Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302050
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
650 AM CHST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MAINLY WEST OF THE MARINE ZONES. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO
KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY TODAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4
FEET THIS MORNING. THE TANAPAG BUOY OBSERVED THE EAST SWELL WHICH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE IPAN BUOY SHOWED THE SWELL
COMING FROM A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION. EXPECT SURF OF 4 TO 6 FEET
ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH MONDAY.

EAST WINDS WILL PICK-UP SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
COMBINED SEAS. THE INCREASE IN SEAS WITH THE EAST SWELL WILL CAUSE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS TUESDAY.

WW3 MODEL SHOWS A NORTH SWELL ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE SWELL WILL ONLY BE AROUND TWO FEET AND WILL
CAUSE A RISE OF AROUND ONE FOOT ON NORTH FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE FSM TO THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG WITH BUTARITARI AND
TARAWA ATOLLS. DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW HAS SETTLED IN OVER MAJURO BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER TODAY AND DISPERSE TONIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
AROUND MIDWEEK WITH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. A ZONE OF LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ENE AS ACTIVE WEATHER IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHUUK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS OR SO BEFORE CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY.
LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
CHUUK COASTAL WATERS BUT ECMWF MAINTAINS CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO
THE SOUTH OF CHUUK. FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE LONG-
TERM SO LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF THE SITUATION CAN BE MADE GIVEN A COUPLE OF MORE MODEL RUNS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER YAP THIS AFTERNOON AS
MORNING CONVECTION MOVES TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATES. A VERY DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AT YAP AS DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED SOUTH OF 7N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. POCKETS OF CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST OVER KOROR THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER TRADE-WIND
PATTERN RESUMES MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT
DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WEAK FORCING FROM A
DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF KOROR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO ISOLATED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS



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