Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 242245
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
345 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...tonight through Friday...weak cyclonic flow will be
over the region through Friday transitioning to a strong upper low
passing just north of the forecast area Thursday night and Friday.
For this evening there will be a few showers over the eastern
mountains with a very slight chance of a thunderstorm over Wallowa
County. On Wednesday the short term models depict a bit more
instability over the eastern mountains so have maintained a slight
Chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Winds will
pick up in the Kittitas Valley and Columbia Gorge during the
afternoon and evening and could push advisory levels. High
temperatures Wednesday will be mostly in the 70s lower elevations
with 60s in the mountains. On Thursday expect mostly dry and
slightly cooler conditions but there will be some wind impacts.
Winds in the Columbia Gorge and Kittitas Valley could reach advisory
levels. For Friday the upper low will be passing to the north. The
trajectory of the low does not lend itself to much airmass
destabilization or moistening of the airmass. Thus just expect a few
mountain showers and continued breezy/windy conditions in the
Cascade gaps. 78

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday. Previous forecast
discussions focused on the cool and unsettled weather for the first
half of the Memorial holiday weekend, but latest runs are showing
less amplitude of the upper level trough and more of a westerly flow
aloft than a cyclonic flow over WA/OR. Therefore, showers and
thunderstorms do not appear to be strong with heavy downpours like
what was observed last weekend. The threat of thunderstorms on
Friday evening and Saturday will be slight chance at best and mainly
from the Blue Mtns eastward. The first shortwave trough will exit
the region Friday night, and high pressure building behind the
system will result in gusty winds, especially through the Kittitas
Valley and the Eastern Columbia River Gorge. Another shortwave
trough will follow on Memorial Day with similar weather conditions.
The biggest concern for the holiday weekend will be the unseasonably
cool temperatures, mainly at night. There could also be light snow
accumulations above 5000 feet Friday evening. Wister


&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR conditions will prevail with sct-bkn
layers of stratocumulus and cumulus through Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will be less than 15 knots but NW winds 15-25 knots can be
expected at KDLS this afternoon and again after 20Z/25th.  Wister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  50  74  48  70 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  54  75  51  71 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  54  80  52  76 /  10  10  10   0
YKM  51  77  48  72 /  10  10  10   0
HRI  53  79  50  74 /  10  10  10   0
ELN  49  72  47  67 /  10  10  10  10
RDM  42  68  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  46  68  44  65 /  20  30  20  10
GCD  44  69  42  67 /  10  20  10  10
DLS  54  73  52  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

78/85/85


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