Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 180713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
313 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Thursday)...
A stalled front continues to broaden this morning as stout
surface high pressure builds in from the Mid Atlantic states
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Weak upper troughing
extends along the southeast U.S. coast and the Florida
peninsula, with dry mid and upper level air filtering into
the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states in its wake. The
remnant front will more or less wash out as baroclinicity is
lost and surface flow becomes more uniform. The main
weather feature over the next couple of days will remain
high pressure to our north.

For today, breezy northeast winds will persist as high
pressure is anchored to the north. This will bring soggy
weather to the eastern half of the peninsula as moisture-
rich Atlantic moisture moves inland. By the time it reaches
the west Florida coast, however, much of this moisture will
have been effectively wrung out as the moist layer is very
shallow. A stray shower or two may affect mainly interior
portions of the peninsula with scattered clouds.
Temperatures will nudge upward today in the absence of
widespread clouds with highs ranging from the low 80s over
northern Florida to the middle and perhaps upper 80s
elsewhere. Slightly drier air will make it feel a bit nicer
out there today, but don`t get too excited, what we will
actually be experiencing is near normal for mid October!

More of the same is expected on Thursday, with even further
warming expected as the dry airmass deepens across the
region. highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s everywhere
with lower 90s possibly creeping back into southwest
Florida. As with today, an isolated shower or two may reach
the interior peninsula.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
The upper level trough has moved off the eastern seaboard
while ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northward over
the southeast U.S. This ridging will move east over the
Florida peninsula through the week and into the weekend. The
upper ridge moves east of Florida by next Tuesday as a
deepening trough approaches the region from the west. This
trough will lend support to our next surface front that will
bring in some much cooler and drier air into next week.

On the surface, an area of low pressure sits over Bermuda
with a stationary frontal boundary extending southwest over
the Bahamas. The main influence to the weather over Florida
will be from strong high pressure to the north over
Tennessee. This will keep an east- northeast wind flow over
the region through the weekend with minimal rain chances
between 10-30 percent each day. Winds will generally be
below 15 knots, however some gusts near 20 knots will be
possible over the coastal waters. The weather pattern
changes by the middle of next week as an area of low
pressure and associated frontal boundary develops over the
northern gulf states and moves eastward. This will bring a
shift in the winds to the south by the beginning of next
week and then to the northwest by middle of next week. Rain
chances will be higher on Tuesday as the front passes, but
will quickly clear up by the middle of next week. This is
expected to be the biggest cool down since summer with
daytime highs only reaching the upper 70`s and possible low
80`s by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
Broken VFR cigs to prevail at all terminals with brief
MVFR/IFR cigs possible for KTPA/KPIE and KLAL. Breezy
northeast winds will persist, becoming gusty during the day.
A stray shower or two may affect terminals, but confidence
is too low to warrant mention in TAF forecast.


Strong surface high pressure will continue to build in
north of the waters with breezy northeast winds persisting.
This will result in cautionary to advisory level winds and
seas for portions of the waters this morning and again
tonight into early Thursday. Nocturnal easterly wind surges
will continue to result in periods of cautionary to
borderlined advisory level winds each night into early
morning through the end of the week. Over the weekend, high
pressure will shift eastward, resulting in a southeasterly
wind shift and a relaxing pressure gradient with lighter
winds expected. A front may approach the waters early next
week, bringing increasing chances for marine thunderstorms.


Slightly drier air will continue to filter into the region
as high pressure builds to the north. Easterly winds will
become gusty during the afternoon hours, but humidities will
remain well above critical levels. Therefore, no fire
weather concerns are expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  86  70  88  72 /  20   0  10   0
FMY  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  85  70  86  70 /  30  20  20  10
SRQ  86  72  88  72 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  85  66  87  67 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  84  73  86  74 /  10   0  10   0


Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.



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