Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250730 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
513 PM CHST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE SHEAR LINE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND OVER SAIPAN. RADAR
SHOWS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WEST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN...AND
SATELLITE INDICATES THAT AS WELL. SEAS ARE ABOUT 6 FEET AT
RITIDIAN AND 5 FEET AT IPAN...AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS
6-8 FEET AROUND THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
USED WINDS FROM THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH BROUGHT SPEEDS DOWN A KNOT
OR TWO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON RECENT HISTORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY TUESDAY AS THE SHEAR LINE GOES BACK
NORTH AND WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED THE WAVE HEIGHTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING
SEAS BRIEFLY NEAR 10 FEET IN FAR NORTHERN SAIPAN WATERS
TONIGHT...BUT BACK TO 9 FEET OR LESS BY MORNING. IN VIEW OF
SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND THE BRIEF RESTRICTED NATURE OF THESE
SEAS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN FAVOR
OF MENTIONING THE SEAS IN THE SYNOPSIS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO MODERATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH FLARING UP EAST OF KOSRAE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE WATERS THIS EVENING. GLOBAL LIGHTNING
DATA SET SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KOSRAE BUT STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY AS SHOWERS SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MEANWHILE... CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO AND POHNPEI
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJURO AND AFFECT KOSRAE BEGINNING THURSDAY.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WAVE MODELS SUGGEST EVENT WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE
ARE FOUND NORTH OF CHUUK. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
BUT SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER CHUUK AS
THE LINE PASSES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM KOSRAE STATE
WILL PASS SOUTH OF CHUUK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOWER
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ISOLATED AS THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF CHUUK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NORTHEAST OF YAP PROGRESSING WESTWARD.
SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO A SMALL CLUSTER SITUATED JUST NORTH OF YAP
WATERS. MUCH DRIER AIR JUST UPSTREAM OF YAP WILL MOVE OVER YAP
WATERS THIS EVENING AS DISPLAYED IN RECENT IR IMAGERY AND
EVIDENCED IN THE YAP 00Z SOUNDING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PERSIST ON KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR KOROR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THERE BY MIDWEEK AS DRY
NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.