Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 011939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG IT TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL PA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN DECREASING, SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES IN OUR
REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z (WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE). WILL SEE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. THAT, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
REGION, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LIGHT ON SHORE
FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC
POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT WITH WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z FOR THE TAF SITES.

AFTER 06Z, EXPECT WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VRB. AS THIS HAPPENS, THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY FOR KABE, KRDG, AND
KACY. BY DAYBREAK, WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN TO NORTHEASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS
POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW
JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE
RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE.

WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4
WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR)
DATES BACK TO 1894.

ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922.
10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003
9.13 2006
8.58 1972
8.30 2003
7.59 2015

ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR
1874.

PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06
IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY
AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...


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