Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 040000
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front slowly decaying from the Gulf Coast through southeast AL and
central GA. There was a weak surface low centered over southeast
GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed dry, sinking, N-NW
flow aloft over our area, and this dry air has dropped from the
18k to the 10k ft level at Tallahassee since 8 am EDT. Although
the boundary layer remained conditionally unstable and moist, the
dry air aloft appeared to be taking its toll on most of today`s
deep moist updrafts, and we expect nearly all of the storms to end
shortly after sunset. W-SW winds were higher than earlier
guidance, and we have adjusted the forecast to account for this.
[Through 00Z Tuesday] Isolated TSRA will diminish after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, but for a
brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KVLD around dawn. Isolated
to scattered TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, more numerous
south and east of KTLH.
.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
After tonight, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels at
least through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds
back over the local waters.
There are no fire weather concerns.
The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 76 96 75 93 75 / 20 30 30 40 20
Panama City 79 90 79 90 79 / 10 30 20 30 20
Dothan 74 97 74 95 74 / 10 20 20 30 20
Albany 74 97 74 94 75 / 10 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 74 95 76 95 74 / 30 30 30 40 20
Cross City 76 91 76 91 75 / 30 30 30 40 20
Apalachicola 79 90 79 88 78 / 10 30 30 30 20
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal