Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220206
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT...A BRISK EAST WIND FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AS A RATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER HAS BEEN MODIFYING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WHILE LOW
LEVELS WERE MOISTENING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT A THIN DRY LAYER IN BETWEEN WILL MOISTEN OVERNIGHT.  THE
18Z GFS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ELEVATING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
THE NORTH AND 1.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTH BY 12Z SAT.  NOT MUCH PRECIP
IS GENERATED...BUT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SPRINKLES AND EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS TOWARDS DAWN.  THEREFORE HAVE ALREADY BUMPED UP POPS TO 20
PERCENT NORTH AND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES TO SET UP IN THE SOUTH
AND BRING A NARROW BAND WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
INTO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS.  MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK
THE NORTH COAST MINS UP SLIGHTLY.  EVEN THE NORTH INTERIOR MINS ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME STEADY OR RISE
A FEW DEGREES.

SAT...CONTINUED MOISTENING IS INDICATED SO IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY.  NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.  THE NEW
MOS THAT WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IS RUNNING
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE OPERATIONAL MOS.

A SMALL DRY LAYER ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HANG ON AND THERE ARE NO
APPARENT IMPULSES ALOFT...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.  THE 18Z GFS MOS POPS JUMPED ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT TO 50-60
PERCENT AREAWIDE...BUT WILL NOT GO NEARLY THAT HIGH YET...OPTING TO
GO WITH 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE BRISK WINDS OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD PRODUCE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE.  WITH 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME MUCH HIGHER TOTALS THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS
SOME TRAINING ECHOES COULD SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ABOVE FL035 SO FAR BUT STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
FL025 OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  ON SAT SOME CEILINGS FL025-035
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT MOST OF THE SITES BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SPREAD STEADILY NORTHWARD.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON SAT...25-30 KNOTS...
SO EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
EAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS ARE INDICATED ON SAT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO
6-9 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  A LOT OF CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO OCCUR
AND EVEN GUSTIER WINDS INDICATED NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO THE
WEATHER LOOKS BAD TOO.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN





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