Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 260953
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
253 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Daytime highs will be well above normal through Friday. Cooler
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our natural cooling mechanism via the marine layer and delta
breeze is fading away overnight. The Fort Ord Profiler shows the
marine layer below 1000 ft deep and the decreasing onshore
gradient from San Francisco to Sacramento has weakened the delta
breeze. For today through Friday, our weather will be dominated by
strengthening high pressure that will warm up the airmass over our
region. Have only made minor tweaks to this morning`s forecast
package. Primary concerns Tuesday-Friday continue to be:

1) Well above normal temperatures with valley highs ranging
between 103-112 degrees

2) Hazy/smoky conditions tracking eastward from the Soberanes
Wildfire south of Monterey, CA

3) Possible Sierra thunderstorms from monsoonal moisture starting
Thursday

Short term models show that the high pressure cell will peak in
strength over NorCal on Wednesday and Thursday with a slight
weakening on Friday. However, it`ll feel very hot this week
regardless of the slight fluctuations in daytime highs between
Tues-Friday. Some record highs may be broken this week. For today,
the best chance for nearing/breaking a record is at Redding with
a forecast of 109 and a record of 110 from 2006.

Even though onshore flow will be much weaker, there is still a
chance for the hazy/smoky conditions from the Soberanes Fire to
impact our skies. Yesterday, much of the haze/smoke was elevated
aloft, so it might have more air quality impact in the Sierra.

As for monsoonal moisture triggering some Sierra thunderstorms, the
best chances will be limited to the higher elevations of the
Sierra starting Thursday...generally around the Tahoe region and
southward for our forecast area. However, there could be more
coverage of thunderstorms east of the crest in Reno`s forecast
area.  JBB

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

A cooling trend will begin during the weekend and continue into
early next week as an upper trough moves across the Pacific
Northwest. At this juncture, Saturday still looks rather hot, with
more substantial cooling occurring on Sunday. Some monsoonal
moisture may still arrive over the Sierra on Saturday and spawn a
few thunderstorms, though the upper level pattern will likely
favor convection east of the Sierra crest.

Dang

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours. Smoke from the Soberanes
Fire may bring periods of haze, but smoke likely to remain
elevated. Winds generally below 10 knots except gusts up to 20
knots in the Delta.

Dang

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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