Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 261859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO BE
THE MORE DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT AS ACTIVE AS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER IT HAS QUICKLY PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN BEFORE
WHICH HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE ALONG US1 IN BREVARD AND TO I95/FL
TURNPIKE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH MORE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE COLLISION OCCURS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WITHIN
ANY STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

GIVEN THE SPEED OF ACTIVITY MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH OVER THE ORLANDO METRO WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

SUN-MON...MID LEVEL EAST COAST TROUGH OF RECENT DAYS BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND ELONGATES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. PREVAILING FLOW STILL
OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ONLY ALONG BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN RECENT DAYS AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...NEAR 30 PERCENT SUN AND DRIEST DAY
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MON WITH POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30
PERCENT IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL
DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO SPREADING
TO THE COAST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAXS IN MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 90S
COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-FRI...EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN
AMPLITUDE... DIGGING TO NEAR 25 DEGREE LATITUDE. AXIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR/WEST OF STATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN TRANSLATE TO
JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD
REACH NORTHERN PENINSULA TUE WITH MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE
LEADING TO AN UPWARD TREND OF POPS. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE RIBBON EXPECTED TO REACH CWA WED...THEN DROP FARTHER
SOUTH THU/FRI AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO BUY FAR SOUTHWARD PUSH AND ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SET UP OF SUCH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT ONE-TWO DAYS OF VERY LOW
COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS A BIT...AND MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE COMMITTING TO SUCH
DRYING. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MID WEEK...THEN CLOSE TO
CLIMO LATE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCAT TSRA MOVING EAST ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NOW
PUSHING THROUGH I-4 CORRIDOR. COLLISION WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM KTIX SOUTH BETWEEN 20Z-23Z WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ALONG
COASTAL SITES THROUGH 27/01Z. COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
BEHIND MAIN WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR AFTER 27/01Z. COVERAGE OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON SUN WITH PREVAILING WEST-SW FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING S-SE IN THE AFTERNOONS
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH
UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

MON-WED...W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BACKING TO S/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE
COAST MON AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW TUE/WED MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION
WITH WINDS REMAINING PREVAILING W-SW. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

LIMITED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ON MONDAY...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUES/WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  77  94 /  30  30  20  20
MCO  75  96  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MLB  76  94  75  94 /  40  30  20  20
VRB  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  77  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  77  96  78  95 /  20  30  20  20
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH






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