Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300453
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SAT...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
UPDATE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 50S N TO MID/UPR 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
REGION SAT WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TRF.
PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH EARLY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING LOOKS MINIMAL OVER
THE REGION SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA INLAND DURING THE
AFTN WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SUN SAT WITH
LOW CLOUDS EARLY AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SHLD SEE ENOUGH
FOR HIGHS LOW/MID 70S SW TO LOW/MID 60S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL START
ERODING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A PROLONGED TROUGH
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  THIS WILL
MEAN ACTIVE WEATHER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSES INTERACT WITH SFC FEATURES.  WILL TRY TO BREAK IT
DOWN BELOW WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALOFT, CONFIDENCE STARTS TO DROP A BIT AFTER TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH AN ERODING CAD TO THE WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FEEL ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NC WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EVEN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  AS RETURN
FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY, SO TOO WILL THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. GIVEN MID LEVEL LIFT/IMPULSES CROSSING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AT THE SFC, SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SVR.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 80
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE OBX. A BRIEF REPRIEVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES, ALBEIT WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVERAGE,
FEEL TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
OBX.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THIS JUNCTURE AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO CROSS THE
AREA, ONLY TO BECOME STALLED AND EITHER BISECTS OR MOVE JUST SOUTH
OF EASTERN NC TUESDAY. GIVEN MODEL CONTINUITY, HAVE SIDED WITH THE
EURO AND BROUGHT THE FRONT THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. WE
NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AND THE
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CERTAINLY DICTATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. SO ANY MEANDER OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
IMPACT PRECIP/WX TYPE AND TEMPS. EXPECT WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
RIDE THIS BOUNDARY MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON, WITH
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BETTER COVERAGE HARDER TO PIN POINT AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING THE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF TIME OF HEAVIER RAIN AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS
AT THE SFC.  THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS A BIT AMBIGUOUS AT
THIS POINT, BUT THE FACT THAT MULTIPLE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE GIVES MORE CREDIBILITY. SO HAVE UPPED POPS TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA,
TEMPERATURE WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH MODEL SPREAD ON THESE VALUES
QUITE SUBSTANTIAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, HAVE TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S GIVEN NORTHER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENT SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIT
THE AREA.  GIVEN THE VERY DEEP TROUGH, ALBEIT CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW, WE MAY SEE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME
WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  SOME MODELS
HINT AT THIS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
SOMEWHAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRIES TO EDGE INTO THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.  TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO AND POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER. BUT FEEL WITH SUBSIDENCE,
MID 70S IS A GOOD BET AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY THOUGH EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LATEST GDNC AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
RE-DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...THEN PERSIST AROUND 2500 TO 3500
FT DURING AFTN WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY HOVER NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3KFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
DEEP INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CEILINGS AGAIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

LONG TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SFC LOW TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INSTIGATING MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE FRONT BECOMES
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE FOR SFC LOWS TO RIDE. A MORE
POTENT LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN DURING THIS
TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
GIVEN THAT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE JUST NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. EITHER
WAY, VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH A PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT GIVEN SUCH AN ACTIVE PERIOD, ANTICIPATING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OFF AND ON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT 10-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT...AND ELY WINDS 10-15KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR UPDATE. HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND S INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONT MAINLY N TO NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONT AT 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH POSS SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY AS A
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS 10-15KTS AND
SEAS WILL BUILD 3 TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THE
SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOT CROSSED THE AREA. THE GFS/WWATCH IS
INDICATING A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TO CROSS WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD MEAN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS.
HOWEVER, HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO KEEPING LIGHTER NORTH WINDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SFC
LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD/LEP



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