Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230141 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
941 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT...

.UPDATE...
WET DAY TURNS INTO A WET NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE NEARING COLD
FRONT ARE INTERACTING AND PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME REPORTS
OF STREET FLOODING IN CHIEFLAND THIS EVENING.

HEAVIEST RAIN DOWN SOUTH HAS MOVED OUT OF LEE COUNTY INTO COLLIER
COUNTY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. 00Z TBW SOUNDING HAD A
HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.95 INCHES. 18Z GFS HAS
PICKED UP ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND PRETTY WELL...EVEN
RESOLVING A BIT OF DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HERE AROUND
00Z.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BUILD OVER SW FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SHOWER COVERAGE TO RETURN AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDER. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AT THE MID
LEVELS...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND 12Z SHOULD MAKE FOR
INCREASING MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES AND
OBSERVED TRENDS. NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT THIS EVENING ACCOUNTING
FOR THE CHANGES. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH AT THE MOMENT. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
SUNRISE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH SOME
VARIABILITY AND GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOME AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  73  87 /  60  50  30  50
FMY  72  88  72  88 /  50  60  40  50
GIF  72  88  72  89 /  60  60  30  50
SRQ  73  86  73  86 /  60  50  40  50
BKV  68  88  67  87 /  60  50  30  40
SPG  75  86  75  86 /  60  50  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





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