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000
FXUS65 KVEF 091049
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
249 AM PST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST COULD BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING ARE OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY WHERE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ESTIMATES -20 TO -30 DEGREES IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AS OF 2 AM WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
20S. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE
VALLEY WERE IN THE MID 20S WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HRS
AS COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTH. A WIND CHILL WARNING
CONTINUES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS IN THE LOWER DESERT AREAS THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING TODAY UNDER THE COLD...NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LAS
VEGAS TODAY...A DAYTIME HIGH OF 38 DEGREES IS FORECAST WHICH IS ONE
DEGREE ABOVE THE ALL TIME LOW MAX RECORD OF 37 DEGREES. STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH WIND PRONE AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AT
9 AM. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. THIS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY
DROP TO READINGS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN WHAT THIS
MORNING WILL BRING. AS A RESULT...A HARD FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL WARM OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES. SATELLITE
SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING. THIS LOW...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE AREA WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY AS THIS LOWS SHIFTS EAST...THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS LOW THEN EJECTS
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE IS BEING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO OVERALL LOOK FOR DRY
CONDITIONS CWA WIDE FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
MAY BE SEEN. MEANWHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WILL BE WATCHING THIS CLOSED LOW FORMATION THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TREATMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
TRENDING A EASTWARD MOVEMENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFF THE COAST. THUS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INCLUDE GHOST POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS BETTER MIXING
(WINDS)...INCREASE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TAKES PLACE DURING THE PERIOD. THUS NEAR NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME LIGHT BY EVENING. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS OF 40-45
KTS ARE LIKELY. THE SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TODAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NVZ016-017-
     020>022.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR NVZ021.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NVZ014-015.
AZ...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ003-036.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR AZZ002-036.
CA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ522>526.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ527.
&&

$$

SALMEN/JENSEN

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