Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 222102
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
202 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. A dry high pressure system
over the e pac will continue to build into the pacnw for the next
several days. A warming trend is expected into the weekend as
temps climb into the 90s across the region and may approach the
century mark for some locations in the columbia basin by Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...Models in good
agreement in developing southerly flow over our western CWA Sunday
as the upper ridge slowly gets nudged east ahead of a weakening
system over the eastern Pacific.  Moisture will be very limited on
Sunday so expect the convection to be very isolated and mainly near
the cascades...mainly south of Sisters.  By Monday...moisture will
continue to spread northward and affect Oregon with a slight chance
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  A marine push will nudge
the instability east into Idaho Tuesday.  Models begin to diverge
significantly Tuesday afternoon as the GFS shows a rather potent low
swinging down from BC and clipping the Idaho panhandle.  The ECMWF
keeps the low well north of the area in northern BC.  At this
time...will go with the drier ECMWF solution as moisture remains
limited.  The expected zonal flow from either solution will produce
breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening behind the marine
push.  The models continue to have divergent solutions Wednesday and
Thursday.  The GFS shows unsettled weather as another upper level
low drops over the CWA Thursday.  The ECMWF continues to show
dry...northwesterly flow.  At this time...will lean towards the
drier ECMWF solution and see if the models begin to converge over
the weekend.  Daytime highs will be well above normal Monday...but
are expected to cool 10-15 degrees Tuesday and hover near normal
through the rest of the period. Earle

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. An upper level ridge will keep the region under a
dry...northwesterly flow. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts.
However...winds at KRDM and KBDN will be 10 to 15 kts with higher
gusts in the early this evening. Earle

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  47  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  53  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  50  87  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  50  88  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  49  87  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  46  86  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  40  86  44  91 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  39  80  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  42  84  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  51  91  56  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

97/81/81


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