Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 071219
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES WHILE SHIFTING INLAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LESSEN TODAY BUT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD-COVER LIKELY TONIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES MOVE OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY TUESDAY. HOENISCH

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS/EC EACH TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT...AND SO IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE POPS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AREA TO SEE PRECIPITATION
BEING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A TOUCH FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT STILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MANY AREAS. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT REBUILD OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS STARTING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1230Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SOME
PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  41  27  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  40  25  44  28 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  34  18  39  20 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  29  13  33  13 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  36  24  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  42  22  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  35  22  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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