Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020103
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
903 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUED MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF REGION
WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRAVERSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH MOST MODELS BUYING INTO THIS THINKING. HAVE
SUPPRESSED POPS AS A RESULT BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE VALUES ACROSS
MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AT MGW...AS OPPOSED TO
NEARLY ZERO AT FKL. HAVE REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL AND HAVE
REMOVED IT NORTH OF I-80.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL WANE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE. ON SATURDAY CHANCE POPS MAINLY
SOUHT AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE UNDER WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BL TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH
FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VSBYS AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.