Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 222342
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
435 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Monday...The cold front has moved through most of
North Central and Southwest Montana as of 3 pm. Strong gusty west
winds will continue across most of North Central Montana through
the evening, so will let the High Wind Warning continue there
through 10 pm. Spotty strong wind gusts are expected across
Southwest Montana, but they will likely remain below high wind
criteria. Overall, winds will decrease overnight, but breezy
westerly surface winds will persist into the beginning of next
week. The shortwave trough associated with the cold front is also
moving through the area, and a disturbance in the resulting
northwesterly flow aloft will keep a chance of snow showers across
much of the area overnight. Although additional snowfall in the
mountains will be only a matter of 1 to 3 inches, the fact that
snow showers will likely continue overnight is enough to keep the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through tonight. A series of
disturbances in the northwest flow will keep at least a chance of
snow showers around through Sunday night, especially in the
mountains. However, am not anticipating enough snowfall to warrant
further winter weather highlights at this time, but the situation
will continue to be monitored. Temperatures in the wake of the
cold front will likely only cool to just below seasonal averages.
Coulston

Monday night through Saturday...Unsettled weather continues into
the long term forecast as Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for
some instability to move across the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Models have tended to come into a little better agreement with a
cooler and wetter solution for Wednesday through Friday and have
trended the forecast that way. Some decent snowfall amounts are
expected in the higher terrain at this time but models differ on
the details of how much will fall and where the heaviest snow will
be. It now appears that travel plans could be affected at least
over mountain passes and winter weather highlights might
eventually be needed. Blank/Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2335Z.
Upper-level trof and its associated cold front and precipitation
that moved thru the region earlier today is now mostly in eastern
MT.  Tight surface pressure gradient and strong winds aloft from
that system will continue to generate gusty winds through 02-04Z
with area of strongest winds (G35-50kts) along/north of a KHLN-to-
KLWT line.  Winds will gradually decrease (gusts 20-25kts or less)
this evening as the trof heads further downstream.  Meanwhile,
latest radar/satellite imagery showing a second weaker disturbance
just crossing the US/Can border into north central MT, bringing
mid-level (generally above 6000 ft) ceilings and some isolated -SHRA
vcnty KHVR. Expect this system to track south-southeast this
evening, with VFR conditions continuing into tonight. Lastly, a
third system, this one currently over near WA/ID border, will arrive
early Sun morning, with scattered showers and ceilings lowering to
around 3500-4000 ft at KHLN/KLWT/KBZN around 10-12Z.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  27  39  25  38 /  20  10  20  10
CTB  23  36  24  37 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  28  39  27  37 /  30  20  30  20
BZN  18  34  18  32 /  30  20  40  30
WEY  11  25  11  25 /  50  40  60  40
DLN  20  32  16  30 /  30  20  30  10
HVR  26  35  22  38 /  40  20  30  10
LWT  26  36  24  37 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 10 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday Beaverhead...
Gallatin...Madison.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Sunday For US 89 over
Kings Hill Pass.

&&

$$

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