Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. H7 TEMPS
TODAY ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WL RANGE FROM ABOUT 5C TO 10C.  HIGH
TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR COLO SPGS IS 73 SET IN 1998...FOR PUEBLO IS 75 SET
IN 1998.  THE HIGH VALLEYS WL MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

IT WILL BE WINDY OVR THE MTNS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
DID SHOW STABLE LAYER AROUND MTN TOP...WITH A PERIOD OF REVERSE
SHEAR THIS EVENING. DURING THIS TIME THE WRF SHOWS A SMALL PORTION
OF THE SRN SANGRES NR THE NM BORDER...POSSIBLY REACHING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.  FOR NOW WL JUST SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
WESTERLY WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY NR THE MTNS AND OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINDY TO VERY WINDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG JET STREAM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WESTERLY H7 FLOW PROGGED BETWEEN 25-40 KTS...AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A
FEW POSSIBLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
DAMAGING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WESTERLY H7-H6 WINDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 50-65KTS...ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING MT TOP
INVERSION AND REVERSE SHEAR THROUGH 12Z-15Z SUN...BEFORE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE AS JET CORE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
PLENTY OF TIME BEFORE THE EXPECTED ONSET...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS STRONG WIND POTENTIAL BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PASSING JET CORE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO OOZE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BRISK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HAVE STAYED AT OR BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHERE
SOUNDING DATA INDICATING STRONG INVERSIONS HOLDING THROUGH THE
DAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEAKENS TO AN OPEN
WAVE WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF GENERALLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTDVD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY SW TO W WINDS IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR
THE MTNS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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