Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Apr 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2535 (N07E16, Cao/beta) produced all of
the C-class activity during the period. Although weak, two flares were
associated with CMEs that became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0212
UTC and 28/0636 UTC. The CMEs were modeled and a weak glancing blow is
possible on 01 May. The other regions on the disk were relatively stable
and quiet.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days (29 Apr-01May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate
levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (29 Apr) and decrease to normal levels on
days two and three (30 Apr-01 May) due to electron redistribution from
expected CIR and CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was indicative of ambient background
conditions. Solar wind speed decreased steadily from near 450 km/s to
400 km/s. The IMF strength ranged predominantly from 2 to 5 nT, while
the Bz component was variable between +4/-2 nT. The phi angle was in a
mostly positive configuration, with a few isolated deviations into a
negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient background
levels on day one (29 Apr). Conditions are expected to become enhanced
later on day one due to an expected solar sector boundary crossing
(SSBC) and preliminary CIR effects. Day two (30 Apr) is likely to see a
further enhancement due to the anticipated CIR passage, followed by
solar wind speed increases due to connection with a negative polarity CH
HSS. Enhanced conditions are likely to continue into day three (01 May)
as CH HSS effects continue and a weak glancing blow CME arrives.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at quiet levels, but elevate
to unsettled to active levels later in the day in response to the
expected CIR. Day two (30 Apr) is likely to reach minor storm (G1-Minor)
levels due to the anticipated CIR and CH HSS effects. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected on day three (01 May) due to continued CH
HSS effects as well as a weak glancing blow from the 28 Apr CME.


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