Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231728
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level shortwave disturbance is working its way through the
northwest flow over the region this morning, and helped cloud
cover/shower development. Current satellite shows cloud cover
extending from the northwest portions of the mid state up through
the Midwest. Weaker radar echoes are over areas north of I-40 and
west of I-65 currently, and so far showers have not reached the
surface per obs sites in the area. Cloud base is around 10kft, so
most of the showers will go towards saturating the low levels
initially before possibly seeing light showers this morning and
into the afternoon.

Have chc and schc pops in for northern areas into the early
afternoon, with some isolated thunder possible. Heavier showers in
KY have shown lightning activity, so should stronger showers
develop further south over the mid state, some thunder will be
possible. Short term model consensus has the upper level
disturbance weakening along with shower potential by mid
afternoon.

Surface pressure gradient looks to tighten up a bit during the day
and overnight hours, so upped winds slightly this afternoon and
into tomorrow morning. Tweaked temperatures slightly as well to
reflect cooler temps around the cloud cover/showers and warmer
temps where partly cloudy skies are holding this morning. Upstream
temperatures are still in the low 40s, so hopefully low level
mixing will still increase temps this afternoon as winds pick up.
Otherwise rest of the forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Shortwave continues to pull mid and upper level clouds into the
region. Radar returns being seen are likely only sprinkles at the
surface, so not expecting any vis reduction. VFR clouds will
persist for most of this TAF cycle, however, with MVFR cigs
possibly making a return for the morning hours on Friday.

Mainly southerly winds will be breezy this afternoon right
through the end of the cycle.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger


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