Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 031953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LEVY AND POLK COUNTIES BUT MOST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED DRY AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. TRIMMED BACK POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. AS
IT DOES...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE AS WINDS WILL
REMAIN ONSHORE BRINGING IN DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A WET WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SW FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WILL SWING
THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH TOMORROW AFTN
AND EVENING PROVIDING THE PUSH NEEDED TO GET THE FRONT TO ULTIMATELY
CLEAR THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WHICH IS QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR ENHANCING THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY. EXPECTING THE ONSET OF
RAIN TO BEGIN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST WHILE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACH THE BAY AREA
DURING THE START OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MOST AREAS WILL GET
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO WITH SOME LOCALIZED 2-3 INCHES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SAME CAN
BE SAID FOR BULK SHEAR WHICH IS IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. WHILE
THESE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT IS STILL CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED TSTM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
AS OF NOW SEEMS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SPC HAS TRIMMED
BACK THE MARGINAL RISK FOR THE AREA FOCUSING MORE ON THE I-4
CORRIDOR SOUTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND LACK OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.

THIS FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE THE ONLY REAL
WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS OUR FORECAST WILL BE DRY AFTER
THE FROPA.

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH AND BUILD EAST TO ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE
EVENING. FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH THIS FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS LIKELY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME BEGINNING TOMORROW AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING....BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CAUTIONARY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH SOLID CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER
THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL AFTERNOONS
WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR BORDERLINE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITIES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  79  66  79 / 100 100  10  10
FMY  74  82  67  84 /  30 100  50  10
GIF  72  78  62  80 /  50 100  10  10
SRQ  75  78  65  80 /  70 100  20  10
BKV  70  79  58  78 / 100 100  10  10
SPG  75  79  68  78 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD


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