Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 120937
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEVADA WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS NEVADA BRINGING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, BUT COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LASSEN CONVERGENCE
ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE HIGH 90S AND THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING
105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA.

ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST ON
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY INITIATE A FEW CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. BEST
FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN ACROSS OREGON FOR NOW, BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHORTWAVE IF MODELS START TO TREND IT FURTHER
SOUTH. CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL BE LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA ON MONDAY
LIKELY BRINGING RECORD SETTING HEAT TO THE REGION. THE RECORD
HIGH FOR RENO ON MONDAY IS 103, WHICH IS THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DRY STRIKES AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE
POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT FAVORS HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL.
ELW
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS WELL AS WINDS LATE WEEK. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE IT RETROGRADES
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THERE IS A TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN
WHEN THAT OCCURS LATE WEEK THAT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE REGION.

CONTINUED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALIGNS CLOSEST WITH THE GFS. HOWEVER, THE GEM/EC KEEP THE 700 MB
FLOW MORE EAST WHICH IS DRIER AND LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 IN THE LATEST RUNS. ALONG WITH THAT, TEMPS WOULD BE
WARMER IN THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK FAIRLY WET AS PW
APPROACHES 1 INCH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

WHEN THE RIDGE RETROGRADES OFF THE COAST, THE TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN
THE EAST SIDE HAS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS WELL. THE GFS IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE EC FURTHEST EAST AND KEEPING THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EC ENSEMBLE/GEFS LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST ALSO RESEMBLES THIS FAR
OUT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS NORTH OF I-80. HOW STRONG DEPENDS ON
THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS WEEKEND.
SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MONDAY THEN HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY ONWARD. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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