Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 222150
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
750 AM CHST SAT AUG 23 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH GUAM WATERS
AND THE OCEAN SOUTH OF GUAM. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 3 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 THOUSAND FEET OF THE
AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY ARE
MORE DUE TO ISLAND HEATING OVER GUAM AS WE ARE EXPECTING CLEARER
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CHANGING WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SUGGEST A TROUGH
PASSAGE. THE GFS40 DID NOT HAVE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN RAIN.
THE ECMWF-HIRES DID HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO ALLOW
THIS PERIOD TO COME A LITTLE CLOSER AND WATCH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS. AT SOME POINT WE MAY NEED TO ADD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

COMBINED SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL DOUBLE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET
MONDAY. THEY ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET
AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THESE ARE WAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO NO ADVISORIES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE REST OF
AUGUST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MILD PATTERN CONTINUES OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. A RIDGING PATTERN
REMAINS OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI PROMOTING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY WEAK TROUGHING WILL AFFECT MAJURO
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF ALL THREE FORECAST POINTS.
MONSOONAL FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. CONVERGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO KOROR THIS
MORNING. THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KOROR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE MOVING WEST AND DISSIPATING. BASED ON
SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE...ONLY MADE SHORT TERM MODIFICATIONS TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT KOROR ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT BOTH YAP
AND CHUUK. BEGINNING TONIGHT...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AT ALL 3
LOCALES AS A WEAKER WIND REGIME TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE






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