Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 290746
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY
THE DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH
FLORIDA/S GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY


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