Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221024
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
624 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Patchy fog has developed across our inland areas, but VFR
conditions are occurring at all terminals with visibility
currently 6 miles or greater. MVFR visibility cannot be ruled out
during the next couple of hours, but any remaining patchy fog will
dissipate shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail through
the rest of the period. Isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled
out this afternoon, but chances are too low to include in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [310 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cutoff upper low will gradually drift southwestward over our area
today amidst weak upper level flow. However, northeasterly flow at
mid-levels will push drier air across our area throughout the
morning and afternoon. Moderate instability will develop as surface
heating increases, with SBCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg during
the afternoon. Despite the instability and upper low, coverage of
showers and thunderstorms should remain isolated during peak heating
hours due to the drier air being advected into our area. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The upper low, sandwiched between elongated high pressure from
Texas to the Great Lakes and hurricane Maria off the east coast,
will slowly retrograde westward across our area Saturday into
MS/LA area Sunday. Favorable lift associated with this feature
combined with increasing low/mid level moisture and low level
convergence will produce the highest precipitation chance for the
next seven days (40-50% favoring the Florida counties). Chances
decrease across the land areas and favor our coastal waters by
Sunday. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the
mid/upper 80s and lows around 70.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Aforementioned upper low weakens and becomes absorbed in the flow
while high pressure builds across the southeast US. Large scale
subsidence and dry air will put the squash on most convection
Tuesday through Friday. Therefore, lots of sun, clear skies, and
dry conditions are anticipated for much of the work week next
week. High temperatures will gradually increase into the lower 90s
and lows into the lower 70s.


.MARINE...

East winds will increase for the next few days as Hurricane Maria
traverses northward off the east coast. Cautionary conditions in
the far offshore waters is possible this weekend and especially in
the overnight hours. Winds and seas will decrease beginning early
next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated during the next few days
due to high RH values and light winds.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall on average over the next several days will be one half
inch or below. There is a possibility of isolated heavier amounts
this weekend with an overall decreasing trend starting next week.
River levels continue to trend downward and this will continue. No
widespread flooding is anticipated.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  71  87  70  87 /  20  10  40  20  30
Panama City   87  72  86  72  85 /  20  10  40  30  40
Dothan        89  68  88  68  86 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        90  69  88  68  87 /  20  10  20  10  10
Valdosta      90  69  86  68  86 /  20  10  40  10  20
Cross City    90  71  87  70  88 /  30  20  50  20  20
Apalachicola  87  73  85  73  85 /  20  10  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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