Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Strong high pressure will build in from the west behind a strong
cold front through the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the
region Monday night followed by high pressure next Tuesday through


As of 340 AM Saturday, strong cold air advection underway with
strong cold front edging further offshore. Satellite showing some
4000-8000 foot ceilings in some wraparound moisture associated
with the mid-level trough lagging behind the front, mainly across
our northern CWA. Skies should become clear in all areas by mid-
morning. High temperatures should be fairly uniform across the
region, mainly in the low to mid 60s with gusty WNW/NW winds which
should subside by later in the day.


As of 340 AM Saturday, high pressure should build in from the west
tonight with winds gradually dropping to 5 knots or less by Sunday
morning. This will allow temperatures to fall to the low/mid 40s
over most land areas with lower 50s along the Outer Banks.


As of 330 AM Sat...Long term period will feature mainly dry
conditions and more seasonably cool late October temperatures.
Next chance of showers does not arrive until late in the week.

Sunday...Progressive short wave trough will exit off the coast
with sfc high pres building into the deep south. Winds will back
to the WNW with building hts and in response temps will moderate
back into the upr 60s (mid 60s OBX) across the FA. Wall to wall
sunshine expected with very dry column. Another cool night Sun
night with lows dropping back into the mid/upr 40s interior to 50s
on the beaches.

Monday...A brief warmup back to above climo on Mon as flow backs
to the W in response to approaching reinforcing short wave/dry
cold front that will push through Mon night. Highs should reach
the mid/upr 70s as downsloping/diabatic flow off the mtns acts to
warm the bndry layer across E NC. Winds turn NW behind the dry
front Mon night with temps dropping back into the 40s (50s

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably cool conditions for this
period as cool Canadian high pres ridges into the region from the
north bringing high temps in the mid/upr 60s and lows in the 40
across the interior and 50s on the beaches.

Thursday Night into Friday...Introduced a chance of rain showers
for this period as next progressive short wave appears set to
translate across the Eastern CONUS. The 22/00Z operational GFS
appears to be a dry outlier due to lack of support from the
CMC/ECMWF, as well as its NCEP ensemble mean. Temps will warm back
into the 70s by day and 50s by night as return flow develops.


Short Term /Through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 1255 AM Saturday, all precipitation has moved east of the
TAF sites. Gusty NW winds should start to drop off a bit toward
morning. Skies have cleared but some wraparound ceilings of
8000-10000 feet may impact KPGV later in the night. West to
northwest winds and clear skies will prevail through Saturday with
VFR conditions continuing.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR SKC is expected over the area through
middle part of next week as dry high pressure prevails across the


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Saturday, marine observations showing WNW/NW winds
gusting close to 30 knots along the central and southern waters,
with winds a bit lighter on the northern waters currently. Seas
are continuing around 5-7 feet. Will monitor trends in waveheights
and may be able to lower a bit in the forecast on the next update
as local SWAN/NWPS showing waves as high as 10 feet, which may be
overdone given the offshore flow. Winds drop off late tonight but
seas will likely remain elevated through mid-morning Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...NW winds will diminish on Sun with high pres
building into the deep south. The high will pass to the south of
the waters Sun night with winds becoming W ahead of next front set
to pass through Mon night. Speeds generally 10-20 kt expected
through Mon night. The W winds become N on Tuesday and could see a
brief period of SCA especially northern waters as a surge to 15-25
kt is possible. The N winds veer NE on Wednesday as high pres
builds into the Great Lakes region.


As of 345 AM Friday...Continue Coastal Flood Advisory for
soundside of Outer Banks through today. Water in sounds still
running high from all the water flowing in from the rivers and
with NW winds 15 to 25 mph, water will pile up on soundside of
the Outer Banks. Water levels will increase to around 2 feet above
normal and poss reach 3 feet in localized spots producing minor
flooding of low lying areas. Conditions should improve a bit later
this afternoon as winds start to diminish.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ136-
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ130-
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.



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