Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 272153
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
252 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY...AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 9 TO 10 PM FOR HOOD RIVER. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF 130W WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
CONTINUING WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BRING RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY GET CLIPPED BY A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO DURING THIS
PERIOD. /NEUMAN


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A RATHER ACTIVE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION TOWARDS NEXT THURSDAY SO POPS WERE TRENDED DOWN DURING
THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS INTO THE HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 3K AND 4KFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AB/NEUMAN

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS PUSHED UP THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
HAS MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER THE VALLEY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. A COLD FRONT
JUST OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD RAIN ONTO THE COAST AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
VALLEY BY 06Z TO 09Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE
FRONT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS
FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH BUOY 29 NOW SEEING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY AROUND 6 PM AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE POST FRONTAL
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 10 FT AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN SAT MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES
BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHER PRES OVER
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE SW GRADIENT
MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME INCREASING WESTERLY SWELL ON
SUN...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE BY
SUN AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
    TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
    THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 AM TO
    1 PM PDT SATURDAY.

&&


$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


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