Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 282249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
549 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Well all eyes are absolutely 100% glued to the radars located in
Hopkinsville and Nashville as forecasters and weather watchers
alike squint to see if that "little blip" will turn into
something...or anything. But alas, the waiting game continues
which makes this forecaster very happy. The longer these storms
wait to develop, the better off we are here in Middle Tennessee.
In taking a look at the 19Z special weather balloon launch here at
NWS Nashville, that`s a mighty strong warm capping layer we`ll
need to break, and I`m not sure we have enough "umph" to make that
happen for MOST of Middle Tennessee. There`s still concern about
the far Northwest and northern portions of the forecast area, but
so far so good. IF (and a BIG IF) these storms can get going,
we`ll be dealing with all severe weather modes as there is quite a
bit of dry air aloft favoring downbursts and large hail as well
as enough wind shear to favor possible tornadoes. But for now, we
praise the cap but continue to watch.
Barring any significant changes in the next 3-4 hours, the bulk of
the thunderstorms will remain north of Tennessee giving way to a
very warm and humid night. Southerly winds will continue through
the overnight hours into Saturday as temperatures reach close to
the 90 degree mark with likely the most humid day we`ve seen all
spring. Without any substantial forcing or lift around, think
almost all of the area will remain dry Saturday afternoon and
evening so have removed mention of thunderstorms at this time.
As we look towards Sunday, the final round of strong to severe
weather will impact Middle Tennessee late Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night. Current thoughts are that this line will be
weakening with severe weather likely only threatening areas west
of Interstate 65 (main threat being damaging winds). However,
we`re all going to share in the receiving of heavy rainfall as 1-3
inches, with locally higher amounts possible over the western
half of the area, can be expected. So in a nutshell, heavy rain
is the biggest threat late Sunday with a damaging wind threat
sticking around too...but mainly west.
Monday through Thursday...only took a quick look at this time
frame, but to be honest, didn`t really see anything that caught my
eye other than "Is this really almost May weather?". What a
difference a week makes as we look to be stuck in a cool, cloudy,
and even rainy pattern by mid to late week. Regardless, it`s nice
to actually say temperatures will be close to normal with no
severe weather expected for next week.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
We will keep some decent low level moisture through the forecast
period. However, our atmosphere above 850mb will remain pretty
dry, along with at some modest capping between 850mb and 700mb.
As a result, believe our chance for showers and thunderstorms will
remain relatively low through the forecast period. There could
still be some isolated showers or thunderstorms around CKV this
evening, but dry conditions are currently expected for Saturday.
South surface winds will become less gusty overnight, but gain
their gusto once again on Saturday due to diurnal mixing. Expect
wind gusts to be around 20 kts by Saturday afternoon.