Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 250508
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1006 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer through mid week with dry conditions continuing. Breezy
north winds next few days for increased fire danger. Cooler
towards the end of the week with lighter winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Max temps warmed about 3-6 degrees over most of the CWA on Sun and
very similar warming expected on Mon. The air mass is once again
decoupling with nocturnal cooling and formation of the radiative
inversion, and Nly winds are subsiding. The 925 mbs winds show just
slightly weaker winds developing on the lee-side of the coastal
range/west side of the Vly with the strongest winds into Solano Co
around 22 kts Mon morning. These winds weaken during the day on Mon
while shifting Ewd, so another warm and dry day is expected. Much
stronger winds are forecast Mon nite and Tue morning as short wave
energy drops Swd between the offshore High Center and the inland Low
Center. Low RHS (poor overnight recovery) will maintain RFW
conditions. Although RFW may be somewhat marginal on Mon, the
forecast increase in wind speeds Mon nite and Tue should result in
relatively widespread RFW conditions.  JHM

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region
and remain in place through midweek. Little change in winds
expected the next couple of days with northerly winds in the
valley being the strongest during the day and easterly winds in
the mountains being the strongest at night and in the morning
hours. Winds will help to keep poor humidity recovery`s for a
number of areas at night, especially for the coastal range.
Temperatures will warm a little each of the next several days
topping out in the 90s by the middle of this week.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Upper level ridge over the EPAC will lead to dry conditions and
above normal temperatures across the forecast area in the extended
period. Ridge axis progged to be displaced as an upper trough
moves into the Pacific Northwest. Not much cooling is expected as
this system skirts to the north, except for keeping the
temperatures from trending upward. Forecast guidance indicates
that the upper ridge will rebuild and strengthen across interior
NorCal next weekend. Therefore, Valley highs could climb into the
mid to upper 90s. Temperatures are forecast to be 5-11 degrees
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected for Valley TAF sites for the next 24 hours.
Northerly gusts up to 20-25 kts possible in the northern Sacramento
Valley Mon 18-02z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Carquinez Strait and
Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern
Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-
Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-
Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado
Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line
Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern
Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of
the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth
Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West
of the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern
Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer,
southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF
West of the Sierra Crest.

&&

$$



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