Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE
SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY
POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE
LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS
IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON
HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF
DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2
METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR
NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE
OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY
ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE
ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW
PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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