Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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193
FXUS62 KMLB 190209 AAA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The sea breeze circulation that developed this afternoon has already
diminished and a synoptic S/SW flow will develop overnight as ridge
pulls away from the area. Skies will be (or become) mostly clear
with little chance for fog as SW flow above the boundary layer
increases. Actually, the best chance for some light fog may be along
the Treasure coast closer to the retreating ridge axis. Temperatures
should be a bit milder than previous nights with the coolest temps
in the upper 50s found over the south interior (Okeechobee/south
Osceola/interior St Lucie).

Sunday...(modified) A fast moving cold front will reach the
northernmost CWA around noon-1PM, with what will likely be a narrow
and weakening band of showers along and immediately behind it.
Boundary is progged to lie roughly from Sebastian Inlet to Basinger
by 7 PM. Best shower chances (30-40 PoPs) will be across the north-
central CWA during mid day. Maxes will range from near 75F across
the north to the lower 80s south of Orlando.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. Increasing SW flow at 925mb should limit fog development
so only have MVFR VSBYs at LEE around sunrise. W/SW flow Sunday
morning ahead of cold front then a northerly wind shift behind the
front will likely reach LEE-DAB-SFB 18Z-20Z, then shortly thereafter
at MCO/TIX by 21Z and MLB/VRB by 23-24Z. A band of SHRA should
accompany the front.

&&

.MARINE...
No significant changes to current coastal waters forecast.
Tonight-Sunday (previous)...Light southerly flow will become SW-WSW
late tonight, with the FROPA and attendant northerly wind shift
reaching the northern and central Marine legs during the afternoon.
Wave model guidance continues to run a bit high compared to buoy
obs, especially the NWPS. Used a slight reduction of the WNAWAVE
which yielded seas around 3FT through early Sunday morning,
increasing to 3-4FT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  75  50  71 /   0  40   0   0
MCO  61  78  51  73 /   0  30   0   0
MLB  62  80  57  74 /   0  30  10   0
VRB  61  81  61  74 /   0  20  20  10
LEE  62  75  48  73 /   0  40   0   0
SFB  61  77  51  73 /   0  40   0   0
ORL  61  77  52  72 /   0  40   0   0
FPR  60  80  60  75 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Bragaw



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