Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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140
FXXX12 KWNP 110031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a C1/Sf at 10/1522 UTC from
Region 2497 (N13E08, Eac/beta-gamma). Region 2497 grew further in size
and maintained a weak intermixing of polarities amongst the intermediate
spots, however the associated areas of magnetic shear were small and
appeared minor. The region also produced a few B-class and optical
flares. Region 2494 (S12W70, Dso/beta) decayed further and was inactive.
The remaining three spotted regions were inactive and underwent some
decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with C-class
flares likely on days one and two (11-12 Feb), decreasing to a chance
for C-class flares on day three (13 Feb). Region 2497 is likely to be
the primary contributor. Region 2494 will rotate to and beyond the W
limb on days two into three (12-13 Feb), allowing for decreasing
whole-disk flare probability; contingent upon no strengthening or
increased complexity within Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (11 Feb), before decreasing to normal
levels on days two and three (12-13 Feb) as a CIR followed by a CH HSS
redistributes electrons. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to continue at background levels all three days (11-13 Feb).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters were
indicative of decreased CME effects and a return towards more
background-like conditions. Solar wind speed varied between primarily
350-400 km/s, with a general trend of decreased speeds. The IMF strength
ranged mainly between 4 to 5 nT, while the Bz direction was in a
predominantly weak southward orientation. The phi angle was negative
(towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending towards
background speeds and IMF strength through most of day one (11 Feb),
before the IMF becomes slightly disturbed due to a pending solar sector
boundary change (SSBC) and an approaching CIR and CH HSS. Day two (12
Feb) is expected to see increasing wind speeds and a disturbed IMF due
to a passing CIR, followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (13
Feb) is expected to see waning solar wind speeds as CH HSS effects begin
to diminish later in the day.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before
becoming quiet after the 10/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(11 Feb) due to slightly elevated solar wind speeds and periods of
prolonged southward orientation. An expected SSBC later on day one may
also cause an unsettled geomagnetic response. An incoming CIR followed
by connection to the positive polarity CH HSS, is expected to cause a
few periods of active levels on day two (12 Feb), with mainly unsettled
to quiet conditions shortly afterwards. Day three (13 Feb) is expected
to experience quiet to unsettled levels as the CH HSS effects begin
waning.



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