Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230706 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
505 PM CHST SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AND OUT EAST TO A LITTLE PAST 150E. BUT SATELLITE SHOWS A
TRADE-WIND TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS AROUND 155E WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS AND OUT
TO THE EAST PAST 160E. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TRADE DISTURBANCE AT 155E. KEPT SHOWERS
ISOLATED AS IT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL.
ONCE THIS GETS BY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD RETURN...BUT MAY
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEK
THAT THE MODELS DRAG UP FROM NEAR POHNPEI AND MOVE NORTHWEST
MAINLY EAST OF THE MARIANAS. HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE
GRIDS AT THIS POINT...AS IT APPEARS SPECULATIVE AT BEST.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED ALL THE WAVE AND SWELL GRIDS...BUT THIS DID NOT RESULT
IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE RIP RISK MAY REACH LOW
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK CIRCULATION LIES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 5N151E. THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH RUNS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION...TO SOUTH OF
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND NEAR KOSRAE. SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF CHUUK AND
POHNPEI AND WEST AND SOUTH OF KOSRAE. IN THE COMING DAYS THE MODELS SHOW
THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATING. FOR MAJURO...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE JUST TO
THE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN
FOLLOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA DUE
TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE YAP AND KOROR MARINE
ZONES TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN
THE LONGER TERM. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED FOR CONTINUED
VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.