Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 301957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR LOWS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAINS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 1 INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND AND CT. RIGHT
NOW...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ON SAT.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC





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