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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE LEFT 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM EDT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL THREAT PRETTY LOW AND HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST DURING SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. REST OF MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS OK WITH NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  40  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  40  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  40  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  40  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  40  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE