Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 310927
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
327 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...A slow moving upper level low presently
over eastern Montana will drift away to the east today. Moisture
wrapping around this system will produce mostly cloudy skies and
isolated to scattered showers through early evening, mainly along
and east of a line from Havre to Lewistown. Model guidance
suggests around a tenth-inch of additional rainfall is possible
today over portions of the Bears Paw Mtns and portions of Blaine
county. However, model forecasts were too wet overnight as radar
and surface observations indicate precipitation remained just
east of our forecast area. Therefore, have followed this trend and
lowered forecast rainfall today well below guidance. High pressure
builds over the region tonight through Wednesday, yielding dry and
warmer conditions. A minor shortwave trough crosses the forecast
area on Thursday. This will cause breezy west winds Thursday
afternoon with slight chances for afternoon showers. Temperatures
remain around 5 to 10 degrees below average today before moving 5
to 10 degrees above average for Wednesday and Thursday. PN

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Little has changed for the medium
range period with dry and warm conditions being the rule. A broad
upper ridge builds over the area Friday and will persist through the
weekend. By Monday, weak short wave energy moving over the west
coast will create isolated afternoon thunderstorms across portions
of southwest Montana. As the short wave pushes further east on
Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over a greater areal
extent, but again, mainly over southwest Montana. Temperatures will
likely be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages through the
weekend period, though readings will be cooler across southwest
Montana to start the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0520Z.

Clouds and rain showers will continue to linger near KLWT/KHVR, but
gradually move east through Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours except tonight near rain showers.
PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  42  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  61  40  74  49 /   0   0  10   0
HLN  66  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  64  38  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  57  34  65  40 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  65  40  76  47 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  41  73  48 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  58  40  72  49 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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