Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 241411
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY
AND FINALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. SPC
HAS UPGRADED EASTERN NC FROM SEE TEXT TO SLIGHT RISK AS SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
FORECAST. 1345Z SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30 KT OVER THE AREA NOW WITH A 35 KT MAX OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI
MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSES INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES -6 TO -8 C...SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES.
BIGGEST THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT HAIL AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ON
THE ORDER OF 14750-15250 FEET WOULD ARGUE AGAINST MUCH WIDESPREAD
HAIL THREAT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING...THEN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE FRONT...PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
SEABREEZE WILL ALL BE TRIGGER MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE TO AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
AROUND MID DAY THEN GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE
ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH LIFTED INDICES -5 TO -8 C AND SBCAPE VALUES
2000-2500 J/KG WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 30 KT...THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1420 METERS YIELD HIGH AROUND 90 INLAND TO
MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT FINALLY STALLING AROUND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING BUT GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHIFTS TO COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES WITH THE JET SLIDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD AND LOSS
OF SFC HEATING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECTED DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WED...FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT FRI WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG SRN AREAS WHERE WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS...SLGT CHC POPS INLAND. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT
ISOLD POPS FOR CST FRI NIGHT AND INLAND SXNS SAT. SW FLOW RETURNS IN
EARNEST ON SUN AS SHOULD THE RETURN OF AMS MSTR. WILL KEEP LOW CHC
POPS FOR INLAND AREAS WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG PIEDMONT TROF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LOW CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS
ALONG RESULTANT SEABREEZE.

HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS A WARM AND
MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPR TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONT THE CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO ERN NC. FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON TUE WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT BEST CHC POPS FOR COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S EXPECTED MON INLAND AHEAD OF FRONT THEN
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DESCENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND A MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
STALLING NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW
DEVELOPING AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING FROM NW TO SE. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY
WITH LIMITED PRECIP. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE IN CVRG LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURS...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WSW/SW
WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS AND 1-3 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE FLOW SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AS WELL AS A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO NW/N...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE WATERS WASHES OUT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THRU FRI
NIGHT. SW WINDS RETURN ON SAT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. PRES
GRAD TIGHTENS SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH WINDS INCRG
TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT CONTG
MON.

SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI AFTN CONTG THRU
SAT. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT SUNDAY AFTN AND PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON
WITH SCA CONDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG




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