and
the PoPs were tapered off from west to east. A weak secondary
front will pass through on Wednesday but forecast soundings show
moisture very limited so will continue dry forecast. Thursday
looks dry for now, but precip will be developing to the
southwest as a warm front begins to lift north toward the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period as dry high pressure continues to influence the
weather while moving offshore. Scattered high based afternoon
cumulus clouds are expected today. Late tonight there is enough
low level moisture to support shallow/patchy ground fog late as
winds decouple.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Fri...VFR through Monday night, then sub-VFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Surface winds will
be from the SSW 10-15 knots Saturday, S 10-15 knots Sunday, SW
around 10 knots Monday and SW 10-15 knots Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Friday...Large NE swell continues across the
waters early this morning with the highest seas over the
central waters with buoy 41025 now down to 6 ft from an earlier
high of 9 ft at 11 PM Thursday. Have allowed the Advisory for
the central waters to expire at 6 AM as seas should continue to
subside and be below 6 ft in the next hour or, thus will
mention locally higher seas vicinity of Diamond Shoals with the
7 AM update.


Surface high pressure will move offshore today and continue to
extend over the waters tonight, resulting in veering winds from
easterly 5 to 15 kt early this morning to southerly this
afternoon. Winds are forecast to become S/SW 5 to 15 kt tonight.
Seas are forecast to subside to 2-3 feet all waters by this
afternoon and continue tonight.


Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Fri...The marine area will be in between systems
through the period. A surface/upper ridge will be moving off the
coast this weekend, and a cold front will approach from the west
early next week. South to southwest flow is forecast through the
period, with wind speeds averaging 5-15 knots. Seas north of
Oregon Inlet and south of Cape Lookout will average 2-4 feet
through Sunday night, then build to 3-5 feet Monday and Tuesday.
Seas from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout will average 2-4 feet
through Sunday, building to 3-5 feet Sunday night, and to 4-6
feet Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ095-098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA



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