Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 272234
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
634 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...BAND OF SHRA IS SHIFTING E ACROSS REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. THINK BULK OF THIS WILL BE OFF THE CST IN
NEXT CPL HRS AND TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM W TO E. LATER TONIGHT UPR
TRF WILL CROSS WITH SOME WIDELY SCT SHRA EXPECTED...POSS BRIEFLY
MIXED WITH SNOW MAINLY INLAND AND N HOWEVER SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING SO NO IMPACTS. NO CHANGE TO FCST LOWS WITH 30S
INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES. GUSTY N TO NW WINDS WILL CONT ALONG
THE CST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD A
CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND A
DEEP UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY
PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED SO HAVE KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40%. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY. SEE NO NEED
TO CHANGE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND MAIN
BAND OF SHRA AND EXPECT THAT TO DOMINATE THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH
POSS SOME BRIEF IFR ESPCLY CLSR TO CST. LATER TONIGHT CIGS WILL
LIFT TO MORE VFR WITH POSS SOME PDS OF MVFR AS WDLY SCT TO SCT
SHRA CROSS WITH PASSAGE OF UPR TRF. VFR SHLD DOMINATE SAT AS DRIER
AIR SPREAD IN. NNE WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY CST THEN
WILL SEE NW WINDS GUST 15 TO 20 KTS SAT ALL AREAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THEN VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 615 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGE WITH GUSTY N WINDS THIS EVENING
BECOME MORE NW AND DIMINISHING A BIT LATE.

PREV DISC...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY
POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 FT. HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO
THE ADVISORIES BASED ON OBSERVATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK WINDS
THERE SHOULD SUBSIDE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING
AT THE SAME TIME AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ON MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ARE FORECAST BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND CAPE LOOKOUT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY BECOMES PINCHED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
2-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME/HSA



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