Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270020
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
820 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Despite a very dry airmass above 850mb, elevated low level
moisture and a moderate E/NE breeze are generating convergence
induced cloud bands and isolated showers over the coastal waters.
This activity will continue to push onshore overnight, bringing
only light rainfall amounts, around a tenth of an inch or less to
coastal areas. Majority of showers should then dissipate soon
after passing west of I-95 with inland locations remaining mostly
dry. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s over much of the
region, except along the coast from the Cape southward where
onshore winds will keep lows in the low 70s. Forecast on track
with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions mainly expected. Isolated onshore
moving showers along the coast may produce brief MVFR conditions
overnight. Additional showers and isolated storms will be
possible as moisture increases across the region tomorrow,
spreading inland into the afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions
will occur with any of this activity, but coverage will be
scattered at best.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure ridge axis extending over north Florida
will maintain a moderate E/NE breeze over the waters overnight,
around 10-15 knots with seas ranging from 3-4 feet.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Weitlich
IMPACT WX...Cristaldi

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/

Fri-Sat...
Late week attention remains focused on the development and track the
incoming area of disturbed WX encroaching on the central/srn
Bahamas. NHC guidance continues to indicate an increasing chance for
this system to dvlp into a tropical/subtropical system on Fri as it
passes NE of the nrn Bahamas and makes a beeline for the Carolina
coast through Sat.

This track would put central FL in its peripheral subsidence region
that would tend to suppress precip. Indeed...winds thru the H100-H70
lyr will back to the N/NE as the system makes its closest approach
to the FL peninsula. However...this track also will erode the wrn
flank of the Atlc ridge while allowing PWAT values to increase to
1.25"-1.50" by 00Z Sat...and to arnd 1.50" by 00Z Sun.

Users should note that while direct impacts from this system are not
expected...its anticipated track would generate a NE long pd swell
over the lcl Atlc that will raise rip current threats along area
beaches as the Memorial Day weekend approaches.

Will go with 20/30 PoPs Fri...increasing to 30 PoPs Sat. Will limit
the use tsras to slgt chc given the increasing NE flow regime into
the weekend. Tempted to go higher on Sat...but it appears peninsula
will get caught in a col on the system`s srn flank that will
collapse the mid lvl steering flow. While this would favor the
formation of the east coast sea breeze...any shra/tsras that do form
most likely would dvlp and die in place.

Max temps near avg (U80s/L90s) except M80s along the immediate coast
due to the onshore flow. Those same winds will keep min temps AOA
avg (U60s/L70s).

Extended...(Prev Disc)
Departing low pressure to the north of the area will leave a loosely
organized pressure pattern regionally with a setup favoring
development of breeze boundaries each afternoon. Presence of near
seasonal precipitable water values will lead to diurnal storms
similar to what one would expect with the wet season fully underway.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 27/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 27/00Z...E/NE 12-15KTS with ocnl G18-22KTS. Btwn
27/00Z-27/03Z...bcmg NE 3-5KTS. Btwn 27/13Z-27/16Z...bcmg E/NE
7-11KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 27/12Z...S of KVRB slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft
27/12Z...S of KMLB-KISM chc MVFR shras...N of KMLB-KISM slgt chc
MVFR shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Hi pres ridge axis extending from the NC Outer Banks to
the NW GOMex will maintain a gentle to moderate E/NE breeze
overnight. Seas generally 3-4FT. Isold/sct shras in the Gulf
Stream mvg onshore.

Fri-Fri Night...Gentle to moderate E/NE breeze contg as an Erly wave
approaching the Srn Bahamas slowly dvlps into a closed low and lifts
NW toward the Carolina Coast. Seas 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT
offshore. Isold/sct shras.

Sat-Sat Night...Storm system will pass well N of the lcl Atlc
waters...but secondary effects may be felt in the form of a NE swell
that will enhance the lcl seas. Light to gentle E/NE breeze thru the
day...bcmg light W/SW overnight as the system approaches the
Carolina Coast. Seas 3-4FT areawide...up to 5FT in the Gulf Stream.
Chc shras/slgt chc tsras.

Sun-Sun Night...Lcl Atlc will be caught in a col on the storm
system`s Srn flank...resulting in a weak pgrad that will generate
shifting winds. Sfc/bndry lyr winds bcmg a light to gentle N/NE
breeze thru midday...light to gentle E/SE thru sunset...then light
to gentle S/SW overnight. Seas 3-4FT N of Sebastian Inlet...2-3FT S
of the Inlet. Chc shras/slgt chc tsras.

Mon-Tue...Storm system will gradually break down over the
Carolinas...allowing sfc hi pres ridge to reestablish itself over
the central/south FL peninsula. Prevailing light to gentle Srly
breeze...meandering btwn SE-SW with the formation of the diurnal
seabreeze/nocturnal land breeze. Seas subsiding to 2-3FT by Mon
aftn...contg thru Tue. Chc shras/slgt chc tsras.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  82  70  85 /  20  20  20  30
MCO  67  87  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  71  83  72  85 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  70  84  71  85 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  65  88  70  90 /   0  20  10  30
SFB  66  86  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  67  87  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  70  83  69  85 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$



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