Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 290059
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
859 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in
dry weather for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Storms with heavy rainfall are continuing in eastern
Fayette/Westmoreland Counties, as well as along a persistent
outflow boundary from earlier convection moving across the central
portion of the county warning area. Have extended PoPs a little
longer into the evening, but still expect most activity to die
down by midnight with the loss of heating. Minor changes to rest
of forecast.

Previous discussion for tomorrow...

Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing
shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday
afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the
trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather
for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average
around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for
dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are
coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated
cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and
have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more
progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday,
while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in
Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend
toward the seasonal average by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most ports through the operational TAF
period as a ridge of high pressure remains in place. A few
lingering showers this evening will dwindle with the setting sun.
Light surface flow and no change in air mass will mean similar
conditions overnight as 24 hours ago. Not expecting fog to
develop...save for the few locations where rain managed to fall
over the airfield...KLBE and KFKL. Have mentioned MVFR visibility
restrictions for these two locations.

Thunderstorm coverage should increase Sunday afternoon with a
passing shortwave trough...so carrying VCTS in most TAFs.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front
will approach the region late Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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