Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 040233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE
APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS
AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO
08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR
NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP


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