Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241955
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
355 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will lift north of the area tonight. A cold
front will move through from the west Thursday morning. High
pressure will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A cold
front will slowly approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Wed...Tornado Watch #266 is now in effect through
midnight tonight for Eastern NC.

Latest sfc analysis shows 996mb low over Kentucky, with
attendant cold front draped through the TN valley and deep
south, and stationary front draped from about Rodanthe to
Greenville back into central/western NC. Upper low over the MO
valley region will continue to dig SE weakening slightly as
surface cold front pushes eastward tonight. Stationary front
will gradually lift northward this evening and tonight, as cold
front pushes through the area late tonight and early Thursday.

Latest radar imagery shows light showers developing across SE
NC, with bulk of precip across GA/SC. Models continue to show
good lift/instability as upper forcing increases this afternoon
and early evening as sfc cold front and upper trough approach
from the west. Eastern NC is outlooked in a Enhanced to Slight
Risk of severe weather. The primary threats will be damaging
wind gusts, hail, moderate to heavy rainfall as well as an
isolated tornado. Scattered showers and storms will begin
developing this afternoon, likely becoming numerous this
evening. At this time it looks like the best severe threat will
be between 5pm-2am. Starting to see some breaks in the cloud
cover, which will help the atms to destabilize. Latest
mesoanalysis shows SB CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg. Forecast
soundings show instability indices MU CAPE values 2500-3000
J/kg, LI -6/-9C...with increasing shear, 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50
kt and low level helicity values increasing. PWAT values
increase to around 2 inches again this afternoon and tonight. So
periods of moderate to heavy rain will be a concern, esp for
locations that saw heavy rain last night. An additional 1-2"
inches of rain likely, so localized flooding will be possible.
Will continue pops increasing to categorical this evening, with
mention of severe/heavy rain wording. Per latest high res
guidance, expect convection to push east off the coast after
06z...though some scattered activity could re- develop behind
the main line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Stacked low will move into the Mid-Atlantic as
attendant cold front pushes through Eastern NC. Could still be
enough forcing and instability to trigger scattered showers and
storms. SPC keeps the region in a Marginal Risk for svr storms,
though parameters looks less impressive than Wed with drier air
in place. Looks colder aloft, -15C at 500mb with freezing levels
around 10kft. Still cannot rule out an isolated strong storm
developing with gusty winds and hail. Breezy gradient winds
develop in the afternoon, with gusts 20-30 mph. Low level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...Drier weather is expected for Friday
and most of Saturday as high pressure surface and aloft builds
over the area. This will be followed by broad upper
troughing/more zonal flow aloft which will result in a more
unsettled weather pattern from Sunday afternoon through early
next week as a sluggish cold front moves slowly through the
area.

Friday and Saturday...Expecting warm and mainly dry weather
this period with high pressure over the area. Will continue
slight chance PoPs north Saturday afternoon but not expecting
much aerial coverage.

Sunday through Wednesday...More unsettled weather expected this
period as the pattern will become more favorable for scattered
convection as a series of weak disturbances rotating through the
flow interact with a slow moving cold front forecast to be in
the area. Will continue 30-40% PoPs Sunday and Monday and
20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be well into the 80s
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Currently a mixed bag of VFR/MVFR with some
areas of broken 2kft ceilings. Widespread sub-VFR conditions
expected to develop this evening as convection overspreads the
area. Could see brief periods of IFR in heavier showers. Strong
to severe storms will be possible this evening. Conditions will
likely improve to VFR Thursday morning. Scattered showers/storms
develop in the afternoon. Gusty SW winds Thu afternoon/evening,
with gusts 20-30 mph.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...VFR expected Fri-Sat in drier regime
but increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and
Thunderstorms Sunday and Monday with brief periods of sub VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...A stationary front is stalled across the
northern Pamlico Sound and between Oregon Inlet and Hatteras
this afternoon, with main cold front well back to the west. The
front will finally lift north this evening and tonight. Latest
obs show variable winds 5-15kt, generally N/NE 5-10 kt north of
the boundary and S/SW 5-15 kt south. Seas have subsided to 3-5
feet north of Ocracoke and 4-7 feet south. Expect conditions to
deteriorate this evening and overnight as gradient tightens
ahead of approaching cold front. The front will move through the
waters early Thursday. SCA in effect for the sounds, coastal
waters and inland rivers. Strong SW winds tonight, 20-30 kt, may
diminish a bit early Thursday, but remain gusty into Thu night.
Winds could gust to near gale force over the coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet tonight, but will be brief. NWPS and
Wavewatch have seas building to 6-11 feet tonight, subsiding to
5-10 feet Thu.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...Poor boating conditions linger into
Fri evening with improvement expected for most of the Memorial
Day weekend.

Southwest winds 20-30 Thursday night will gradually veer toward
the west and diminish to 20 to 25 kt by daybreak Friday and 15
to 20 kt Fri afternoon. 8-12 ft seas will subside to 7-9 ft Fri
morning and 4-6 ft Fri afternoon.

Much improved conditions are expected over the waters this
weekend. Winds are forecast to be southwest 10-15 kt Saturday
through Sunday morning with seas 2-4 ft. The SW winds are then
forecast to increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night to 15 to
20 kt with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. Monday SW winds are
forecast to be 10 to 15 knots but seas are forecast to remain 3
to 5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/EH
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD



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