Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291220
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.AVIATION...
A large area of mostly showers with some embedded -tsra was noted
across most all terminal sites this morning with the exception of
the TYR and LFK terminals. This large area of convection has shown
a tendency to shrink in coverage and weaken in intensity over the
last couple hours and this should be the continued trend going
through the remaining morning hours.

Ceilings attm are mostly VFR with some embedded MVFR conditions in
and to the north of the large area of convection this morning.
True cold front was located just to the north of this convection
this morning and the frontal boundary will continue to make slow
but steady progress to the south and west during the day. Model
cross sections trying to depict the possibility of MVFR post
frontal ceilings today, especially for the MLU and ELD terminals
so continued this trend from the previous 00z taf package.
Otherwise, a return to MVFR ceilings between 35-45hdft will be
possible at the remaining terminal locations later today
continuing into the evening hours before a clearing trend
commences overnight.

Look for mostly variable pre frontal winds today less than 10kts
with a NNE to NE post frontal wind less than 10kts later today
through the overnight hours.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front near the I-40 corridor will move swd into the area
later today. Meanwhile, a bkn line of convection will move swd
across the I-20 corridor this mrng. Daytime heating may allow a
few storms to become stg, but limited lapse rates and shear should
keep storms below svr limits, despite increasing northerly flow
aloft. As this convection may not reach portions of east TX until
late aftn, heat and moisture pooling may bring aftn heat index
readings over 105 degrees with mid 90 temps and mid to upper 70
dewpoints this aftn. Upper ridging will continue to remain well
west of the region thru early next week with deep northerly flow
to become drier. Sfc dewpoints to fall well into the 60s with no
rain chances and no heat index concerns with high temps the next
few days in the upper 80s and lower 90s and overnight lows mainly
in the 60s. As low lvl easterly flow deepens by mid week, moisture
will gradually increase across the area with seasonally expected
daytime and overnight temps, and isold mainly aftn and eve
convection to prevail thru most of the extended fcst period.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  91  68 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  89  68  89  68 /  40   0   0   0
DEQ  87  67  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  87  68  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  87  66  89  67 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  93  73  91  69 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  92  73  91  68 /  30   0   0   0
LFK  95  76  93  70 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

07/13



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