Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 251032
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL TREND IS ON TRACK FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
CONTINUING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND A
WEAK LOW AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD TODAY EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPS WITH SOME RECORDS
IN THE SIERRA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE 60S FOR ALMOST
ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS AS RIDGE TEMPS APPROACH 50 DEGREES.

CLOUDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AS
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND THE LOW OVER BAJA BEGINS ITS TREK NORTH.
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY DESPITE THE MILD TEMPS ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. THIS LOW WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL ALSO HELP TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS, EVENTUALLY DROPPING
NEAR OR BELOW 7000 FEET AT PRECIP ONSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.

THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW LEVELS AVERAGING AROUND 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENT. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE LOW, THE
FORCING IS WEAK SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT; A NICE HIGH POP,
LOW QPF EVENT. EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE
DEPTH OF DRY AIR IS LESS AT ONSET. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIMITED IMPACTS
EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. WHILE SNOW WILL MIX IN AT TIMES AT
LAKE LEVEL AROUND TAHOE, EXPECT ROADS THERE TO REMAIN WET.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...
FOR WEDNESDAY, SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW FOR TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIPITATION
WITH IT, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. WHILE A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVER THE SIERRA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW IS LOW SO WE WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WEAK BAGGY TROUGH THEN SETS UP OVER
WESTERN NV WITH A SMALL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 MAINLY ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES BY FRIDAY, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN PLACE
IN CASE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENDS UP DELAYING ITS PUSH FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH.

BY NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE BAJA COAST. THIS WOULD END THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES SO WE WILL
GO DRY ALL AREAS STARTING SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND/OR LIGHT NORTH TO EAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS
OVERHEAD, WITH MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DAYTIME TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER LOW.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY EAST RIDGE WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME TURBULENCE NEAR THE
SIERRA TERMINALS MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THESE EAST WINDS
WILL ALSO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT KTRK TODAY. AS RIDGE WINDS
DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT, PATCHY FZFG MAY DEVELOP AT KTRK
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS, A
RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES. FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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