Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH AREA
RADARS SHOWING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR AND ID
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR COLORADO
TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.  BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL COME IN AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THUS EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
FALL IN THIS REGION...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND MORE SNOW TO FOLLOW.  ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHICS
AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...STILL LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF GOOD QG LIFT WITH AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HAZARD GRID CAPTURES THE SCENARIO WELL WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
ONLY CONTRIBUTION WAS TO ADD ZONE 64 AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NW OROGRAPHICS
BY THE EVENTS END.

WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL INCREASE TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING AS A BRIEF MTN WAVE TRIES TO SET UP.  HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL 4KM WRF KEEPS STRONGER WINDS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND INVERSION LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR OPTIMAL
MTN WAVE PARAMETERS. BY 06Z...UPPER LIFT WILL START TO COME IN...AND
MTN WAVE POTENTIAL BREAKS DOWN AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES ALOFT.  AREAS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH
RANGE...AND SANGRES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS...BUT FOR
NOW THINK GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
AREAS TONIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITOES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE AS
THE LEE TROF AIDES IN SPREADING WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH TIME...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR MOST AREAS.  THIS WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE MTN AREAS SEE READINGS SIMILAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z TO 12Z.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THOUGH CREST OF THE SANGRES AND PIKES PEAK
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MOUNTAIN SNOW FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THE DRUMBEAT OF PERSISTENT
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
CONTDVD...AND ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL MTS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG NW WINDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AND ONGOING
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME. THE THREAT OF SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO END ON
MONDAY. AS FOR TH E PLAINS...MODELS STILL SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF PCPN. TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE W-NW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...AND BOTH DAYS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS. COLDER AIR IS LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT FOR
THE TIME BEING IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND COMFORTABLE
THANKSGIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

FRIDAY...THE GFS HINTS AT THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON
FRI...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND ISOLATED SNOW RETURNING TO THE
CENTRAL MTS. THE EC CONTINUES THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WED AND THU.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH MAX TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE END OF
NOVEMBER...NOT A BAD WEATHER TREND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WITH WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE...AND EVEN POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AT TIMES.  THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE TO THE LEE OF THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSES ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY...THOUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AREAS OF
LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND OF PIKES PEAK AND THE WET
MTNS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE GUSTIER WINDS BYPASSED AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUS THE TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE WEST TO SW WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TODAY. SNOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CONTDVD AFTER 21Z-00Z WITH +SN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 09Z...WITH NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT KCOS AND KPUB.  A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW
TO PUT INTO TAFS AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ064-066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ059-061.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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