Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261944
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection finally gaining some steam across portions of the
region this afternoon, particularly across se OK and Deep E TX.
Visible satellite imagery shows a very healthy CU field pretty
much areawide, so hoping that the coverage continues to increase.
Heat index values across the region are hovering around 100-102
at most sites, with a few sites around 105.

Weather pattern continues to be dominated under a weak ely
tropical wave and generally very weak flow aloft. This will
continue through Wed, with models indicating good precip coverage,
considering the fact that it`s late July. Deepening upper trof
will dip into our region and phase with the lingering ely wave
Thursday, which should provide better than average summertime
convective coverage. With increased cloud cover and rainfall
coverage, we should see below-normal temps for these days. Have
still not felt comfortable going with the consensus blend numbers,
as they just seem unlikely, even with clouds/rain.

Our rain chances will begin to decrease by Fri through the
weekend, as the trof shifts ewd into the mid MS River Valley.
As we move into next work week, upper ridge looks to return over
the srn plains in the wake of the upper trof. This unfortunately
means that the blazing summer heat will likely return for the
first week of August. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR the 25/18Z TAFS VFR conditions will continue through most of
the TAF period with CU of 5KFT to 6KFT developing during the
afternoon and persisting through the evening hours. Rain chances
will be low but could see isolated showers and thunderstorms from daytime
heating and upper-level and stalled out trough near OK/AR.
However,confidence is low due to the drier air that has filtered
into the terminal sites. Winds are out of the South to Southeast
at 5 to 10 kts before becoming light and variable around 27/10Z.
The light winds will allow MVFR vsbys to form across our E TX
terminals before lifting out by 27/15Z. /21/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  92  75  89 /  20  50  30  50
MLU  75  88  75  88 /  20  50  30  50
DEQ  74  95  74  91 /  20  50  30  50
TXK  75  92  75  90 /  20  50  30  50
ELD  75  88  74  88 /  20  50  30  50
TYR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  20  50
GGG  75  93  76  92 /  20  50  20  50
LFK  75  90  76  93 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12


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