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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230417
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARMUP
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...WIND HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS THE
MAJORITY OF WIND SENSORS AROUND THE REGION WERE INDICATING GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NORTHWEST
WINDS PUSHING DOWN THROUGH NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY BETWEEN 03Z AND
04Z...INDICATIVE OF THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA.
UPSTREAM WIND SENSORS INDICATE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE TRENDS ARE
REFLECTED IN THE GOING GRIDDED FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 PM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING AS
EXPECTED TODAY. SURFACE OBS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST
THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED ESMERALDA COUNTY AS OF 230
PM...AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL COME TO AN END. THE BEST
CLOUD ENHANCEMENTS WERE CONFINED TO WHITE PINE AND LANDER COUNTIES
AND AREAS FARTHER NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING...BUT
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AS THE PARENT
TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST LEAVING DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT STORM WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST...AND WINDS OVER OUR AREA WILL BE TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY AREAWIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
PEAK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A SHOT OF
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS INCREASE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY AGAIN RAISE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.  WIND
WISE THIS SYSTEM BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE SYSTEM BRINGING US
WINDY WEATHER TODAY...SO SIMILAR HEADLINES ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AS
THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

THINGS GET ESPECIALLY INTERESTING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DRAGS A 544DM CLOSED LOW RIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  WHILE NOT A PARTICULARLY WET
SYSTEM...IT IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING TODAY
AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND COLD AIR
ALOFT...THERE IS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE THAN TODAYS WEATHER MAKER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN ILLUSTRATE
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER...BUT I
LEFT THAT WORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.  BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS...BUT EVEN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY STANDS A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SNOW
LEVELS CRASHING TO AS LOW AS 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SOME HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
60S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY...AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LUCKILY...IF YOU`RE NOT A
FAN OF THE COOL TEMPS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
STARTING SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
06Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CAUSING RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION ISSUES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER LINCOLN COUNTY...WHERE
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/OUTLER

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