Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Apr 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2653 (S09E03, Hsx/alpha) was mostly
stable and inactive. Region 2651 (N11W41, Hsx/alpha) continued to
produce low level B-flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity over the next three days (27-29 Apr).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with
a peak flux of 66,500 pfu observed at 26/1735 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at very high
levels for the next two days (27-28 Apr) with the possibility of
returning to high levels by day three (29 Apr). No solar radiation
storms are expected during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were above background levels with wind speeds
gradually decreasing from speeds near 525 km/s to 450 km/s by periods
end. Total field strength ranged between 4 and 5 nT, while the Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Phi angle was
oriented in a negative sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced into
days one and two (27-28 Apr) as solar wind parameters gradually return
to near background levels in the wake of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Levels are expected to be at or near background by day three (29 Apr) as
the CH HSS transitions to an ambient solar wind regime.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
CH HSS influences will gradually subside over the next two days.
Active conditions are possible on day one (27 Apr) as solar wind
parameters continue to trend towards ambient, background levels.
Otherwise quiet to unsettled periods are anticipated. On day two (28
Apr) mostly quiet conditions are expected with occasional unsettled
periods. On day three (29 Apr) the solar wind environment is expected to
be at or near background levels, and the geomagnetic field is forecast
to be mostly quiet.



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