Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 050030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Sep 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  The largest reportable event of the period
was a B4/Sf flare observed at 04/0518 UTC from Region 2409 (N06E11,
Cro/beta).  Regions 2409 and 2410 (S19E09, Cro/beta) were stable
throughout the period, along with newly-numbered Region 2411 (N14E64,
Hsx/alpha).

A filament eruption centered near S17E10 and estimated to be 15 degrees
in extent was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 04/1709-1854 UTC.
We are awaiting further coronagraph imagery to determine if there was a
subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event.  At
the time of this writing, no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for
C-class flare activity over the next three days (05-07 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two (05-06 Sep) as geomagnetic field
activity subsides.  Increased geomagnetic field activity on day three
(07 Sep) is expected to cause electron redistribution and flux levels
are expected to decrease to normal levels.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period (05-07 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind
speeds were steady at around 450 km/s until 04/1300 UTC when speeds
slowly increased to around 500 km/s.  IMF total field strength values
varied between 5-14 nT and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward
deflection of -10 nT mid-period.  The phi angle was steady in a positive
(away from the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to
near-background levels mid-to-late on day one (05 Sep) as CH HSS
influence subsides.  Ambient solar wind values are expected on day two
(06 Sep) under a nominal solar wind environment.  The onset of a pair of
positive polarity CH HSSs on day three (07 Sep) is expected to increase
solar wind speeds to around 500 km/s.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels
between 04/0000-0300 UTC with active levels observed through midday in
response to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Unsettled to
quiet levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period as CH
HSS influence weakened.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels early on day
one (05 Sep) due to continued CH HSS effects and subsequent substorming
in the early morning hours of the UTC day.  Quiet to unsettled levels
are likely for the remainder of day one and throughout day two (06 Sep)
as CH HSS influence weakens.  Field activity is expected to increase to
quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep) due to the onset of a pair
of positive polarity CH HSSs.



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