Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 111754
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1054 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2014
Building high pressure will result in dry weather and milder
temperatures for the rest of the week. Breezy to strong northerly
winds will continue into tonight. Winds will transition to more
easterly overnight causing breezy winds along the Sierra Foothills
and breezy to gusty across Lake County.
Drier, warmer weather pattern settling into NorCal, but the
primary concern today is wind. Strong north winds are developing
in the Sacramento Valley and this event will be followed by
strengthening easterly winds overnight that will impact the Sierra
Foothills and higher elevations of Lake County. We have
updated the wind advisory to include the strong overnight
easterly winds for Lake County.
Surface high pressure building into Oregon is increasing the
north-south pressure gradient across the region. The MFR to SAC
gradient has increased to 12.1 mbs as of 10 am. Winds at Redding
have just jumped in the past hour with sustained winds around
30-35 mph and gusts over 40 mph. Gusts around Sac Metro region so
far have been ranging 25-35 mph. Gusts across Lake County so far
have ranged 20-45 mph.
The north-south gradient peaks out around midday then gradually
weakens into this evening. However, the east-west gradient
tightens tonight, so the focus of stronger winds will shift
towards the western Sierra slopes with breezy conditions reaching
the foothills but just under advisory criteria. The greater concern for
strong easterly winds will be across Lake County for elevations
above 1000 ft. Strongest gusts will be near ridgetops of Lake
County. Gradients relax Wednesday for lighter winds across the
Mild temperatures expected across NorCal through the remainder of
the week though mountain valleys sheltered from the winds will see
cool morning lows.
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Upper level ridging spreads eastward into the region late this
week, with temperatures peaking over the weekend. Well above
normal temperatures are expected, with low 80s across much of the
Valley. Confidence is lower for next week, with models diverging
on Monday. The models are 90 degrees out of phase with ECMWF
showing NW flow aloft while the GFS shows SW flow with a cutoff
Low offshore that creeps toward SoCal on Tuesday. Either way, the
forecast should stay dry, but wind directions may be tricky.
High pressure dominates with VFR today. Increasing low level wind
today and continuing tonight, especially SFC-030 AGL. In Central
Valley, local northerly surface wind up to 30 kts with gusts up
to 40 kts today. Strongest wind expected from late this morning
through afternoon from I-80 northward. Local N to E surface wind
gusts 40 to 50 kts probable over Sierra and Coastal Range,
peaking late this afternoon and tonight.
wind advisory until 8 pm pdt this evening carquinez strait and
delta...central sacramento valley...northern sacramento valley...
southern sacramento valley.
wind advisory until 5 am pdt wednesday above 1000 feet in the
clear lake/southern lake county.