Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 252051
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
451 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system will slowly move northeast away from the
region tonight. High pressure in the central Atlantic will build
in Wednesday through the weekend bringing above normal
temperatures and below normal rain chances. A cold front will
approach from the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Vertically stacked low pressure centered
over eastern North Carolina this afternoon will continue to
lift NE to off the mid Atlantic coast by late tonight. Isolated
to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon are expected to diminish this evening with loss of
surface heating although may still see a few showers persist
this evening into the early morning hours, especially northeast
sections. Despite a saturated ground, low clouds and light winds
are expected to limit fog development. Lows expected in the
mid/upper 50s inland to low to mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Low pressure will continue to lift away
from the area Wednesday with high pressure building in from the
west. Dry and warmer with highs in the low 80s inland to
mid/upper 70s along the coast and NE sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
A true sneak preview of summer is just around the corner for the
extended with highs approaching 90 this weekend.

With a southwest flow of air Thursday temps will warm well into
the 80s inland to near 80 along the coast. Friday into the
weekend a large Bermuda high will develop off the coast, with
upper level heights increasing to 588 DM or higher. The result
will be a period of highs into the 80s everywhere, with near 90
degree readings inland. While a mostly sunny sky and low precip
chances are expected for most, with the southwest flow and large
temperature differential between the land and ocean, daily
chances for pop up showers/storms are possible along the sea
breeze. Certainly not expecting a wash out but keep this in mind
if you live just inland from the coast, where the sea breeze
tends to be more active.

Our next shot for more organized precipitation will come later
Monday and Tuesday with a cold front. The 12Z GFS has slowed the
progress of this front, keeping showers into part of Tuesday.
Confidence is medium we will see at least a round of showers
with the front itself but confidence is low on whether the
timing is Monday or early Tuesday. With the clouds and showers
around temps won`t be quite as hot next week or back into the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 2 PM Tue...Generally VFR cigs at the terminals this
afternoon with occasional reductions to cig/vsbys in
showers/tstms this afternoon as the upper low lifts NE across
the region. Lower cigs progged to wrap around the upper low and
advect into the region overnight bringing MVFR to IFR cigs.
Guidance seem to not have the best handle on the current
placement of the lower cigs across the piedmont leading to low
confidence of occurrence. MOS guidance and NARRE are on the
pessimistic side of guidance while the SRF probs generally keep
VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions expected Wed.

Long Term /Wed night through Sat night/...
As of 330 PM Tue...VFR expected through the period. Each day an
isolated thunderstorm is possible along the sea breeze but
proximity to any one terminal will be low confidence and the
duration would be short.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Tue...Low pressure will move across the waters this
evening and move to off the mid Atlantic coast late tonight and
Wednesday. SW winds expected around 10-20 kt south of Oregon
inlet and 5-10 kt north this evening, becoming west overnight. W
winds diminish to 5-10 kt all waters by Wednesday afternoon and
back to SW late. Seas around 6-10 ft this afternoon will
continue to slowly subside tonight into Wed and are expected to
drop below 6 ft all waters Wednesday evening.

Long Term /Wed night through Sun/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
Relatively good boating conditions into the weekend. Southwest
winds will generally be 10 to 20 kts through the period, with
waves 3 to 5 feet. Brief small craft advisory conditions
possible Friday central outer water as seas build to 6 feet,
otherwise generally below small craft conditions through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 PM Tue...Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
across eastern NC will diminish tonight as low pressure lifts
away from the region. The main hydrology focus has now shifted
to river flooding as widespread 5-8 inches of rainfall fell
across the upper portions of the basin. The Tar River in
Greenville is currently forecast to crest above major flood
stage, while the Neuse River in Kinston and Contentnea Creek in
Hookerton are expected to crest above moderate flood stage, and
the NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin is expected to crest above
this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1215 AM Tue...High surf advisory continues for beaches
north of Cape Lookout through today with surf heights 7 to 10
feet. Minor ocean overwash will be possible as well given large
waves/periods. High threat of rip currents at all beaches
today.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK/SGK
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...EH/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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