Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 071934
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY)...
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE OPEN WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...A
LARGE SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PLACING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WEST OF
THE ROCKIES SEES STRONG UPPER RIDGING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COLDER
DESPITE SUNNY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BAYS AND PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS...AND WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SETTLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE
SHOULD SEE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND PROTECTED AREAS.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS COMING IN
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE LOW 60S MOST PLACES. SUNNY SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MAINLY THE NATURE
COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DEEP DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR INVADES THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE
STACKED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT RATHER DRY AIR BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PREVENT MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT STILL CLEARING
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST...TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BREEZY AND RATHER COOL...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE THE COOLEST LOWS OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF LEVY
COUNTY...AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM THE GULF WITH DRY AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS...AND COOL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY DROPPING BACK DOWN TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...BEFORE ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS THAN THIS RECENT
ONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...AND
PERHAPS GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BUILD BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15 FEET OVER THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS TO
LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL DRY
CONDITIONS. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOTS OF COOL DRY AIR.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SEVERAL DAYS
THIS WEEK...ERC VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...AND NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  65  49  58 /   0  10  20  10
FMY  44  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  41  66  47  61 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  45  67  54  61 /   0  10  20  10
BKV  35  65  45  57 /   0  20  20  10
SPG  48  66  53  59 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM.DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING


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