Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 231946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
146 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather system will continue to produce some
fair weather cumulus clouds and brief showers along the
Continental Divide and in Glacier National Park this afternoon
into the evening hours. But after that we`re looking at a gorgeous
weekend with abundant sunshine, afternoon breeziness and
temperature quickly rising above normal. Many valley locations in
throughout the Northern Rockies will be pushing into the upper
80s by Sunday with a few eclipsing 90!

The pattern begins to change on Monday as the ridge of high
pressure responsible for the quick warm up begins to shift east.
At the same time sub-tropical moisture presently over Mexico will
have been working its way northward over coastal California and
around the high pressure dome to ultimately be over Idaho and
Montana by late Monday afternoon. This additional moisture when
combined with the intense heating forecast for Monday will alone
kick off some late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
throughout much of the Northern Rockies Region. However there is
also the potential a few storms could become quite strong should
the global models be correct in their analysis of a weak mid-level
disturbance that is expected to pass overhead at the same time.
Regardless, we have increased the chances for precipitation Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning to identify when we think the best
chances for convection will occur.

Thereafter the upper level flow becomes more west to
northwesterly which would support normal temperatures for the rest
of next week. There will be a chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms just about each day with afternoon/early evening
winds frequently gusting above 20 mph. A more focused disturbance
may bring about better chances for showers late in the week. But
forecast confidence this far out remains low./IV


.AVIATION...Aside from some fair weather cumulus clouds and brief
showers along the Continental Divide this afternoon, the weather
conditions throughout the Northern Rockies will be quite nice for
aviating over the next 24 hours.



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