Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 041431
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1031 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

The forecast remains on track for today, so only minor tweaks were
made to the existing forecast. We should continue to see clearing
skies with breezy northwest winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [619 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A cold front will push through the area today with skies clearing
from west to east through the day. There could still be a few
remaining showers this morning across the far southeast big bend,
but even those will be clearing out by this afternoon. Breezy
northwest winds are expected to advect in a drier airmass with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
The upper level pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably through the short term with a deep trough/upper low
settling over the Southern States by Thursday afternoon. With
surface high pressure back across the western Gulf, expect breezy
northwest winds on Thursday to bring increasingly drier air into
the region. Temperatures on Thursday will also struggle to warm
much out of the low to mid 70s with moderate cold advection.

The winds will only slack off a little overnight into Friday, and
as a result despite the dry and cool airmass in place,
temperatures should only fall into the lower 50s.

The upper low will still be across Eastern South Carolina on
Friday, and with light northwesterly flow, temperatures will still
only warm into the mid to upper 70s across the region under sunny
skies.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The upper low over the Carolinas will begin to depart to the NE on
Saturday, with deep layer ridging replacing it across the South.
Thus, expect a stretch of dry conditions through the first of the
week, with temperature gradually warming each day, with highs by
Sunday, nearing the 90 degree mark.

The ridging will begin to flatten out late Monday ahead of a
disturbance moving into the Central Plains. Cloud cover will begin
to increase into Tuesday, with rain chances returning by mid-week.
Continued warm afternoon temperatures are expected each day next
week, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Thursday] Skies will be clearing today as a cold
front moves through the area, and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period. Northwest winds are expected to gust
to between 15 and 20 knots at times today.


.MARINE...
Winds will shift to northwesterly this morning across the marine
area and then increase tonight to cautionary levels. A brief
period of advisory conditions is possible. Strong winds at
cautionary levels will continue through Thursday evening before
weakening on Friday. High pressure will build near the marine area
by Saturday, resulting in light winds and low seas for the
remainder of the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Much drier air will move into the area starting this afternoon and
continuing on Thursday. The combination of low RH, breezy winds, and
marginal ERC values will cause conditions to approach red flag
criteria across the southeast big bend on Thursday afternoon.
However, since all three conditions are borderline at this time, no
watches have been issued yet. Dispersion indices are expected to be
rather high this afternoon across portions of the big bend and
Thursday afternoon areawide due to deep mixing heights and
moderately strong transport winds.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall across the region north of I-10 was generally in the 1 to
1.5 inch range through late Tuesday night. Locally heavier amounts
were noted near Valdosta and just south of Tallahassee. Tuesday`s
rainfall should only cause small rises on river basins across the
eastern half of the region, mainly the Alapaha and Withlacoochee
River Basins. Any rises should stay well below action stage. With
dry conditions through the next several days, there are no flood
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   82  57  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   76  61  75  58  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        76  54  73  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  54  73  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  55  75  51  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    82  57  79  52  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  61  77  57  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lamers
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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