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000
FXUS62 KTBW 081856
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AFTER SOME FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER PLEASANT DRY DAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
AND WIND FIELDS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE SOME AS IT IMPINGES UPON IT.
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE PULLED EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LEVY COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE A
20 PERCENT POP WILL BE DEPICTED...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S
EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S OVER NORTHERN INLAND SECTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH HAS SHIELDED MUCH OF FLORIDA FROM WINTER
IN PAST FEW WEEKS WILL RETREAT SOME THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN. THE S/WV THAT SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THU BUT THIS
WILL NOT BE A CLEAN FROPA GIVEN FAR NORTH LATITUDE OF THE
WEAK/FAST MOVING UPR TROUGH. SO WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NE-E THU
INTO FRI AND DRIER AIR WILL NOT REALLY INFILTRATE CENT FL MUCH.
THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FROPA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE AFTER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE
NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUSLY GFS
WAS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THEY
HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON 00Z RUNS. GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON SUN AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTMS. WILL
SEE WHAT FUTURE RUNS BRING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 08-09Z IN FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
14Z OR SO...WITH VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN
A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE
AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BE PULLED SOUTH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WATERS
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOWARD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  66  85  65  84 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  64  84  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
SRQ  66  83  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  60  84  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  69  81  68  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...88/GITTINGER
AVIATION...05/CARLISLE