Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 230050
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
150 PM SST WED FEB 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERRITORY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS ORIENTED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA. CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOW THE MONSOON TROUGH
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WHILE THE SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST SPREADS ACROSS THE TERRITORY
AND DIMINISHES BY FRIDAY. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE NUMEROUS TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR A FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AND SHOW A
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING TREND TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM.

THE WINDS HAVE DRASTICALLY DIMINISHED. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AND CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOW THE MONSOON
TROUGH EDGING CLOSER TO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS...BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO BUILD A
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE TERRITORY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL
EFFECT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...IT MAY EVEN KEEP THE TROUGH AWAY
FROM THE TERRITORY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR MODEL
SKILL BEYOND DAY 3...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL OUTPUT
AND MAKE CHANGES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III SOLUTIONS SHOWS SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BORDERLINE SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLD FOR WINDS. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT TO CAUTION ON THE SIDE OF ERROR WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CANCELING IT THURSDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE






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