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000
FXUS65 KVEF 101710
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1010 AM PDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
USHERING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA CREST AND THE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY WEEKS END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION.
&&

.UPDATE...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A
BELT OF STANDING WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE VANISHING IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY
GRIDS BUT OVERALL THE INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ARE ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TERRAIN MAY INDUCE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 9 KNOTS
UNTIL 19-20Z BEFORE BEING OVERCOME BY PREVAILING WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...LOOK FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA 20
KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS 10-20 KTS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE WINDS MAY
GUST TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
NEVADA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TUESDAY. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE SIERRA CREST AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS ADJACENT TO
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SRN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT AHEAD OF OPEN TROUGH APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FEEDING IN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LEADING TO PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN NEVADA AROUND WINNEMUCCA. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TODAY. DID
LEAVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO NORTHERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING...THE WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST-WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOJAVE DESERT FROM
BARSTOW TO LAS VEGAS AND KINGMAN. NO ADVISORY NECESSARY TODAY AS
PEAK PRE-FRONTAL GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 40 MPH. LATEST RUNS OF OUR
HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE IN LAS VEGAS IN THE LATE
EVENING. THIS IS AN HOUR OR TWO SOONER THAN LAST NIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST CLEARING SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LAKE MEAD NRA
AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT OUR RUNNING FROM 6AM - 6PM TUESDAY. THE NORTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ON WEDNESDAY...SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FRONTSIDE OF
PAC NW RIDGE WILL PINCH OFF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS HOW FAR WEST LOW MAY
CLOSE OFF WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON THE FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD POOL MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE
SRN SIERRA CREST. FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS FOR THE MTNS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WILL MAKE TODAY THE WARMEST DAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER READINGS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT FOR A FEW STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AS THE LOW IS PARKED
OVERHEAD.  VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES
THE GROUND...WITH VIRGA THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
THAT OCCURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY AND NUDGES INLAND AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE HINTS AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF 80 DEGREES WEATHER IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY NEXT
WEEKEND AND NEAR 90 IN PARTS OF DEATH VALLEY AND THE ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING WITH THIS MORNINGS FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ466.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR NVZ021.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ101.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ002-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ229.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ527.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/OUTLER

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