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000
FXUS62 KTBW 070109
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT SEVERE STORMS TO OUR
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED NORTHEAST TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PENINSULA BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AT LEAST
THE NATURE COAST...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE REGION AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AND
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...STATISTICAL AND GRIDDED GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT OF THE LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR OVER THE BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER AT LEAST KTPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ.
HAVE GONE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT KEPT IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IF THIS PUSH SOUTH MATERIALIZES.
FURTHER SOUTH...JUST OFF AND ON MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CONTINUES LOOKS SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT WILL ALLOW ALL SPOTS TO REGAIN PREVAILING
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS TOWARD MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EARLIER...SO WILL HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THERE FOR NOW. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...JILLSON
AVIATION...MROCZKA