Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 251530
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore pattern will
prevail through the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach
from the north Thursday, then remain stalled over the mid-
Atlantic region through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1100 AM Monday...Persistence forecast on track and no
changes with update. 12Z KMHX sounding indicates subsidence
inversion has lowered slightly to near 820 MB and again will
preclude any deep convective development. Temps on track for highs
mainly mid 90s inland with several hours of Heat Indices 105 to
109.

/Previous discussion/
As of 630 AM Monday, There were no significant changes this
update, except to add some patchy fog and low clouds over portions
of the coastal plain based on observations. The fog and stratus
should dissipate quickly after sunrise. The hot and humid forecast
continues as the area remains under the influence of a strong
upper ridge with moist southerly flow across the area. Expect
temperatures again to reach highs in the mid 90s. Moist dewpoints
in the afternoon can be expected to again be in the 74 to near 80
degree range across the area during peak heating. This is based
off of a persistence forecast from yesterdays values. The result
will be heat index values in the 105 to 109 range across the area
during the afternoon. Continued the heat advisory for the entire
area except Ocracoke Island (Mainland Hyde County). Models
continue to indicate no convective development again today with
subsidence inversion likely keeping area capped.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday, Expect another hot and humid night with lows
again in the mid 70s to around 80 degree range. Do not expect much
of a chance of any precipitation overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 am Mon...Little day-to-day change seen throughout the
long term as heat wave continues. Axis of Bermuda high will
continue to extend into the southeast states with a warm humid
southwest flow. Piedmont trof will redevelop over the midstate
area Wednesday and continue into the weekend. Will maintain dry
forecast for today but with trof in place for the remainder of the
period will keep low chance diurnal PoPs each day. Slightly better
chance for area- wide PoPs this weekend as broad upper trof passes
by to the north. Dangerous heat index values will continue into
the weekend with daily highs in the lower to mid 90s inland. Only
a few degrees cooler on the Outer Banks with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term /Through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Monday, Good aviation conditions expected through
the period with mostly VFR conditions expected. The only exception
is for a small area of IFR fog and low stratus across portions of
the coastal plain, including OAJ and PGV this morning. This
should burn off quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, continued to
trend with persistence given little/no change to airmass.
Scattered diurnal cumulus is expected to develop again today with
light SW winds and there could be some patchy MVFR fog towards
morning overnight tonight.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/
As of 3 am Mon...Dry weather Tuesday, but scattered diurnal
convection possible Wednesday through Friday. Late night/early AM
patchy fog possible each day. Winds SW 5-15 knots by day, around 5
knots each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1100 AM Monday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 630 AM Monday, no significant changes this update. With
little changing in the weather pattern, a persistence forecast
will continue. Southwest winds will continue cycle of speeds
around 10 KT this morning, then increasing again this afternoon to
around 15 kt with gusts to 20 through the evening, cycling back
down towards Tuesday Morning. Seas Seas will be about 2 to 3 feet
with a few areas of 4 feet in the central and northern waters
possible during the evening hours.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/
As of 3 am Mon...Axis of Bermuda high will remain to the south
through the period. Very little change seen each day, with SW
winds 10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and
SW 5-15 knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RSB/JBM
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RSB/HSA
MARINE...RSB/JBM/HSA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.