Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 282013
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...THE MOST INTENSE CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
INTO PBC LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT DEBRIS RAIN AND
SHOWERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE/TREASURE COAST REGION.
TO THE NORTH...A LARGE SWATH OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE CELLS (EVEN A COUPLE STRAY LTG STRIKES) COVERS THE CWW
FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COS NORTHWARD. BECAUSE OF ALL THE PRECIP
WINDS NEVER GOT QUITE AS BREEZY AS FCST...ALTHOUGH LOWER TEMPS SEEM
TO HAVE PANNED OUT PRETTY WELL.

THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CWA TO GRADUALLY RAIN ITSELF OUT THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS COUPLED WITH LIGHT-MODERATE E-ESE FLOW WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESP ALONG THE ATLC COAST. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING NWD
UPON THE CWA...THINK WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT MIST AND FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS. LIKE LAST NIGHT...
MINS WON`T FALL OFF ALL THAT MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L-M60S NORTH/INLAND THE THE U60S/L70S
ACROSS THE SRN AND SE COASTAL CWA.

SUN...A WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLC PRODUCES LIGHT SE WINDS...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLD STORM. MAXES IN THE U70S NORTH AND IMMEDIATE COAST WITH L80S
INLAND...AND SOME L-M70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA COASTLINE...
OWING TO SHELF WATER TEMPS IN THE U50S-L60S.

MONDAY...INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST WEAKENS/MERGES WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL EXIST BUT WITH MOS POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. NO REAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST TO LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TUE-THU...ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC EARLY TUE
ALLOWING FLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500 MB MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS S
FL WITH SUMMER LIKE 588 DM HEIGHTS REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TUE AND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SEE
EVEN WARMER READINGS WEDNESDAY AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
80S OVER THE INTERIOR. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THU AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THU NIGHT-SAT...00Z GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE NEXT FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
QUICK TRANSITION TO NE FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY NE WINDS AND ONSHORE MOVING ATLC SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FOR LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE OPTED TO FOLLOW MAV GUIDANCE IN SHOWING
MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ONSET TIME MAY
BE A FEW HRS SLOWER THAN INDICATED...HOWEVER WITH PREVAILING LOWER
END MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CIGS NEAR BKN007-009 ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DON`T THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH TIME FOR
CIGS TO LOWER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUN...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE GRIDS...
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW WEAKENING THE TIGHT LCL PGRAD
FASTER THAN PREV ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF THIS TREND...COMBINED SEA
HGTS ARE NOW SHOWN TO DECAY MORE QUICKLY THAT WHAT THE WNAWAVE MODEL
CONTINUES TO INDICATE. THIS WINDS UP SHORTENING BOTH THE NEAR SHORE
AND OFFSHORE SCA BY ABOUT 12HRS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7-10FT THROUGH
TONIGHT...DROPPING OFF TO 5-8FT BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON-THU...WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE AROUND 5-10 KTS MON BEHIND A WEAK
FRONT AND THEN VEER ONSHORE TUE INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY THE AFT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE S/SE INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5 FT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT/WED AS WINDS BECOME MORE BREEZY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  75  59  74 /  50  40  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  82 /  40  40  20  10
MLB  68  78  64  78 /  40  40  10  10
VRB  69  80  64  81 /  40  40  10  10
LEE  60  79  62  80 /  50  40  20  10
SFB  62  80  61  79 /  50  40  10  10
ORL  63  81  63  80 /  50  40  20  10
FPR  68  80  64  81 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
METWATCH...WEITLICH/MOSES/GLITTO
PUBLIC SVC...GLITTO



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