800
FXUS65 KVEF 160536
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1036 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty south winds today yield elevated to critical fire weather
  concerns across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona.

* Temperatures decrease throughout the work week with a gradual
  rebound over the weekend.

* An uptick in monsoonal moisture later in the week will result in
  increased chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

A shortwave trough dropping out of the PacNW and through the
northern Rockies has flattened the ridge that brought the dangerous
heat yesterday. As a result, temperatures today will top out a few
degrees lower, with the cooling trend continuing throughout the week
as 500mb heights fall and moisture increases. The uptick in PWATs
won`t be due to a typical Four Corners high, but rather a cutoff low
to our south. As the low slowly drifts northward, southeasterly flow
and moisture advection will increase, bringing shower and storm
chances to parts of the area. Currently, best odds are Thursday and
Friday from the Spring Mountains and points east where PoPs are 30-
70%, while activity farther west is more isolated. On either side of
these days, the potential for activity should be largely confined to
eastern Mohave County, with maybe an isolated shower/storm in the
Spring Mountains, Sierra, and/or eastern Lincoln County. All of the
typical convective hazards will be in play (flash flooding, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning), particularly on Thursday and Friday
when moisture is greatest. During the weekend, the low is forecast
to move through the Desert Southwest, resulting in westerly flow and
a decrease in moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southerly winds will persist through mid afternoon
Wednesday, with gusts to around 20KT expected to develop after
daybreak. Thereafter, winds shift to the southwest before 00Z,
with speeds remaining elevated and gusting to between 20-25KT
through late evening. VFR conditions will prevail with haze aloft
and operationally insignificant passing clouds around 15kft.
Temperatures Wednesday will exceed 100F between 20Z-04Z, peaking
at 104F around 01Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds generally remain
southerly to southwesterly across the region the next 24 hours,
with gusts diminishing overnight before picking up again by late
morning/early afternoon. Widespread gusts to around 20-25KT are
expected on at least an intermittent basis through Wednesday
evening. Exceptions include the Western Mojave Desert, where west
winds tonight shift to the east late morning, then back to the
west by late afternoon. Additionally, in the Owens Valley
including KBIH, there is low confidence in a brief period of
gusty westerly winds during early evening. VFR conditions prevail
with periodic midlevel clouds around 12-15kft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A system dropping out of the PacNW is inducing gusty
south winds across the area. With limited low-level moisture in
place, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. RH values in Mohave
and Clark counties (15-25%) are just high enough to preclude any
warnings, but Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Nye and Lincoln
counties until 10PM where drier conditions exist. As moisture influx
continues throughout the week and winds gradually subside, chances
for rapid fire spread will decrease. However, the potential for dry
lightning will increase.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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