Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 201155
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
555 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 20/12z TAFs, ceilings will be quite variable across the
area at the start of the period, but most locations, with the
exception of Northeast Texas, should experience MVFR/IFR flight
conditions. Ceilings should lift and scatter through remainder of
the morning, and VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites by
noon. More low clouds and MVFR ceilings are likely after 21/03z as
moist low-level southerly flow persists. Scattered convection is
expected to develop across Louisiana and East Texas tonight
through the end of the period. There is some question how far to
the northwest the convection will be, but most of the models keep
showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of a KLFK-KMLU line.
Some of the convection could be strong to severe at times.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Two concerns for this morning is patchy fog and the potential for
severe weather later today. Patchy fog is possible across north
Louisiana and east Texas through 10 AM. At this time southerly
winds have remained 5 to 10 kts through the early morning hours
and will continue through the afternoon. IR imagery shows high
clouds moving in from the west which has kept fog from forming
this morning, but if these clouds begin to scattered we could see
fog develop during the morning commute in areas that received
rain on Thursday. Todays temperatures will be in the low to mid
70s across the four state region which is a warmup from
temperatures in the 60s on Thursday.

A shortwave trough located near northern New Mexico will move
into TX and the lower MS Valley bringing a chance for severe
thunderstorms tonight. The southerly/southwesterly low level jet
of 40 to 50 kts along with daytime heating could support discrete
super cells, isolated tornadoes and hail. Low level shear will be
near 5 to 15 kts today along with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s. The key factor for todays severe weather is will a warm front
to our south which is forecast to move north into our area. GFS
sounding indicates 0 to 3 km lapse rate between 7 to 8 C/km,
along with CAPE of 350 to 500 J/.

Saturday, rain will continue along with a continued threat of
severe weather mainly in the form of hail with isolated tornadoes
possible in discrete cells during the evening. The potential
severe weather threat could possibly increase if a surface low
develops near the exit region of the low level jet near our area.
This along with steep lapse rates and cold mid-level temperatures
above a moist surface layer with vertical shear could help to
ventilate thunderstorms. Sunday, conditions forecast to improve
from west to east through 18Z, with high temperatures in the mid
60s. The next chance for rain will be late Wednesday or early
Thursday when another trough approaches from the west.

Washington

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  54  72  50 /  10  30  40  50
MLU  76  56  73  53 /  10  40  50  60
DEQ  70  47  70  46 /  10  20  30  50
TXK  70  52  71  49 /  10  30  30  50
ELD  72  53  71  50 /  10  20  40  60
TYR  73  53  71  49 /  10  30  40  40
GGG  74  54  71  49 /  10  30  40  40
LFK  77  56  74  51 /  10  40  50  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

21/09



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