Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 010914
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA WITH MUCH OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH INTO OREGON. ALTHOUGH A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY THERE IS STILL ENOUGH COLUMN
MOISTURE AND HEATING TO ALLOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH
ABOUT 20-25KTS PRESENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 45 MPH ALONG
WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY TRANSPORT AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY FROM THE H-1 AND 3-7 DAY WILDFIRES.
PORTIONS OF MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE FROM THE
FRENCH FIRE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES SMOKE ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST THIS AFTERNOON. PERSONS SENSITIVE TO SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN
INDOORS WITH THE WINDOWS CLOSED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
MOTORISTS AND AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND ALSO SOUTH THROUGH
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NEAR
140W WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW THIS FEATURE WILL COME
AND GO IN THE MODEL DATA.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST, THEN MOVE OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  MAIN THREATS ARE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.  HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT
MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO REBUILD THE MOISTURE BELOW RIDGE LEVEL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY, BUT WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW, PUSH AWAY FROM THE SIERRA CREST BY MID TO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THIS PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST
THREAT, WHICH MAY KICK OFF AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY WITH A THREAT OF STORMS LIMITED TO
SOUTH OF BRIDGEPORT TO FALLON.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUSH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRE ALONG
THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES INTO THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS LOW AS 3 MILES, NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH AND ACROSS MONO, MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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