Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 040504
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS...AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  SO DROPPED POPS DOWN INTO THE SILENT
CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS...ALONG
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE/DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY COULD SEE SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TOWARDS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING OVER HEAD AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOSTLY 50S FOR THE MOUNTAIN
COMMUNITIES.  MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THIS...WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW
CARVING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AND
ANOTHER LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH A DRY LINE
LURKING AROUND THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH
REACHING THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS COOLING BACK TO AT AND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.PERIOD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW
CARVING OUT ACROSS THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND SLOWLY LIFTING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AND
ANOTHER LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH A DRY LINE
LURKING AROUND THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGH
REACHING THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
UPPER LOW EJECTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS COOLING BACK TO AT AND BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND 4 CORNERS INTO THU. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.|

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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