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000
FXUS65 KVEF 280449
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEVADA...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN. SOME LINGERING STRATUS PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN BUT THAT TOO WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERTS...WITH CLEAR SKIES IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING.

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND NUDGE THE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH. SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES GREATEST ACROSS ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE FEEL PATCHY FOG IS JUSTIFIED AND INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SLUG OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SKY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY
MORNING...WEAK BAGGY TROUGH UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND DEEPENS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT
CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN
HANDLING THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF HAS WEAK TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS NOT SUPPORTED BY MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS IN RAINY
AREAS ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE CWA...WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE VALLEY BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TERMINALS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 20K FEET.
WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 9KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM INYO COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA,
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...MORGAN

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