Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 012039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday...High pressure will build overnight and,
with the high pressure and drying air mass, stable conditions will
be in place Tuesday. The main interest in this forecast period is
the approaching low pressure trof to the west which will move over
the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night. This will put Central Montana
underneath southwest flow aloft. The trof will approach the Rockies
during the night and the associated cold front will move across the
Northern Rockies soon after midnight, and Cut Bank by sunrise. Low
level moisture behind the front should be reaching Cut Bank around
12z Wednesday. The push south will be weak and most moisture will
remain across the Hiline. Cooler air will move in aloft and
Wednesday will see some lift across the zones although the strongest
dynamics will be in Canada.  With cool air aloft, some breaks in the
sky cover could develop enough heating to cause some instability
across the Hiline Wednesday afternoon...and a thunderstorm is not
out of the question. Temperatures will push to near or above normals
underneath the high pressure on Tuesday back drop below normals
Wednesday. Zelzer

Wednesday night through Monday...An upper level trof of low pressure
will continue to move through the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Expect a few showers to accompany the trof from
Wednesday night into Thursday...with the best chance for any showers
falling over North Central MT. Otherwise...mostly dry
conditions...along with a warming trend is expected from Thursday
through Monday. There will be a small chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm over the weekend over the mountain areas...but
confidence is quite low at this time for the development of any
storms. In terms of temperatures...it will be cool/comfortable on
Thursday...with highs mostly in the 60s. For Friday through
Monday...expect a nice warming trend...with afternoon highs
generally ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s by Monday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Generally benign weather conditions expected over the next 24
hours across north-central and southwest Montana. May see a shower
or two over the northern Rocky Mountain Front. Will see mid-
level clouds build up a bit across the forecast area this
afternoon with gusty winds to around 30 kts continuing at KCTB.
Winds will be generally lighter elsewhere. Winds will quickly
diminish and become light and variable at most terminals by around
01-02z with few-scattered mid-level clouds continuing. Foltz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  75  51  63 /   0   0  10  40
CTB  47  71  45  56 /   0   0  10  70
HLN  48  79  50  66 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  42  76  44  65 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  33  65  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
DLN  44  76  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  49  75  50  66 /  10   0  10  50
LWT  47  74  50  65 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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