Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 210725
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC TODAY BUT
WITH WITH A WANING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST
AND WELL OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% COASTAL POPS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY
VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING AND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING ESPECIALLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND
WITH 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. WILL CALL SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUE WITH
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE AND COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THOUGH WITH
HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND QPF AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SWLY FLOW BRINGS A
MODEST WARM UP TUE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 80 INLAND TO AROUND
70 ALONG THE COAST. CAA RAMPS UP LATE TUES NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR WED AND
THURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRI WITH SW FLOW AND
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
AROUND 80 INLAND TO LOW/MID 70S COAST. KEEPING SLT CHC TO LOW END
CHC POPS FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS RATHER
WEAK. MODELS ARE DEPICTING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND COULD SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS WELL. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVENING AND
SOME MODELS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS...BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM MONDAY...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS CEILINGS LIFT
AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO
WANE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...WILL EXTEND THE GALES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. THE ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE
EXTENDED. VERTICALLY STACKED OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL
OUT TO SEA TODAY WITH LESSENING INFLUENCES ON THE WEATHER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY
ROUGH SEAS THIS MORNING OF 15+ FEET WILL SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6 FT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS INTO TUESDAY.


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LINGERING 6FT SEAS ON THE CENTRAL WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP TO 3-5FT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT
TO SW TUE AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AS SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6 FT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH A NWLY SURGE AROUND 15-25 KT
LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TUES NIGHT BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS...HOWEVER MODELS KEEP WINDS AROUND 15-20
KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
3-5 FT FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN 8+ FT ON THE OUTER
BANKS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO CONT HIGH SURF ADVRY THRU
EARLY TODAY. BASED ON DATA FROM THE TIDE GAUGE IN
ORIENTAL...WILL ALLOW THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z
AS WATER LEVELS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JME





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.