Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 171019
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE HAS IMPROVED OVER MOST
AREAS EXCEPT AROUND LOVELOCK AND FALLON WHERE LATEST OBS HAVE
REPORTED VISIBILITY AT 3-4 MILES. THIS SMOKE SHOULD DISPERSE INTO
A HAZE LAYER THIS MORNING, BUT ASSUMING ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF THE
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER SW WINDS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHWAY 50
NORTHWARD INCLUDING THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SOME LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS, BUT AS THE WINDS INCREASE
LATER TODAY THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TO ABOVE 15% IN MOST AREAS. WE WILL KEEP A
HEADLINE GOING FOR NOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT NO
WARNINGS ARE PLANNED.

AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, WHERE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL NV AND WARMER TEMPS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK JET
STREAK MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST NV TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY, THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK
CROSSING WESTERN NV WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY, THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER ANY PORTION OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS SLIM AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY
COOLER WITH MOST VALLEYS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S EXCEPT REMAINING IN
THE 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AND PRECIP POTENTIAL IS HIGHER.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST, THE PRECIP POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTY WHICH MAY BE UNDER A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING WITH REGARD TO CLOSED LOW. THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
POSITION OVER CNTRL-SOUTHERN CA EARLY SATURDAY WITH LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. SO WE HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
GENERALLY TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 50. THIS TRACK WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S MOST
LOWER VALLEYS FOR SAT-SUN. AFTER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS RISE. IT WILL BE DRY MON-TUE WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
GUSTS 30-35 KT. RIDGES WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 50-55 KT WHICH
SUGGEST SOME TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA TODAY. SMOKE FROM
THE KING WILDFIRE WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO WESTERN NV-NORTHEAST
CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND MAY OBSCURE TERRAIN AND REDUCE VSBY TO 3-5 SM AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KTRK-KRNO.

ON THURSDAY, TROUGH WILL BE PASSING WITH A SLGT CHC OR LOW END CHC
OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV IN DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF UPPER LOW.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BE MUCH LIGHTER. AS A
RESULT, SMOKE PLUME WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND INCLUDE ALL NORTHERN SIERRA
AND FAR WESTERN NV TAF SITES (KRNO-KCXP-KTVL-KTRK). IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS EAST. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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