Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS62 KMLB 221847
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
247 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday...East and west coast sea breeze boundaries
were moving slowly inland at this hour and the features have
served as the main development area for some early showers.
Further development of showers and storms will occur into the
evening with the main chance of locally stronger storms around
the time of breeze collision late this afternoon. The I-4
corridor including Volusia and eventually Brevard county remain in
an area expecting to see at least scattered storms into this
evening.

During Tue, the combination of destabilized upr level, suitable
moisture and sfc boundaries will produce a round of sct storms in
the afternoon, with North and inland locations most likely for
coverage over the Eastern peninsula. Lingering cloud cover may
delay instability and speed of warmup to produce optimal diurnal
pcpn and coverage has been capped attm to no higher than 40
percent beginning around mid day and continuing through the
afternoon.

Tue Night-Thu Night...A vigorous upper trough over the central CONUS
will deepen and move southeastward toward the Deep South thru Wed-
Wed night, then across the FL peninsula on Thu advancing
northeastward up the eastern seaboard overnight. This will push a
surface cool front into the FL Panhandle early on Wed with this
boundary pressing slowly southward into north-central FL late
overnight on Wed and across ECFL late Thu morning/afternoon. PWAT
values will flirt with 1.60-1.90 inches during this time ahead of
the front. The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the front
with breezy/gusty SWRLY winds on Wed/Thu across much of the area.

For precip, lingering convective activity will generally wind down
Tue evening, but cannot rule out at least a SChc overnight. Late
overnight Tue and towards Wed morning there is a potential for
additional showers/storms north of I-4 potentially from an
approaching late night squall line from the north. Medium range
models show this area of pcpn sagging southward during the day on
Wed, perhaps initially on a weakening trend. During the
afternoon/early evening there may develop another squall line north
of the area (ahead of the surface front) that will push thru ECFL
during the evening/overnight Wed into Thu morning. Wishful
thinking/hoping suggests up to 1-2 inches areawide with locally some
higher amounts across the area on Wed into Thu before everything is
said and done. The SPC has all of ECFL in a Slight Risk for Severe
Storms for Wed morning-Thu morning. Threats will include locally
heavy downpours, small hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
straight-line winds. An isolated tornado or two will also be in play.

Conditions will begin to dry over the area (from north to south) Thu
afternoon into Thu evening. Lows generally mild ranging from the
U60s to L70s, except a brief cooler period Thu overnight with values
generally in the 60s areawide. Highs mainly in the 80s, but may see
some L90s southward with thinner cloud cover here initially on Wed.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Fri-Memorial Day Weekend...Trough aloft will lift out Fri and
abandon the frontal boundary, which oozes into south Florida and
washes out. High pressure ridge will build from the Gulf of Mexico
across the area Fri and extend into the Atlantic through Memorial
Day.

Drying looks sufficient for no POPs on Fri except maybe close to
Lake Okeechobee. Moisture return looks limited through the Memorial
Day Weekend, so any boundary driven showers/storms during the
afternoon will have low coverage and favor interior sections.

Outlook for the beaches on the upcoming Holiday Weekend:

The axis of a high pressure ridge is forecast to extend from the
Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula into the Atlantic.
This will provide rather light winds and there are no sources of
long period swell indicated. While rip currents can still occur,
they shouldn`t be nearly as active as the last 2 Memorial Day
Weekends (3 fatalities in 2016 and 4 in 2015). The chance for
afternoon lightning storms looks low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local showers and storms occurring along boundaries will focus
toward the central and coastal areas through this evening. Tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any showers and storms that
develop. A little less coverage of showers and storms on Tuesday
afternoon, however some tempo reductions to cloud and vsby wl
occur in affected locations areawide.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Tue...Gradient winds wl increase up to 15-20 knots
offshore of Volusia/Brevard counties tonight, increasing seas up
to 4 feet.

Tuesday...Low pressure moving along stalled out front to the
north on Tue will increase southwest winds with speeds up to 15-20
knots well offshore. Winds/seas will be higher briefly near
showers and storms moving offshore.

Tue Night-Sat...A slow-moving late season cool front will move from
the Gulf Coast States into ECFL on Thu, then wash out across the
southern FL peninsula on Fri. SWRLY winds will veer west thru the
day on Thu, then NW Thu night with onshore flow returning again Fri
afternoon and Sat. There will be a period of wind speeds 15-20 kts
Tue evening offshore, then winds will increase Wed night-Thu to 20-
25 kts and gusty. The pressure gradient decreases fairly rapidly
behind the front with improving boating conditions Fri-Sat as high
pressure settles into the area.

Seas generally 3-5 ft building to 6-8 ft well offshore late
overnight Wed-Thu, then subsiding to AOB 3 ft areawide on Fri-Sat.

Expect a few periods of scattered-numerous showers/scattered storms
Wed-Thu ahead of the front. The convection will be fast-moving off
of the east coast Wed-Thu. Some strong storms will occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  72  86 /  50  40  50  80
MCO  71  90  72  87 /  50  40  20  80
MLB  72  91  73  90 /  40  30  20  70
VRB  71  93  75  91 /  20  30  30  60
LEE  73  87  75  84 /  30  40  40  80
SFB  72  91  73  85 /  50  40  30  80
ORL  72  89  74  86 /  50  40  30  80
FPR  70  92  72  92 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Smith



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.