Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
237 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight Through Sunday)...
Ridge axis still overhead bringing a light flow to the area
with winds coming out of the south to southeast. The one
exception to that will be the Nature Coast which will see
winds more out of the southwest. Already starting to see a
few showers inland and also right along the coast. This
trend will continue as the seabreeze starts to develop and
march inland through the afternoon. The 12z ROAB out of TBW
showing a little more PW compared to yesterday. This will
bring a few more storms to the area this afternoon compared
to Friday. Biggest concentration of storms will be east of
I-75 in the afternoon and early evening hours. Areas that
avoid the storms in the afternoon will see temperatures
sour into the mid 90`s.

Not much changing for our Sunday. The trend of seeing a
little bit more moisture each day will continue which will
result in a slight increase in storm activity again on
Sunday. Once again expect the better coverage to be in the
interior portions of the state.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
On Monday high pressure on the surface and aloft moves
southeast over the Atlantic Ocean as a mid level trough and
a weak cold front pushes southeast over north Florida. This
pattern provides a southwest flow and deep layer moisture
over much of the peninsula. By Tuesday the front becomes
stationary over the north central peninsula. A moist and
unstable atmosphere will lead to numerous thunderstorms over
the peninsula with convection developing early along the
west coast. During the week the stationary frontal boundary
slowly weakens and the surface ridge builds in from the east
slowly decreasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. With the
surface ridge building east-west across the northern part
of the state the dominant wind flow becomes southeast with
the pattern of afternoon thunderstorms continuing into the
weekend with seasonal temperatures.


Expect prevailing VFR cigs today with afternoon seabreeze
convection bringing temporary MVFR or localized IFR
conditions after 18z if convection manages to move over
airport. Better chances for the storms will be in the
interior part of the state but have kept VCTS for all
airports through the afternoon. VFR will be maintained
overnight and showers and storms will redevelop again
tomorrow afternoon.


Surface high pressure will remain over the area bringing us
a southeast to southwest flow for the next few days. With a
weak pressure pattern supporting a typical summer afternoon
for boaters with most showers occurring over land with
heating of the day. However boaters should still watch out
for a few storms in the gulf that could produce gusty winds
and locally higher waves.


With moist southeasterly flow continuing into next week,
moisture content and relative humidity values will remain
well above critical levels. This combined with chances for
rain each day will prevent any fire weather concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  89  77  90 /  10  30  30  40
FMY  75  92  76  91 /  40  30  40  50
GIF  76  91  75  92 /  40  50  50  60
SRQ  77  87  76  88 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  75  89  74  91 /  10  40  30  50
SPG  79  89  79  90 /  10  20  20  30


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/Paxton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.