Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 311949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS A SUB-TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ROTATE NORTH THROUGH NRN NEVADA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS. BY TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BREAKING RANKS
WITH ITS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE LOW SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH CANADA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...SLOWLY DRIVES THE
LOW SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW VERY LITTLE
CONTINUITY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THUS AM INCLINED TO MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE
ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PARTICULARLY TODAY. WYATT
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON FUEL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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