Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 102216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
216 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions will continue through the next
week as a strong ridge of high pressure pushes any significant
weather well to our north. Breezy conditions along the Colorado
River Valley will continue today into early this week, calming
slightly each day.

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday night.

No significant changes to the forecast. A Rex Blocking pattern will
dictate the weather through the week leading to continued
dryness, mild temperatures, and mostly sunny skies. A strong
ridge, with H5 heights above the 90th percentile, will center
itself over Nevada and persist through Thursday night before
retrograding offshore into the Pacific. This will allow
temperatures to remain well above normal and divert weather to our
north and into the Pacific Northwest. In addition, a weak trough
located over Baja California will remain along with the ridge and
direct high clouds northward into southern portions of the
region. On Friday, a fairly weak upper trough is progged to track
into the Pacific Northwest and then dig southward brushing
northern Nevada by Friday night. However, this feature is not very
impressive and continues to fluctuate between model runs. Current
runs of the ECMWF and GFS are trending toward weaker solutions,
which would lead to even less noticable change in the forecast. In
terms of wind, expect breezy conditions to continue along the
Colorado River, becoming lighter each day this week. Elsewhere,
light winds can be anticipated.

With the current forecast, the consecutive days without any rainfall
in Las Vegas (at McCarran) will continue to accumulate for at least
the next 10 days and possibly beyond that, according to the CPC 8-14
day outlook. To eclipse the current record of 101 days, conditions
must remain dry through Christmas Eve, which would raise the record
to 102 days.

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and mild conditions are expected to
continue through the next week. Significant drying at elevations
above 5000 feet is expected today into early this week, resulting
in very low RHs (well below zero) over the high terrain
(especially the Sierra). While winds do not appear to increase in
those areas during this period, these conditions will still
increase fire concerns with ample dry fuels into next week.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...No significant weather is forecast.
Light and variable winds through this afternoon and again Monday.
Typical drainage winds up to 8 kts tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Quiet, VFR weather forecast for all sites through
Monday. Northerly breezes will persist down the Colorado River
Valley with light and variable winds elsewhere. High clouds above 20
kft in southern areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



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