Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 050645
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
445 PM CHST WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.
TYPHOON SOUDELOR HAS WEAKENED A BIT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUDELOR
ACROSS THE MARIANAS INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA. THE VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED GRIDS OR FORECAST. SOUTHWEST MONSOON
SURGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE ONE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR
TONIGHT...WILL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. THERE ARE SOME HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THEY SEEM TO BE MOVING THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEREFORE...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY THOUGH EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. IF SHOWERS
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH WHEN THEY BEGIN TO AFFECT SAIPAN...AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT DRIER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST RITIDIAN BUOY READINGS SHOW SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND
9 FEET. GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS THIS TO BE THE TREND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE CONCERN...HIGHER SEAS FROM
TYPHOON SOUDELOR MAY BE LAGGING BEHIND FORECAST MODELS AND THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON SWELL MAY BE GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AND A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY EVENING IF THE SEAS SHOW
SIGNS OF INCREASING FROM THE THESE FEATURES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM 10N157E
TO A CIRCULATION NEAR 4N173E. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA WILL PUSH WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS POHNPEI.
THE CONVERGENCE AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI TONIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLIGHT
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CIRCULATION WILL GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KOSRAE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS POHNPEI FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJURO.

LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH BROUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS YAP THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS YAP THROUGH THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM
THE MONSOON...SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIME ACROSS YAP THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS CONVERGENT BAND WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TAKING
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT ENDING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT YAP
AT THAT TIME. THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH SO THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT YAP THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHUUK WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN OR EASTERN
MICRONESIA THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL THAT IS
EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCED BY TYPHOON SOUDELOR TO KEEP
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE SWELLS FROM TYPHOON SOUDELOR ADDED TO SEAS INCREASED BY MONSOON
WINDS WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/ZIOBRO



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