Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 012004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
204 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE HAS RESULTED IN EVEN LOWER
CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
AIR EVEN LOOKS DRIER AND WITH THE WEAK DRY FRONT COMING
THROUGH...SOME CONCERNS OVER WILD FIRE POTENTIAL RETURNS. THE
FORECAST IS COMPLICATED MORE BY THE PRESENCE OF A DISTURBANCE OFF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER OLD MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE GFS THE LAST
TWO MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN BRINING SOME OF THIS TO IDAHO BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR THE
NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST MODEL AGREEMENT COMES WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR
PORTLAND OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BEE FAVORABLE FOR AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN BY SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND SOME CLEARING BY SUNDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. KIDA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST KPIH AND KIDA WILL HAVE AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING WINDS AROUND 10 TO
12 KTS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WILL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND RH FORECAST FAVORS
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR FIRE ZONES 475...476 AND 410. ESPECIALLY
IMPACTED WILL BE THE VALLEYS WHERE DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE FAVORED.
HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES. MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS FIRE ZONE 475/476 TOMORROW MORNING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS BRING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
IS NEEDED.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR IDZ410-475-
476.

&&

$$


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