Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 211231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Several C-level flares were produced by a
region just beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast near 12N,
including the largest of the period, a C4 event at 20/1251 UTC and a C1

Region 2146 (N10E14, Cso/beta) grew during the period and was also
responsible for two notable events.  The first was a C2/Sf flare at
20/2157 UTC.  This event was accompanied by a darkening to the west and
south in SDO/AIA 193 imagery.  At 20/2348 UTC, a very faint CME was
observed emerging from the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery with an
approximate plane of sky speed of 200-300 km/s.  The second event was a
B8/Sf flare from the same region at 21/0855 UTC.  Another darkening and
westward propagating wave was evident in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 21/0848
UTC.  Subsequent coronagraph imagery has not yet been received.

Regions 2148 (N05E34, Dac/beta) and 2143 (S06W33, Dai/beta) also grew
during the period, and Region 2148 was responsible for three low-level
C-flares.

The remaining regions were stable or decaying.  Additional analysis of
coronagraph imagery, and modeling if possible, will be undertaken to
ascertain any threat from the events described above.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (21-23
Aug), given the development of Region 2148 and the new region in the
northeast.  A slight chance for an M-class flare exists during the
period, with an increasing probability should the regions continue to
develop.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached moderate levels again while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for days one through three (21-23
Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated the
waning influence of the magnetic plasma cloud from the CME observed
leaving the Sun on 15 Aug. The total magnetic field began near 20 nT at
the beginning of the period and had declined to about 7 nT by 21/1000
UTC.  Bz remained positive until about 20/1849 UTC, after which it
fluctuated between positive and negative values, reaching a minimum of
-9 nT at 20/1854 UTC and ending near -5 nT.  Phi rotated slowly from
negative to a positive orientation.  Solar wind speed at ACE generally
remained between 360 and 310 km/s.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect waning CME
characteristics through day one (21 Aug). A return to mostly nominal
conditions is expected over days two and three (22-23 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet with isolated unsettled conditions are forecast for day one
and day two (21-22 Aug). A full recovery to predominantly quiet
conditions is forecast for day three (23 Aug).


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