Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230552
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
152 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED CLOUD COVER AND SCHC OF
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID PLACE
THE NW SECTOR IN CHC PRECIP GIVEN MORE CONSISTENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THIS REGION. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
MORE AMPLE LIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED IN FROM NE AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SW. THIS WILL VEER
WINDS FROM THE NE BY SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPED IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY
DESPITE PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SFC FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KT...UP TO 15 KT ON THE OBX. HOWEVER...
DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AS 850MB FRONT DOES NOT
PASS THROUGH UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO THE AREA...AND WITH TD VALS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 70S...LAYER
MIX RATIOS 15-16 G/KG...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE PRESENT AS
LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NAEFS...SREF...AND ECMWF SUGGEST
ACTIVITY MAY EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST...THOUGH
DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIKELY POPS ATTM. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND EXPECT MID 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER ON
THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING OVER AREA
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE MID WEEK.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING SAT EVENING...THEN SCT THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH SHRT WV
MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASING NE SFC FLOW. CONTINUED SLGT CHC POPS
FOR INTERIOR SRN SECTIONS SUN AFTN...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE.

12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON DEEPING UPR TROF OFF COAST PICKING UP
PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NRN CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING IT N-NE MID
WEEK...IN LINE WITH LATEST NHC/WPC SFC PROGS. MAIN EFFECTS FOR ERN
NC WOULD BE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG BEACHES FROM
INCREASING SWELL.

SFC AND UPR LVL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER AREA THU-FRI WITH ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FRIDAY...AND CLIMO 20/30 POPS FRI AFTN.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN MODERATING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT WILL BRING LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPED UNDER LIGHT NE
FLOW. WITH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA...FEEL FOG FORMATION/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE DENSE OR TOO WIDESPREAD. VCSH EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING WITH VCTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY RIDING ALONG THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANTICIPATE PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CLEAR LATER IN
THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
LCL SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT TSTMS SAT EVENING...THEN DRY WX EXPECTED
REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM N-NE. WINDS
MAINLY N-NE 5-15 MPH DURING PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE AREA. NE
WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS STILL AROUND
2 FT EVERYWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS BECOME NE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT TONIGHT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS INC TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING WITH
SEAS INC TO UP TO 4 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON SAT...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PERSISTING 15-20 KT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON KEEPING PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE WED...AND THUS FCST DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT THIS WOULD
CHANGE IF SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO COAST.

SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING NE WINDS...WITH 6 FT LIKELY OUTER
PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS SUN AFTN...AND CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SWELL FROM PSBL TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS TUE AND WED EVEN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/LEP
MARINE...JBM/HSA/TL/LEP






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