Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 010454 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT STORM GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...FEW LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS STILL MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO JUST A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THERE IS STILL A SHOT IN THE VALLEYS. WILL MAKE A
FEW CHANGES TO THE MORNING LOWS AS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS ONE
DEGREE LOWER THAN THE FORECASTED LOW.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT. CIGS
AROUND 7-8K FEET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10K FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE UNDER 6KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS
DOWN TO 7-8K FEET. CIGS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10K FEET
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
320 PM PDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOHAVE...CLARK...LINCOLN AND EASTERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY OR COME
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES TO EASTERN ARIZONA. A
BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-FORM OVER NEVADA AND
CALIFORNIA LEADING TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST
ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE MOVING SOME MOISTURE IN MORE QUICKLY AND WE ARE GOING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY. THIS LARGE
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER SOME IN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW BUT IT MAY STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA EVEN INTO
SATURDAY...KEEPING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. AFTER
SEEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS BY
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK TO 5 PLUS DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
DISCUSSION...HARRISON

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



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