Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 201953
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

18 UTC radar/satellite imagery show scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across the region. With overall flow
being northerly around 10-15 kts, best storm growth so far has
been along the sea breeze fronts. As these boundaries move inland,
expect additional storm growth through 22z. Storms should
dissipate after sunset with a quiet night expected across the
region with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Isolated storms are
expected to develop over the coastal waters prior to sunrise, but
remain far enough offshore.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

An upper low will move west across the northern Gulf coast atop
mid and low-level ridging through Friday night. While the low may
provide a bit of synoptic ascent early on Friday, convection on
both Friday and Saturday should be dominated by the seabreeze
fronts. While there will be some dry air present in the mid-
levels, it won`t be as dry as this afternoon where a widespread
scattering of storms has been able to develop. Thus have stuck
very close to climatology with PoPs. In fact, the presence of a
reduced amount of dry air may slightly increase the wet microburst
potential both Friday and Saturday. Due to the ridge breaking down
a bit with the passage of the upper low and an expected earlier
start to convection, highs may be a couple degrees lower than
today. Expect highs to still remain in the lower to middle 90s,
with heat indices in the low 100s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A shortwave will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast
through mid-week, amplifying a trough into the Mid-Atlantic by
Tuesday. While the associated cold front will remain well to our
north, surface troughing associated with the shortwave and lee
effects is expected to run down the Eastern Seaboard into central
Georgia. WNW steering flow may push convection that develops
along the trough into the Tri-State region both Monday and
Tuesday. PoPs will be above normal to start the week, with more
typical seabreeze storms by mid-week to finish the period. Highs
will be near normal, in the lower 90s, each day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area this afternoon.
Confidence remains too low to indicate less than VFR conditions at
any particular location at this time. Outside of these localized
storms, VFR conditions will dominate through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next
several days, with the best chance of rain between midnight and
noon each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersions will be possible across portions of the tri-state
region once again Friday. Otherwise, there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Typical scattered summertime storms are not expected to cause any
flooding issues over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  74  91  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
Panama City   78  88  78  87  79 /  10  40  20  40  30
Dothan        75  92  74  91  74 /  10  40  20  30  20
Albany        75  94  74  92  74 /  10  30  20  20  20
Valdosta      73  94  73  93  73 /  10  40  20  40  20
Cross City    73  92  74  90  75 /  20  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  76  88  77  87  78 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.