Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 311230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M2 flare at 30/1216 UTC
from Region 2277 (N08E39, Fkc/beta-gamma).  Slight decay was observed in
the smaller intermediate spots of Regions 2277 and 2268 (S10W38,
Fkc/beta-gamma).  The rest of the spotted regions were relatively
stable.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
activity over the next three days (31 Jan-02 Feb). The most likely
source for any enhanced flare activity are Regions 2268 and 2277 due to
their large size and complex magnetic structures.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained slightly enhanced around 1 pfu, but was in decline after
31/0000 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (31 Jan-01 Feb)
with moderate to high levels possible on day three (02 Feb) due to
coronal hole influence.  There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reaching S1-Minor or higher levels for the forecast period
(31 Jan-02 Feb) as Region 2268 continues to rotate into a better
connected location.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be agitated over the period with
solar wind speeds ranging from 373 km/s to 469 km/s.  Total field ranged
from 1 nT to 8 nT while the bz component was between +/-7 nT.  Phi angle
continued to be oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (31 Jan-02 Feb).  Additional agitations in solar wind
parameters are expected late on day one through day two as a southern
polar coronal hole extension moves into geoeffective position.  Solar
wind speeds could potentially reach the 550 km/s to 650 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1) are expected on days one and
two (31 Jan-01 Feb) as the large extension off the southern crown polar
coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. By day three (02 Feb),
mostly quiet to active conditions are expected.


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