Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241644
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1144 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will continue moving
northeast today. High pressure will build in from the west
through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the area
Thursday followed by a Northwest flow of seasonably cool and
dry air Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Tue...No major changes with update. Have edged temps
up a degree or so save for the NE zones, as dry downsloping
WNW winds will allow for good mixing today, with gusty winds
but mild temps around 60 most areas.

Previous discussion...As of 700 AM Tuesday...no changes with
update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...upper low center over northern OBX will
lift NE this morning with surface low moving along southern New
England coast. Main precip shield with upper low has moved NE
but will continue 20-30 POPs for NE coast early this morning for
possible lingering light rain. Widespread lower SCU under CAA
inversion will gradually lift and scatter out by afternoon as
drier air spreads in from NW, with NE sections slowest to clear.
Max temps mainly mid to upper 50s with some lower 50s northern
OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Ridging surface and aloft will result in
mostly clear skies and diminishing winds, allowing temps to
drop to around 40 inland and mid 40s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 am Tue...Models in overall good agreement and used a
blend. Surface/upper ridge axis over the state will move east
during the day. The remainder of the period will see a broad
upper trof covering much of the eastern half of the nation. The
only precip during the long term will be with the cold front
forecast to pass through the forecast area Thursday morning.
Latest model runs are wetter than previous and have bumped up
PoPs to 40%. No change on the timing, as the front will move
quickly off the coast by midday so kept all precip in the
morning. Wednesday will be the warmest day, with highs in the
mid to upper 60s, except some cooler mid 50s northern Outer
Banks. Highs Friday through Monday will average in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Nighttime lows will be in the lower/mid 30s,
except for milder upper 30s/lower 40s Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1145 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the
short term along with gusty NW winds this afternoon. Most of
the clouds from this morning have moved offshore with just a few
clouds remaining across most of the airspace. Winds this
afternoon and evening will be gusty out of the NW 15 to 20 knots
and will become lighter tonight. Winds will eventually go calm
over most inland areas with clear skies expected overnight.
Enough dry air will be in place to prevent the formation of fog
however. Winds will strengthen again Wednesday morning out of
the SW 5 to 10 knots with continued clear skies.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...VFR through the period. Only exception
will be Thursday morning as a cold front moves through. Sub-VFR
in scattered showers forecast generally from 12-18Z. Surface
winds from the SW 10-15 knots Wed, W 15-20 knots Thu, W 10-20
knots Fri and Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Long period NE swell producing surf
around 8 feet prompted issuance of High Surf Advisory late
Monday evening for Outer Banks north of Hatteras and this will
continue until 1 PM this afternoon. Swell will gradually
diminish and will also be weakened by offshore winds.

Pressure gradient between departing surface low and high moving
in from west will produce gusty NW winds through this evening.
Added SCA for Pamlico Sound as frequent gusts to 25 KT expected
there as well. Winds will diminish below 20 KT all waters by
late tonight.

South of Hatteras...elevated seas will be mainly over outer
waters due to offshore winds and will subside tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Models in good agreement through the period,
with a flow averaging west to northwest. Winds on the coastal
waters will average 15-25 knots, with adjacent sounds and rivers
averaging 10-20 knots. North of Oregon Inlet and south of
Ocracoke, small craft conditions will end Wednesday night and
Thursday night, respectively. However, from Oregon Inlet to
Ocracoke, small craft conditions will exist through the period.
Thursday morning, ahead of a cold front, winds may gust to gale
force from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. Also, small craft advisory
winds likely on the Pamlico Sound on Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-150-
     156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/SGK
MARINE...JBM/HSA



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