Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 132303
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. A
FAST MOVING STORM WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINTRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AN EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AS A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS IN
CALIFORNIA`S CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES ABOVE
8000 FEET WHERE GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ANYONE WITH
BACKCOUNTRY RECREATION OR TRAVEL PLANS INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OTHERWISE, MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR WESTERN NV AND IN THE 50S NEAR THE SIERRA.
WE DID HOLD THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE, AS LIGHTER WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO FULLY MIX OUT
OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS. JCM

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TO BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
FOLLOWED BY A BURST OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL ALSO COME TO AN END AFTER
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BY 10-15 DEGREES AND CLOSE TO
MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES ON THURSDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN WEATHER EFFECT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 700 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 60-65 KT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINTING AT A STABLE LAYER AROUND THE 750-650 MB LAYER AND SOME
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THIS LAYER, WHICH IS TYPICALLY A
SIGNATURE FOR ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE GUST POTENTIAL. WE CONTINUED TO
TREND WINDS UPWARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 50 MPH
IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR, AND POSSIBLY
ABOVE 60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 100 MPH.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV WITH A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THE
SIERRA, AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO START
RATHER HIGH, NEAR OR ABOVE 7500 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT FALL
ABRUPTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT WILL
LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS, RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS AND POSSIBLE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SIERRA INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND RENO-
CARSON CITY AND EASTWARD ALONG I-80 AND US 50, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT UNLIKELY BELOW 5000
FEET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AND END DURING THE
DAY IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING NEAR THE SIERRA.

FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE RETURNS TO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PUSHES A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE FRIDAY
THRU EARLY SATURDAY TIME FRAME. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
SOURCES KEEP THE PRECIP NORTH OF LASSEN COUNTY AND THE NEVADA/OREGON
BORDER, A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH
WITH LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND RENO-
CARSON VICINITY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND EXTENT IS
RELATIVELY LOW, BUT EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS WOULD ONLY
PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW.

AT THIS TIME, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE FROM FRIDAY
THRU SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 50S
FOR WESTERN NV AND MID-UPPER 40S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. IF THE TROUGH
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, THEN TEMPS ON SATURDAY COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE SURPRISE VALLEY.
PATCHY SHALLOW FZFG POSSIBLE AROUND KTRK EARLY SUN BTWN 10-14Z
(ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY) BUT UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS.

GENERALLY LIGHT SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF INCREASED NORTH WINDS SUN AFTN-EVE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
15-20 KT AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. STRONGER RIDGE TOP GUSTS UP TO 50 KT
COULD LEAD TO SOME TURBULENCE SUNDAY AFTN-EVE NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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