


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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226 FXUS64 KOHX 151002 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 502 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the week. - Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible. - Warming trend will take place this week as many locations will near or surpass 100F for heat indicies. && .UPDATE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Today we aren`t under any severe storm risk, just general thunderstorms only from the SPC. Storm chances have decreased today, but aren`t entirely eradicated; we can still expect isolated to scattered convection during peak-heating hours, but less coverage than we`ve experienced on previous afternoons. A surface boundary sits just to our north, so there are slightly higher PoPs across northern Middle Tennessee than in areas farther south. Otherwise, the surface ridge that was situated to our east appears to have retrograded somewhat, so there is a little more subsidence across the mid state today, despite the continued presence of at least modest levels of instability and plenty of available moisture. Afternoon heat index values are likely to top out in the low 100s in most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. PoPs will increase again tomorrow as the surface ridge gets pushed out of the way. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A summer like pattern has been set up over Middle TN and it looks to stick around for awhile. We have weak zonal flow over the northern US and this will keep much of the same weather for our area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight especially for areas that saw rainfall today. Then we will once again see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and continue into the early evening. CAMs are showing activity a little less widespread tomorrow with the better chances staying to our north but still plan on hit and miss storms in the afternoon. It will be a high CAPE low shear environment. The threat for severe storms will be low but can`t rule out gusty winds with any of the stronger updrafts. PWATs will remain high in the 1.60-2.0" range. Given the slow storm motion and high PWATs localized flash flooding will be possible with any of the strong longer lasting cells. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s, this will push afternoon heat index values to around or just above 100. Mainly dry conditions Tuesday night with lows once again in the low to mid 70s. Not a lot of change in the forecast for Wednesday. We will once again see scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Similar to Tuesday the severe threat will be low but heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds with any of the stronger cells. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 As we head into the extended part of the forecast we will see very little change. Summer like conditions remain in place. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend and next week. Weak troughing will develop over eastern Canada over the weekend and that will help to bring some lower heights and maybe knock a few degrees off of our highs, instead of low to mid 90s we will see upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Patchy fog will be possible through 13z and will bring MVFR/IFR conditions at times mainly for KCKV and KMQY. The fog could be more dense over the Plateau and periods of IFR conditions will be possible. BNA may see a brief period of MVFR conditions due to fog between 10 and 12z. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible after 17z, with them being hit and miss the chance of a storm hitting the terminal is under 30% and it was left out of the TAF. Light winds tonight becoming southwesterly tomorrow afternoon up to 6 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 75 95 76 / 30 20 40 20 Clarksville 91 74 92 76 / 40 20 40 10 Crossville 89 69 89 70 / 30 10 50 30 Columbia 93 72 93 74 / 20 10 30 20 Cookeville 89 72 91 72 / 30 10 50 20 Jamestown 89 70 90 71 / 40 20 60 30 Lawrenceburg 92 72 93 73 / 20 10 40 20 Murfreesboro 94 73 95 74 / 30 10 40 20 Waverly 91 73 92 74 / 30 20 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Mueller