Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230337
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
837 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRUSHING NORTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO
DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
&&

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NEVADA. WINDS HAVE
RESPONDED TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREAS...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL
ALSO REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ALSO SPARKED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
254 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WARMER 600-500MB LAYER HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA PROVIDING
A CAP THAT HAS MANAGED TO SUBDUE CONVECTION. A THUNDERSTORM MAY
MANAGE TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON IS OVER BUT THERE IS NO LONGER A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY. MEANWHILE...LOOKING TOWARD THE NORTH A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS TROUGH COULD BE SEEN DIGGING INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH A
DISCRETE BAND OF CONVECTION EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS OVER
WHITE PINE COUNTY NEAR ELY. THIS WILL PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY IMPACTING AREAS AROUND PIOCHE AND ECHO
CANYON/SPRING VALLEY STATE PARKS. THE TROUGH WILL STOP DIGGING
TONIGHT THEN PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES HAVE ALREADY RESPONDED TO THE DIGGING
TROUGH AND WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING THEN PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY BUT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER FLYING SOLO LAST NIGHT, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RETURNED BACK TO
A PROGNOSTICATION MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT HAD BEEN SHOWING ON
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PUTS IT IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH HOW IT HANDLES THE UPCOMING PATTERN.
THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WAS MORE SHALLOW WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE
GEM AND ECMWF SO THE FORECAST SHOWS A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. UNLESS
THIS TROUGH ENTRAINS ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO IT, IT SHOULD
PASS ON BY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCED WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS, BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT
IS SHOWN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD YIELD A WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGE
EITHER LOOKS TO GET STRETCHED OUT OR SHUNTED EAST BY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES ACROSS NORCAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. EITHER WAY, THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY GREAT SIGN FOR
MONSOON MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN BACK ON IN, SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS WITH A
LITTLE ECMWF AND MEX MOS MIXED ON IN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FAVORING RUNWAY CONFIG 1.


FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING. PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...STACHELSKI

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