Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 210656 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1256 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WOOD COUNTY
TX TO CLAIBORNE PARISH LA. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY SO
FAR...BUT WHERE IT IS VSBYS HAVE CRATERED TO BELOW 1/4 SM IN MANY
PLACES...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN CADDO/BOSSIER PARISHES. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA BUT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE ADVISORY AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS. SOME FOG MAY STILL BE LINGERING
AFTER THE ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 15Z BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE IMPROVED BY
THAT TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A BAND OF LOW VFR CIGS ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF
NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR WHICH CONTINUE TO LIFT N...THE LAST OF
THE STRATUS HAS CLEARED THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DAMP SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY...PATCHY
DENSE FG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/WRN LA. SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF FG EXPAND ELSEWHERE...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SHV/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE VSBYS RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH THE FG SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE. AS THE FG LIFTS
AFTER 15-16Z...PERIODS OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...BEFORE CIGS
BECOME VFR AND POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SE 4-8KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGES ALL AROUND WITH SKY...TEMPS...WEATHER AND WINDS.

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE EXTENDS MORE OR LESS ALONG I-30 AND HAS BEEN
EDGING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THE KSHV VAD IS SHOWING MORE
SHALLOW NORTHEAST FLOW AS COMPARED TO OUR 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING TO
3KFT...THE VAD IS E/SE NOW AT 2 AND 3KFT RESPECTIVELY. AS SKIES
ARE CLEARING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE FALLING WITH SOME OBS NEAR
FORECAST LOWS. DIFFICULT TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR FOG GOING AWAY WITH
ALREADY SOME 2 TO 4 REPORTS AT MARSHALL AND MINDEN. LOTS OF OTHER
SITES WITH 5 AND 6 MILE OBSCURATIONS. WENT WITH PATCHY NOW AND
AREAS OF DENSE 06-12Z.

SOME OF THE FOUR STATE AREA DRIED OUT A BIT WITH SUNSHINE...BUT
OTHER LOCALES ESPECIALLY WEST STILL HAVE GOOD SOURCE REGIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITH FRESHLY DAMP SOIL. FOR THIS UPDATE WE HAVE
LOADED IN NEW NAM WINDS AND LAPS TO CURRENT WITH CALM TO LESS
THAN 3 KNOTS FOR MANY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OF CONDITIONS AS ANY
DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REQUIRE ANOTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT IF
EARLY OR PERHAPS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERESTING TO NOTE...THE NEW NAM IS SHOWING OVERCAST WITH NOT TOO
BAD VISIBILITY FOR SOME SITES...BUT 1 MILE AT OTHERS...SO THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT FOG MAY FORM AND SLOWLY LIFT TO FORM A LOW CLOUD
DECK PRIMARILY AT A STEEP INVERSION AT 1.5KFT SHOWN ON OUR
SOUNDING AN PERHAPS JUST END UP BEING MORE CLOUDS THAN
FOG...THEREFORE BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN
LIGHT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  67  53  60  36 /  10  10  30  40  20
MLU  44  65  55  62  37 /  10  10  40  50  30
DEQ  42  62  45  50  32 /  10  20  30  40  20
TXK  44  63  49  57  34 /  10  20  30  40  20
ELD  43  60  51  61  34 /  10  20  40  50  30
TYR  46  67  50  59  36 /  10  10  30  30  10
GGG  45  68  51  59  35 /  10  10  30  30  10
LFK  46  69  55  61  36 /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09/09




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.