Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 031515
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHOWERS OVER SE TX/SW LA...WHERE MOIST AIRMASS TO 500 MB AS
SEEN ON 12Z LCH SOUNDING...TO MOVE NWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTH AT 12Z SHV SOUNDING...DRIER
AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE ISOLD
IN FCST AS IS FOR SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF CWA. PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...ALSO
APPEARS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/12Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX AND
N CNTRL LA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING KTYR/KGGG/KLFK.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT KMLU/KELD LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 03/15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE TX COAST WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINANT...LEADING TO HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY RELIEF
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS
BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM BUT A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE SOUTH BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE SPEED AND
TIMING OF THIS FRONT JUST A BIT...POSSIBLY STALLING IT BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR REGION BUT STILL THINK IT WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE ON
THROUGH BY FRIDAY AND PROVIDE SOME MUCH WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  94  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  72  93  73 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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