Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191027
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
627 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through late this
week then slide offshore over the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach from the west early next week then cross the
area mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 625 AM Thu...No changes planned with very spotty fog
quickly dissipating after sunrise with msunny skies rest of the
day.

Prev disc...No signif changes from prev fcst with high pres
continuing to dominate with dry airmass leading to msunny skies.
Some patchy fog expected thru daybreak inland. Satl shows some
sct/bkn SCU working onshore currently...mdls show moisture at
850mb cont inland from cst thru early morn hrs then pushing back
offshore so expect clouds to diminish later in the morn.
Thicknesses rise a bit and high temps shld be near to slightly
above normal with mid to upr 70s inland and low/mid 70s cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thu...High pres will cont with mainly clr skies.
With light to calm winds good radiational cooling expected with
lows ranging from 45 to 50 inland to upr 50s/around 60 beaches.
Some patchy late night fog likely again inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thu...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front will move
towards the area early next week and slowly cross mid next week.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure will build into the
region with clear and dry weather and light northeast to east
winds. Low relative humidities will spell mild days and
seasonably cool nights. High temps will creep back above climo
with readings 75-80 on Fri, and into the upper 70s to low 80s
Sat and Sun. Morning lows will be in the upr 40s/mid 50s Sat
morning, and into the 50s Sun morning.

Monday through Wednesday...Next significant shortwave/cold
front moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. The
19/00Z global model suite has slowed down the progression of the
shortwave and cold front, especially the ECMWF. The upr trough
becomes a closed low and hence a slower solution would be
favored. With the run- to- run inconsistency amongst global
model suite having a tough time resolving amplitude of short
wave trough and thus timing of the associated cold front will
cap continue with just chance pops. Monday and Monday night looks
mainly dry and have tapered down pops a bit. Highest pops are
now Tue into Tue night, though Wed could be quite wet if the
slower ECM verifies, so pops are 40-50 percent through mid
week. Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but have
maintained the slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Monday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the low 80s inland to
70s beaches. Tue could be equally warm with the slower
advancement of the front. Lows early next week quite mild with
the warm and moist southerly flow with readings mainly in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...VFR shld dominate much of the time with just
some patchy MVFR to IFR vsbys in radiational fog late at
night...with best chc of IFR occurring at PGV. Skies shld cont
to be mclr thru pd with just some patchy CU and high clouds at
times as high pres conts over area.

Long Term /Fri through Mon/...
As of 320 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region. However,
there will be optimal radiational conditions Fri night, and some
patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with
their proximity to rivers. Maybe a better chance of more
widespread overnight/early morning fog all TAF sites this
weekend as low level moisture increases and skies remain clear
with calm winds each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 625 AM Thu...No changes with winds cont to slowly subside
with high pres just to W.

Prev disc...High pres will remain centered W of area thru the
period however pres gradient will cont to relax leading to
lighter winds. NE winds 10 to 15 kts today will be mainly 10 kts
or less tonight. All buoys showing seas of 5 ft now so plan on
dropping SCA. Seas of 2 to 4 ft N and 3 to 5 ft S today will
become 2 to 4 feet all wtrs tonight.

Long Term /Fri through Mon/...
As of 320 AM Thu...The gradient relaxes through the weekend
with sprawling high pressure to the north. NE winds through Sat
becoming more easterly on Sunday and into Monday though speeds
only 5-10 kt through the period with seas 2-4 ft bringing
excellent boating conditions throughout the marine zones. Winds
turn more southeasterly on Monday as high pressure moves
offshore though will remain light and no higher than 10 kt.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



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