Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 252346
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2015

Aviation Section Updated

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Upper level ridge over the interior
western US will continue to shift sightly east into the Northern
Rockies and MT over the next several days, bringing unseasonably
mild and continued dry conditions to the region. At the surface, low
pressure currently located in northern SK will move off to the east
tonight, allowing the pressure gradient across north-central MT to
relax some and winds to decrease, though breezy afternoon winds are
still likely over the plains Mon and Tues. Until the pressure
gradient relaxes later this evening, periods of stronger winds
are still possible along the Rocky Mtn Front and recent observations
in Judith Basin and Fergus counties also indicate that winds may
briefly gust to 55-60 mph there, so have added these locations to
the High Wind Warning, in effect through 11 pm this evening.
Warming aloft reaches its maximum on Monday and temperatures will
warm a few degrees further from today`s much above normal values
with record high temps likely at many locations. Moisture/clouds
at 15000-20000 ft MSL are the only potential limiting factor for
Monday temperatures and clouds in this layer are forecast to be
less thick/extensive than were present today. Hoenisch

Tuesday night through Sunday...The main message is the GFS and
ECMWF are on the same page in going with drier and not as cool
conditions later in the week. Tuesday night moisture associated
with a weather disturbance aloft moving from the Great Basin to
the central Rocky Mountains will bring a chance of snow to mainly
far southwest Montana. Otherwise an upper ridge upstream of
Montana will bring mostly dry conditions. Have lowered the
inherited chances of precipitation such that there is generally
only a slight chance of snow showers over the mountains. However
would not be surprised if the entire forecast area is dry from
Wednesday night through Sunday. Models are on the same page in
bringing a colder airmass into the forecast area Wednesday. But
this will only bring high temperatures close to normal for this
time of the year. Then models now agree in warming temperatures
over the weekend. Have started the trend of going with warmer high
temperatures but there is the potential for high temperatures to
be much warmer than this latest forecast. Blank

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2345Z.
VFR conditions will prevail over the region through the period.
Widespread mid/high level cloudiness will affect the region through
the evening hours...but clouds should generally be on the decrease
after about 04z or so. Expect breezy winds to continue over North
Central MT thru the evening hours as well. Overall a nice VFR day is
expected for much of the region on Monday. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  63  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  41  60  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  34  54  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  32  55  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  44  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  37  59  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  40  56  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  40  62  40  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening Eastern Glacier...
Fergus...Judith Basin...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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