Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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278
FXUS64 KOHX 011204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FLOATING AROUND THE MID-STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY EAST OF I-65 AND NORTH OF I-40...BUT
MOST EVERYONE IS QUIET.  THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF MIDDLE TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN QUIET
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE AREN`T DONE WITH THE
RAIN BY ANY STRETCH.  ALL OF THE MID-STATE REMAINS MIRED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING...BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR MANY TODAY AND INCREASING SHEAR VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...IF WE CAN GET INITIATION...THERE DEFINITELY COULD BE A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.  WITH THE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  COVERAGE WON`T BE VERY
HIGH...PROBABLY IN THE 50 PERCENT NEIGHBORHOOD...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TIMING IS EVERYTHING IN LIFE...ISN`T IT?  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK SOUTH OF THE MID-STATE. UNFORTUNATELY...
THERE IS ACROSS-THE-BOARD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WON`T BE THE CASE
MONDAY.  AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
STATE LATE TONIGHT...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE THE REGION.  THE PROBLEM IS...WITHOUT A
LARGE SCALE PUSH...THE COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS THE MID-STATE ON MONDAY.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.  WHILE DYNAMICS AREN`T BAD...INCLUDING SOME WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...THE MISSING PART WILL BE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MID-STATE.  FOR THIS REASON...I THINK
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND EVERYBODY CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS SYSTEM FINALLY GETS THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THESE COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE
GOING TO THE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE IN A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WORKWEEK.  WHILE EACH WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL...IF NOT EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST OF THESE DAYS AS THE MOST INTENSE OF
THESE SHORTWAVES COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  MANY MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 DEGREES AND FRIDAY MORNING MIGHT EVEN WELCOME 40S BACK
INTO THE MID-STATE.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS WE
GET PINCHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE CLOSED LOWS...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THE OTHER NEAR THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...A WEAK, SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH FROPA NOT OCCURRING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, THE DAY IS STARTING OFF WITH FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IN A FEW PLACES, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE,
LEAVING US VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ERODED POP`S CONSIDERABLY. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................UNGER



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