Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281905
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight will shift offshore
Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will then remain offshore
through early next week with a Piedmont trough producing
chances for thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Wed...High pressure will remain over the region
tonight with clear skies and light winds expected. Good
radiational cooling will lead to another night of comfortable
temperatures with lows inland in the upper 50s to lower 60s and
and mid to upper 60s beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wed...The surface high will shift offshore with a
a light southerly return flow developing. This will lead to an
increase in dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s which is a
higher than today but not stifling. Highs will be in the mid to
perhaps upper 80s inland lower 80s beaches with patchy high
based afternoon cumulus clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...High pressure will shift off the coast
through the long term period with typical summer pattern
developing. Scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible
beginning Friday lasting through early next week.

Friday/Friday Night...A weak short wave will move into the area
from the southwest during the day. Latest 28/12Z model suite
continues to indicate showers with some embedded thunder
possible for mainly the southern and western areas of the FA.
Will maintain the low chance pops until further model runs can
handle timing and strength of this shortwave, as precip chances
may have to be raised for some areas with subsequent forecasts.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will shift to the coast and coastal
waters Friday Night and maintained chance PoPs along the coast
for this. High temps will reach the upper 80s inland with mid
80s for coastal areas.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon through this period. Forecasted pops
based on climo (20-40 percent), with interior areas seeing best
chances for scattered storms each afternoon and early evening,
then best chances along the coast and offshore during the
overnight periods. A weak front may aid shower and thunderstorm
development Sunday or Monday, though this feature too weak and
subtle to indicate higher than chance at this time. High temps
will range from the low 90s inland to mid 80s near the coast,
with lows 72 to 78, coolest well inland and warmest on the
beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday...A bit more uncertainty this period,
as ECM is indicating building hts/thicknesses which would limit
convection, while GFS/CMC are indicating a weakness in the
building ridge which may keep scattered showers/storms in the
fcst. Will maintain the 20 pops for the FA attm which is in
line with ECM Ensemble MOS probs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Thursday/...
As of 125 PM Wed...High confidence for VFR conditions will
mostly dominate the TAF period. High pressure will continue
across the region with a few daytime clouds developing this
afternoon. Skies will clear tonight and winds become
calm...leading to the increase chance of shallow fog to develop.
Think the best areas will be KPGV and KEWN as they are located
next to the river. Any fog development will erode
away during the morning...leading to mostly clear skies and
light SE flow.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Some brief sub-VFR periods are possible
each day starting Friday as some scattered mainly afternoon and
evening storms pop up, and could see some periods of MVFR- IFR
fog/low stratus early morning beginning on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /tonight and Thursday/...
As of 125 PM Wed...High pressure over the waters tonight will
shift east well out into the Atlantic Thursday were it will
continue to influence the weather through early next week. This
will cause current NE winds to veer to the E overnight and SE
to S on Thursday. Speeds of 10 to 15 kt through early this
evening will diminish to 10 kt or less late tonight and Thursday
morning then increase slightly to 10 to 15 kt Thursday
afternoon. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft through Thursday.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...Fair boating conditions expected
through the long term as Bermuda high pressure offshore will
prevail through the period. This will produce SW winds of 5-15
kt through the weekend into early next week with seas mainly 2-3
ft, though some ocnl 4 ft seas for the outer central/southern
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...JME/TL



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