Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 060739
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LINGERING DEBRIS RAIN COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE SRN CWA.
WEAK MCV NOTED NEAR LAKE OKEE DRIFTING NEW...ALSO SHOWS UP ON 13KM
RUC ANLYS AND PROGS. CI/CS DEBRIS CANOPY ALSO THINNING...MORESO
ACROSS THE NORTH.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
WITH WEAKENING SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER FL...OWING TO RESIDUAL
TROUGHING OVER THE SERN CONUS WHICH WILL WEAKEN/LIFT NE TODAY. MID
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVHD TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION...POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40 SRN TREASURE COAST
TO 40-50 BREVARD/VOLUSIA...AND 50-60 OVER THE INTERIOR. MAX TEMPS
89=91 COAST AND 92-95 INLAND...MINS 72-75F AREAWIDE.

TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON TUE WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH ON WED. LIGHT S/SSW MORNING WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO SE/ESE EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.90-2.00 INCHES ON TUE WITH DRIER AIR FORECAST TO
INFILTRATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WED AFTERNOON WITH VALUES FORECAST
NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 1.50 INCHES
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE COAST
ON TUE WITH 50 POPS INTERIOR. FOR WED...20-30 PERCENT EAST COAST AND
AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW RATHER LIGHT SRLY
ON TUE...THEN SERLY/ERLY ON WED. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE INLAND.

THU-SUN...THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME. AT THE SURFACE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTH
PENINSULA ON THU WILL GET NUDGED FURTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ERLY STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS FORECAST
EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING FOCUS FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA. AS A RESULT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL PCPN
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF CLIMO FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...DAB-TIX-SUA CORRIDOR: BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO TS 16-19Z
FOR VRB-SUA...17Z-20Z MLB-TIX AND 18Z-21Z INVOF DAB. LATER ONSET FOR
INTERIOR AERODROMES WITH HIGHEST PROBS 20Z-24Z. LINGERING DEBRIS RA
AND A FEW TS RUMBLES POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THESE WINDOWS.

&&

.MARINE...MON-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
TODAY/TUE...THEN LIFTS INTO NORTH FLORIDA WED-FRI. A FEW STORMS MAY
MOVE OFF OF THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD MON/TUE. STEERING FLOW
THEN BACKS TO EASTERLY WED-FRI BRINGING DECREASED STORM CHANCES TO
THE CTRL FL MAOR. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND ADVANCE INLAND
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  91  73 /  50  30  40  20
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  90  73  89  75 /  50  30  40  20
VRB  90  73  90  73 /  40  30  40  20
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  50  20
SFB  94  74  93  74 /  60  30  50  20
ORL  94  75  93  74 /  60  30  50  20
FPR  89  74  90  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK


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