Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 021913
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...915MHZ CAPE WIND PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW A
LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND PROFILE WITH WIND SPEEDS 5 KTS OR LESS. THE 15Z
KXMR SOUNDING PROFILE STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +9.7C/-6.6C) WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES...DOWN FROM 1.93 ON THE EARLIER MORNING
SOUNDING.

DRIER/WARM AIR ALOFT ONCE AGAIN WILL STAGGER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FROM NEAR LAKE GEORGE SOUTH THROUGH
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST
ELSEWHERE THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. GREATEST CHANCES
WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS MOST BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BURN OUT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE M70S WITH SWRLY WINDS LIGHT.

THU-FRI...THE WEAK ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND IS PRESENTLY FORECAST
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA COAST AND WILL LIE OFF OF THE
CENTRAL FL COAST BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL VEER OUR LIGHT SW
SURFACE WINDS TO THE N/NE BY LATE FRI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN NEAR 2.00 INCHES WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
AROUND -6C/-7C. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION EACH DAY. THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY. STORM MOTION ON THU WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10
KTS AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS FOR FRI WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE
EASTERN PENINSULA LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
TO 60 PERCENT POPS EACH DAY.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SAT-WED...GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE SHOWN DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADVERTISED BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE US AND NO SIGN OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF FL. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WL LEAD TO
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. LIGHT TO MODEST STEERING
LEVEL WLYS ARE INDICATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WL NATURALLY FAVOR
THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF ONGOING
STORMS INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SSW/SW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AT
THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND SLOW MARCH INLAND. ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. STORM STEERING FLOW RATHER WEAK AND
SWRLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH SW WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...WEAK ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE S/C
FL PENINSULA. SEAS AOB 2 FT. E/SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE AND S/SE ELSEWHERE BECOMING SWRLY AGAIN AFT MIDNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. FEW OFFSHORE MOVING SHRA/TSRA THRU THIS
EVENING...BUT REMAINING VERY ISOLD.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING
ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE...BCMG E/SE NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTNS AS THE SEABREEZE DVLPS. SEAS AOB 2FT.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG VRBL FRIDAY AS THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO
N/CENTRAL FL. VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WITH ACCOMPANYING SEAS
AOB 3FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INTERRUPTED BY LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS NEAR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A REPEAT OF RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP COVERAGE WILL ALLOW
FURTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LCL GROUND TO DRY OUT. AVG LATE SUMMER/EARLY
FALL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE STORMS DRIVEN BY SEA AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER...WHILE SOME DRYING HAS
OCCURRED...OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH LIMITED
ADDITIONAL HOLDING CAPACITY. AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP GENERATED BY AFTN STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  89 /  20  50  40  50
MCO  75  92  76  92 /  20  60  30  60
MLB  75  92  75  91 /  10  50  40  60
VRB  74  92  74  90 /  10  40  40  60
LEE  76  91  76  91 /  20  50  30  50
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  20  60  30  60
ORL  77  92  77  92 /  20  60  30  60
FPR  73  92  74  91 /  10  40  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER



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