Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 222054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLIES. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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