Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 280542
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1133 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region as
disturbed flow aloft crosses the zones. Updated to freshen POPs,
WX, and QPF. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...Updated 0530Z.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early tonight,
mainly north-west of KGTF and near KBZN. This activity is weakening
and should move east of the area by around 09Z. Skies clear by
morning, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing
Thursday afternoon. This activity will be rather isolated and
generally along and east of a KHVR/KLWT/KBZN line. VFR conditions
prevail except for temporary MVFR under any thunderstorms. PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016/
Tonight through Friday...An upper level disturbance will continue
to push southeast through the region this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be common for locations mainly north of a Butte
to Bozeman line. Some storms could be strong with gusty winds,
lightning, and brief heavy rain. An isolated severe storm is
possible, mainly in the Great Falls, Lewistown, and Helena areas
early this evening. For Thursday, drier air will slowly start to
move into the region, but just enough instability over the
mountains for a few thunderstorms to develop. The storms are not
expected to make it too far off the mountains at this time, so I
kept lower elevations mostly dry, but some adjustments are
possible later tonight. On Friday, isolated thunderstorm are
possible, mainly over North Central MT as the upper level ridge
builds to our West. Afternoon temperatures will be near normal for
both Thu and Fri. Brusda

Friday Night through Wednesday...Weak ridging aloft will yield dry
conditions across the forecast area Friday night. Saturday still
appears to be the warmest day of the period with southwesterly flow
aloft and westerly downslope winds at the surface. Models continue
to advertise scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over far
southwest Montana through the weekend associated with a northerly
push of monsoonal moisture. On Sunday afternoon a broad closed upper
low moving through western Canada will produce increasing winds as
its associated surface low deepens and moves through central and
eastern Montana. This could raise fire weather concerns over
southwest Mt where lower afternoon humidity is forecast. Temperatures
trend cooler to start next week as the Canadian low moves east of
the region. For now it appears the track of this system will keep its
associated precipitation north of our forecast area. However, a
secondary shortwave follows along the international border Tuesday
night producing chances for showers across much of North-central MT.
PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  85  56  89 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  55  81  55  85 /  40  10  10  10
HLN  60  89  60  92 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  54  88  52  90 /  30  10  20  10
WEY  46  79  43  80 /  30  20  10  10
DLN  52  87  53  89 /  20   0  10  10
HVR  57  83  58  88 /  20  10  10  10
LWT  55  79  55  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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