Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 190515 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1215 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today.
Drier weather is expected tonight and through much of Wednesday,
as is very warm temperatures.


Only minor changes to the overnight period. Have increased cloud
cover and slowed the onset of PoPs by a couple of hours.
Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance.

Light rain will slowly overspread the region this morning as
a warm front swings northward through the area. Better upper
support from low-level convergence and right entrance region
jet dynamics will reside across the northern counties today, and
this portion of the CWA will be the focus of higher PoPs. The
advancing warm sector will allow rain to taper off from south to
north this afternoon, with chance PoPs remaining across the far
north by evening.


The remainder of the forecast remains mostly dry along the
western edge of a ridge centered around a 500mb high off the
southeast U.S. coast. Have some minimal PoPs across the north
from time to time as the boundary wavers, but most, if not all,
of the area should get a period of dry weather tonight, through
a portion of Wednesday.

Another big story will be the warming temperatures, which will
push much above normal values underneath the ridge. Values
above 70 degrees are likely for many on Tuesday and for a large
portion of the area on Wednesday as well.


There are still some timing differences regarding the timing of
the next cold front, but a passage in the late Wednesday/early
Thursday period still is expected. This will bring the next
chance of rain as well as cooler temperatures, but above-normal
warmth will remain. The end of the forecast remains problematic,
as several shortwaves may track across the area from Friday
into the weekend.


VFR conditions are forecast until well into the early morning
hours. A warm front will spread showers south to north,
dropping ceilings to low MVFR or IFR for a period this morning
and into the early afternoon. Improvement to VFR is then
expected through the remainder of the day, save for FKL/DUJ
where low moisture looks to hold.

Despite strong southerly flow, LLWS is expected through the
entire forecast period.

The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.




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