Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KOKX 162337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A gusty northwest flow continues behind a cold front which has
moved well offshore. A broad area of high pressure is building
in from the west and will remain in control through next


Made adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and winds to
reflect latest obs and trends.

Clouds continue moving eastward and will clear the area tonight.
Winds will slowly diminish into the overnight, therefore the
Frost Advisory will remain in effect for early Tuesday morning.


Gusts will return for a few hours in the late morning and early
afternoon. As ridging builds in from the south, winds will
subside for the remainder of Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s once

Dry and seasonably cool for Tuesday night with the chance of
some patchy frost across far interior zones once again.
Confidence is marginal, so later shifts will have to evaluate
whether a Frost Advisory will be needed for late Tuesday night.


Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of
the period. Initially, a short wave trough over central Canada
and the northern plains translates east during the mid week
period, riding over top a broad, flat ridge over the southern
half of the country. This feature sends a dry cold frontal
passage through the region Thursday night. Thereafter, the upper
air pattern becomes amplified with a trough moving into the
western U.S., with heights building across the east. While
amplified, the flow is still fairly progressive with the trough
approaching the east early next week. The associated cold front
approaches Monday into next Tuesday.

Throughout the period, expect abundant sunshine and above
normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be around 70, with lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.


High pressure builds to the west tonight, then drifts south
into the mid Atlantic states during Tuesday.


A NW to N flow continues tonight around 10 kt early this
evening then diminishing to under 10 kt. Winds back to W then SW
during Tuesday.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.Tuesday night-Friday...VFR.


The highest confidence in SCA wind gusts are for this evening
into the first part of the overnight as a secondary cold front
swings through. Therefore Small Craft Advisories continue
overnight for the ocean waters, and then fall below SCA levels
early Tuesday morning for the near shore waters.

Winds and seas are expected to fall below SCA levels Tue morning
for the western ocean waters. A SCA will remain in effect due
to wind gusts for the eastern ocean waters, but only through
the late morning. Otherwise seas will remain below criteria for
Tue afternoon through the mid week under the control of high

High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA
conditions. Marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday into
Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold
front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.


No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend.


CT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.