Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 251611 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
811 AM PST Sat Feb 25 2017
Quick update to the forecast this morning, due to the ongoing
light snow around the Reno-Tahoe area. A persistent band of light
snow will continue through the morning hours and likely through
the early afternoon as well. Cold temperatures have allowed for
snow to stick at all elevations, creating slick road conditions.
This afternoon we should see some warming from the late February
sun and some melting of snow on the road surfaces.
The main areas of accumulation will be from I-80 northward, with
up to a couple inches of accumulation possible on the valley
floors of western NV, including Reno and Sparks. Localized high
amounts of snow may be possible for elevations above 5000 feet,
such as North Valleys and Spanish Springs and Northwest Reno. Hoon
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM PST Sat Feb 25 2017/
A weak disturbance will bring scattered snow showers to the
region today. Low pressure will bring gusty winds Sunday followed
by another chance for snow Sunday night and Monday. Drier
conditions are then expected next week with below average
temperatures through Wednesday followed by a slow warming trend.
Two weak weather systems will keep the potential for snow showers
going this weekend into Monday, but neither is anywhere close to
the intensity of the storms experienced earlier this month.
The first of these shortwaves dives south off the northern CA
coast today and keeps most moisture west of the Sierra crest,
although an area of divergence aloft and weak instability will
keep some snow showers going through the day. The best overall
chance will be for areas north of I-80, but most areas will see
little or no accumulation, with isolated locations possibly
getting an inch or two. Most shower activity will diminish this
evening, except for slightly higher potential for Alpine and Mono
counties as the upper level divergence associated with the
offshore low moves over these areas.
The next shortwave continues to trend slower with precipitation
onset, with light snow showers holding off until Sunday
afternoon and limited to northeast CA-northwest NV. Winds will be
the primary feature with this system Sunday afternoon-evening with
gusts 40-45 mph and Sierra ridge gusts up to 90 mph.
Snow is still expected mainly for eastern CA Sunday night and
Monday but the system is looking even more disorganized on the
latest guidance sources. The latest projections call for 2-6" with
locally up to 8" around the Tahoe basin, with 1-4" across Plumas-
western Lassen-western Mono counties. Elsewhere, snowfall totals
will likely be 1" or less. These light amounts could still produce
some travel inconveniences into the Monday morning commute, since
temperatures of paved surfaces at all elevations will remain
below freezing. Lighter snow showers may persist into Monday
afternoon before diminishing Monday night. MJD
LONG TERM...Tuesday and beyond...
Other than a few very light lingering snow showers Tuesday morning,
the forecast looks to be dry throughout the week and heading into
the weekend. Winds will generally be light, though some breezy
conditions are possible near the Oregon border next weekend as a jet
segment pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the period, with model forecast soundings
indicating weak inversions setting up. Considering the time of year,
it`ll be hard for inversions to strengthen. Therefore, have
continued the trend of warming temperatures for the end of the
week and into the weekend, but kept a bit below guidance to
account for inversion conditions.
Taking a look at the longer range forecast guidance, there is still
a weak atmospheric river signal showing up in long range ensembles
for the end of the first week/beginning of the second week of March.
However, the best signal points toward moisture making landfall in
the Pacific Northwest, leaving the Sierra and northwest Nevada
mainly dry with just passing clouds. This also lines up well with
500 mb height anomalies, which keep areas of low pressure near the
Aleutian Islands and also across the east coast with flat ridging
for much of the west. -Dawn
Scattered light snow showers are possible through the day, but the
predictability of these passing directly over a terminal is low. The
snow showers may bring brief periods of MVFR-IFR conditions with
mainly VFR conditions outside of the showers. The greatest impact is
likely to be terrain obscuration due to lowering ceilings. The
showers may bring light accumulations with totals throughout the day
an inch or less.
A slightly stronger storm is likely to bring additional snow showers
late Sunday into Monday with a few inches of accumulation possible
for KTVL/KTRK/KMMH and up to an inch for KRNO/KCXP. Winds will also
be strong on Sunday with peak gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range and
turbulence possible. -Dawn
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM PST Monday
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