Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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064
FXUS64 KOHX 210908
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
408 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

There is more cirrus clouds this morning thus limiting the fog and
low clouds. A few more clouds expected today than the previous
few days. Still expect high temperatures to be in the 74 to 80
degree range. Maybe not quite as warm as the MAV /which is
forecasting 82 for BNA/ but I am sure a few backyard thermometers
will reach into the lower 80s.

The NAM is still trying to slow the approaching cold front. Did
make a few tweaks to the forecast...but for the most part not too
many. Expect Sunday to be another nice day with increasing clouds
west to east and highs in the lower 70s along the plateau to
around 81 in Nashville. Chance pops more towards the afternoon
hours for locations west of 65...with the bulk of the rain
expected Sunday night and Monday. Still not very impressed with
the instability so will only have slight chance of thunder late
Sunday night and Monday. QPF amounts have also trended upward a
bit. Over a 36 hour period from Sunday morning through 00Z
Wednesday expecting near 2 inches for the northeast to near 3
inches along the TN/AL state line. WPC has portions of our area in
the slight category for excessive rainfall on day two and three.
So will mention some locally heavy rainfall in the HWO.

As mentioned for the last few days the EURO was the slowest model
for ending precip...and it looks like the GFS has joined. Expect
pops to end west to east on Tuesday with some lingering slight
chance for the plateau. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in
the lower to mid 50s with some wind gusts in the lower teens.
Morning lows on Thursday will be 35 to 40. If skies clear up as
forecasted there could be some widespread frost and maybe even a
light freeze in sheltered locations along the plateau. This is
something worth keeping an eye on for tender vegetation.

Slight warmup for Thursday and Friday...with rain coming in again
for next weekend. The instability is kind of weak so have lowered
thunder to slight chance. More cold air expected after this.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Cirrus clouds are spreading across Middle
Tennessee this evening as high pressure continues to slide off to
the east. Dew point spreads are a little larger than 24 hrs. ago,
and none of the models are hinting at fog, but am still including
MVFR fog at MQY overnight and leaving the remainder of our
terminals VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  59  81  64  70 /   0   0  10  70  90
Clarksville    79  60  78  61  68 /   0  10  30  70  80
Crossville     74  53  73  60  67 /   0   0   0  40  90
Columbia       79  58  79  62  68 /   0   0  20  80  90
Lawrenceburg   79  58  78  63  68 /   0   0   0  80  90
Waverly        79  62  77  61  68 /   0  10  40  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........08



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