Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 252238 AAA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.UPDATE...
One thing I did not mention earlier was the smoke from the Soberanes
Fire near Monterey. Haze will continue from the fire this evening.
Winds tonight into Tuesday look to see a return of the smoke and
haze again tomorrow morning south of a Susanville to Gerlach line.
Going into Wednesday and Thursday, haze may linger, but smoke
returning from the fire looks less likely. Winds aloft turn more
south and east to southeast at the surface which should keep the
smoke to the west. One caution though, with that flow we may see
some haze from the Sand Fire burning near Los Angeles.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions with light winds are expected under strong
high pressure this week. The warmest temperatures are likely
Wednesday through Friday, with some cooling next weekend. Some
increase in moisture will lead to a few thunderstorms later this
week through next weekend.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft will continue to be the main player this week
with hot temperatures expected. The high reaches its peak Thursday
over Nevada with the hottest temperatures centered around that
day. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures into the
triple digits for most Western NV valleys and into the NE
California deserts. Highs of 105+ are likely in the hottest
valleys along the highway 95 corridor those days. With that in
mind, have issued a Heat Advisory for zones 1/4 that incorporate
the 95 corridor. Slightly cooler for the Sierra Front, but highs
will still be 100-105, not quite heat advisory criteria. However,
with this heat, if you can avoid any strenuous activity during the
afternoons, do so.

The one good side of this heat wave is the extreme dryness on the
leading edge. As a result, temps will cool off a bit more than
other heat waves we have seen in the past. Overnight lows will
drop to 65 or below for most valley locations.

As we hit Thursday, which right now looks to be the hottest day,
our attention will also focus on possible convection. We have left
the slight chance of storms along the Sierra Crest south of Tahoe.
The GFS continues to hint at it, and since the hottest days of a
heat wave often have isolated convection, it seems reasonable.
Friday and Saturday look have better chances as a weak trough off
the coast helps to pull up a little more moisture on the backside
of the ridge.

The main threats from these storms with the very dry low levels
will be gusty outflows and lightning. Right now coverage looks
isolated, but this will continue to be monitored for any fire
weather issues later this week.

As we move into Sunday and Monday, the trough becomes a little
stronger along the coast with the high retreating into AZ/NM. The
stronger southwest flow will push any threat of convection east,
although a few remain possible over Mono and Mineral Counties
Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will also cool closer
to average for late July and early August with typical afternoon
southwest wind gusts of 25-30 mph.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through Friday with light winds. Hot temps with
high density altitudes that may affect airport ops Wednesday
through Friday. Isolate thunderstorms are possible as early as
Thursday, but more likely Friday into Saturday.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Friday
     NVZ001-004.

CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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