Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 200649
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The broad shortwave trough aloft over our region will exit the
region overnight, giving way to weak zonal flow Friday. However,
the stationary front at the surface over our CWA is forecast to
linger through Friday, enhancing thunderstorm chances this
Early this morning, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms could
linger over our southeastern counties, but elsewhere conditions
should remain dry. As the clouds over the southeastern half of our
CWA diminish in coverage through the early morning, patchy fog could
develop in this region during the early morning hours, especially in
areas that received rainfall Wednesday evening. With the
combination of the frontal boundary near the region and the sea
breeze circulation, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon, especially across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend and into South Central Georgia. Slightly
drier air across Southwestern Georgia and Southeast Alabama should
limit overall thunderstorm coverage in these areas. With the loss of
daytime heating, these storms should diminish after sunset.
Temperatures will remain seasonable across the CWA, with morning
lows in the low 70s and highs in the low 90s at most locations.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
Weak troughs at the surface and aloft are forecast to remain in
place along the northeastern Gulf Coast through Saturday. These
features will help to provide some enhancement to the typical
afternoon seabreeze convection.
For Friday, the surface trough will be situated southwest to
northeast across the area. With light onshore flow to the east of
the trough axis, expect highest PoPs over the Big Bend and south
central Georgia. PoPs will range from the 60s in the eastern Big
Bend to the 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
The surface trough will slide to the northwest on Saturday,
allowing for the onshore low-level flow to spread across most of
the forecast area. With the weak trough aloft and increased deep
layer moisture, expect an active day of convection on Saturday
with PoPs in the high chance to likely category area-wide.
Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both
Friday and Saturday afternoons.
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Wednesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.
[Through 06 UTC Friday] As cloud cover continues to decrease over
areas that received precipitation Wednesday afternoon and evening,
patchy fog could develop at TLH, ABY, and VLD during the early
morning hours. LIFR conditions are a possibility if the fog
develops, which is most likely to occur at VLD before 13Z. After
this time, VFR conditions are likely at all terminals until the
afternoon, when scattered thunderstorms should increase in
coverage. The highest chance of thunderstorms is from 18Z Thursday
to 00Z Friday, especially at TLH and VLD. MVFR conditions could
occur in any thunderstorms, which should diminish in coverage
A weak trough of low pressure over the waters will keep winds and
seas minimal into the weekend. Southeasterly flow will develop by
Saturday as the subtropical ridge slides to the north. However,
winds and seas will remain low with no headlines anticipated into
early next week.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for
the next several days. Thus, red flag conditions are not expected.
No significant rises are anticpated on area rivers into next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 70 89 70 89 / 50 40 50 40 60
Panama City 89 74 88 74 87 / 40 30 40 30 40
Dothan 92 71 91 70 89 / 40 20 30 30 50
Albany 92 70 89 70 89 / 40 20 30 30 50
Valdosta 91 70 89 69 88 / 50 50 50 40 60
Cross City 91 70 90 69 90 / 50 50 60 50 60
Apalachicola 88 74 87 74 86 / 40 30 30 30 30