Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 091231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2429 (S19E25) decayed to plage and
new Region 2430 (S17E53, Hrx/alpha) remained stable during the period.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (09-11 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a peak flux of 21,590 pfu at 08/1605 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at moderate to high
levels, with a chance for very high levels, for the forecast period
(09-11 Oct) following the redistribution of particles following the
passage of the coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor)

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial
positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from a peak
of 770 km/s to around 640 km/s. Total field varied between 3 nT and 5
nT. The Bz component was predominately negative until approximately
08/1730 UTC then was variable between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented
in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels
through the forecast period as CH HSS effects persist. Solar wind
speeds are expected to slowly decline on days two and three (10-11 Sep)
as effects diminish.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G1(Minor) storm levels during
the period due to CH HSS activity.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with
G1-Minor storm levels likely for the remainder of day one (09 Oct) with
quiet to active levels on days two and three (10-11 Oct) due to waning
CH HSS effects. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.