Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 222327
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Deep moisture associated with an upper level low will continue to
move off to our east tonight. A good deal of low level moisture
will remain in place, along with unusually mild air for this time
of year. The result will be mainly cloudy skies overnight with
lows in the 50s. There will be some areas of fog, perhaps locally
dense on the Plateau late tonight.
Thursday will vary from partly sunny to mostly cloudy with warm
temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s.
Temperatures will probably not be record setting, but will be
about 20 degrees above normal.
For Thursday night into Friday, warm south winds will increase as
a low pressure system moves from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes. The pressure gradient will strengthen through Friday with
sustained winds from 15-25 mph, and gusts near 40 mph. Record
warmth is expected Friday. BNA`s current record for Feb 24th is 77
As the low pressure system moves to the Great Lakes Friday
evening, a trailing cold front will push eastward into the Oh/Tn
Valley Regions. SPC has slight and enhanced risk areas to our
north, with marginal risk in Tn. Cape values of 1-2k J/kg with
deep layer shear >50kt with provide favorable conditions for
severe storms by Friday evening. It would not be surprising if the
slight risk were expanded southward into our area. Forecast
soundings show a capped atmosphere through the day Friday, so not
much activity is expected ahead of the cold front. We will have
high pops in the forecast for Friday evening, with thunderstorms
focusing along a squall line. Although an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out, our main concern will be damaging wind gusts along
the line, and perhaps some minor damage with gradient winds ahead
of the front. It appears the greatest severe risk will be over our
northwest counties beginning around 6pm, with a lower threat over
our southern and Plateau counties as the line moves into more
stable air late evening and overnight. Since a fairly fast moving,
narrow band is expected, rainfall amounts will be mostly under
one half inch.
Saturday and Sunday will bring dry and more seasonable conditions.
Highs are expected to reach the 50s each day, with freezing
temperatures for Sunday morning.
Looking ahead, mild and unsettled conditions will occur early next
week as a couple of systems bring scattered showers Monday and
Tuesday. For late Tuesday into Wednesday, another approaching
front (that looks very similar to the one for this Friday) will
increase rain chances, along with the potential for
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Mainly VFR conditions for this evening, but clouds will still be
pretty thick across the mid-state. Expect for cigs to fall after
06Z to MVFR/IFR for all 3 terminals. Many models are suggesting a
vis fall, too, but with boundary layer winds expected to remain
elevated, we should be dealing mainly with a cloud deck.
Winds will be light and southerly tonight, picking up a little
during the afternoon on Thursday.