Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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459
FXUS62 KMHX 150303
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through this evening followed by high
pressure from the north. Low pressure will move northeast across
the area Friday. High pressure will build in from the west
Friday night through Sunday. A complex frontal system will
affect the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Thursday...The latest sfc analysis shows the cold
front to the south of the area. No precip was observed with
this frontal passage as predicted. Skies will remain clear
tonight with some mid level clouds developing ahead of an
approaching mid level trough. Not expecting much CAA with this
frontal passage, expect overnight lows between 30-35 inland and
35-40 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Approaching mid level trough will induce
weak cyclogenesis along stalled frontal boundary to south and
models in good agreement of low tracking NE across area by late
afternoon. Models also keep precip well north and east of area
but some mid and high clouds expected. Track of low will result
in temp gradient of around 50 NW to near 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Weak ridging builds into the area this
weekend followed by a complex system moves into the region early
next week bringing better chances of rain.

Friday night...Another mid level trough pushes across the
region Fri night with surface low lifting NE of the area.
Lows around 30 well inland to upper 30s to around 40 coast.

Saturday through Sunday...Weak ridging and sfc high pressure
build into the region this weekend keeping conditions dry. Cool
temps expected Sat with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and
lows in the lower 30s inland to around 40 along the coast Sat
night. High pressure moves offshore Sun with increasing clouds
ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Return flow will bring
a warming trend Sun with highs expected in the mid 50s to around
60.

Sunday night through Wednesday...A better chance of rain
expected early next week as a series of shortwave troughs lift
out of the southern plains and lift across the area tapping into
Gulf moisture, however there remains significant spread among
guidance, especially with the strength and timing of the
systems, and forecast confidence remains low. 00z models have
trended a bit slower and drier but it appears the best chance
for widespread precip comes Mon into Mon night. Faster guidance
indicates precip may move in Sun night while slower guidance
suggests precip may linger into Tue night. A northern stream
trough progged to push across the region Tue night/early Wed
with high pressure building into the region Wed. Temps expected
to be above normal this period with predominant SW to W flow
across the region, cooling to near normal Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 7 pm Thursday...High confidence in VFR conditions will
dominate the TAF period. A dry cold front will push through the
area tonight with only patchy high clouds. Then late tonight mid
level clouds will develop ahead of an approaching mid level
shortwave with mid/high clouds to continue through Friday.
Currently, winds are calm, but winds will become light and
variable after the frontal passage.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday. A shortwave trough and weak surface low pressure push
across the region Fri bringing increasing clouds but cigs
expected to remain VFR. High pressure builds back into the
region over the weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in
advance of the next system approaching the region. Rain chances
increase late Sun night or Mon with periods of sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 10 PM Thursday...The latest buoy obs are showing NE winds
5-15 knots across all the waters and seas mostly 3-5 ft, except
over the central waters were seas remain around 6 ft.
Small Craft Advisory will continue over the central waters
through 1 AM.

The dry cold front has crossed the coastal waters this evening
and now winds are from the NE. Expect winds NE-E around 10 KT
overnight. Developing low pressure tracking NE inland of coast
will result in winds shifting back to SW Friday and increasing
to 15-25 KT during afternoon.

Seas expected to subside to 2-4 feet overnight but build back to
4-6 feet by late Friday afternoon.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Winds become NW around 15-25 kt Fri
night as the low rapidly deepens off the mid- Atlantic and New
England coast. Seas 4-6 ft Fri night. Winds gradually diminish
to W to NW around 10-15 kt Sat afternoon with seas subsiding to
2-4 ft as high pressure builds into the region. Winds diminish
to 5-10 kt Sat night, then becomes S/SW around Sun afternoon as
the high moves offshore while seas subside to 1-2 ft late Sat
night and Sun. The next system approaches from the west early
next week but significant uncertainty remains with the details
leading to a low confidence forecast. Do expect winds to
increase some as the system approaches and have SW winds
increasing to 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft Sun night
and Mon at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/BM
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM



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