Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 220510
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
310 PM CHST SAT NOV 22 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT PASSES EAST OF THE MARIANAS ALONG 150E. AN APPROACHING
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
ZONES HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED. A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE LIES OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI. MUCH
SMALLER AND WEAKER TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST THE
BULK OF THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AND SURGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
CHUUK AND POHNPEI WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. SYSTEM REMAINS
DIFFUSE ENOUGH TO SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT IN THE
OFFING FOR GUAM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES...FOLLOW ON TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE SUPPLYING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY. TUTT WILL BE LINGERING IN THE VICINITY...SO WILL CARRY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRIER
AS TRADE-WINDS USHER IN A DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY READINGS INITIALIZE COMBINED SEAS
CLOSELY TO GRIDDED VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET. HOWEVER...ENERGY
ARRIVING AT THE BUOYS IS MORE CONCENTRATED IN NORTH SWELL VERSUS
EAST SWELL...SO BUMPED UP NORTH SWELL 2 FEET AND SHAVED A FOOT
FROM EAST SWELL TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHANGE RESULTS IN A 5-FOOT
NORTH SWELL...WHICH IS ONLY A FOOT OR SO BELOW THE HEIGHT
NECESSARY TO GENERATE HIGH SURF. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTH SWELL HAVE ALREADY PEAKED...SO DO NOT BELIEVE HIGH SURF IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST ZONES BUT
HAVE DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
JAPAN WILL BE WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS EITHER.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WIND SURGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE IS JUST NORTH OF
POHNPEI TO JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE. SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KOSRAE DID NOT MATERIALIZE WITH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE AND TO THE SOUTH OF
KOSRAE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THERE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SURGE CONTINUES TO
PUSH WESTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO POHNPEI
WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
A SECONDARY SURGE IS NOW MOVING IN TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MAJURO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF MAJURO LATE
THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
ZONE IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE MARSHALLS EARLY MONDAY AND SPREAD OVER KOSRAE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVER POHNPEI MONDAY. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER MAJURO UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
WINDS WEAKEN OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY MIDWEEK...THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS TO
SET UP OVER BOTH LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF
AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE
STATE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...SURF HEIGHTS FOR BOTH PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE STATE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LEADING EDGE OF A TRADE- WIND SURGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WENO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE OVER THE STATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE PATTERN
THAT WILL AFFECT POHNPEI WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CHUUK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER YAP AND KOROR THOUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO THE REGION. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KOROR THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY....ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/KLEESCHULTE





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