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FXXX12 KWNP 030031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2152 (S16W12, Eac/beta-gamma)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 02/1315 UTC, the largest flare of the period,
as well as other low level C-class flares. This region continued to
grow, primarily in its intermediate spot area. Region 2153 (S10W38,
Dao/beta) also grew significantly during the period, mainly in its
leader spot area. New Region 2154 (S18E36, Cro/beta) also emerged
and was numbered during the period.

SDO AIA/304 imagery captured a 44 degree long filament, centered near
N32W14, erupting between 02/1300-1600 UTC. The eruption was also evident
in ground-based H-alpha imagery from the GONG facilities. There may be
an Earth-directed component to the subsequent CME; analysis is pending
the receipt of SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. One frame from STEREO-B
COR2 was received and suggests the ejecta may be directed well north.

A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery 02/0236 UTC emerging from
the east limb. Analysis suggested the CME mentioned in the earlier
discussion observed in C2 imagery at 01/2136 UTC was not a threat.

Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days
(03-05 Sep) as the active regions in the north and south beyond the east
limb begin to rotate onto the visible disk. Region 2152 also poses a
continued threat.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels,
reaching a peak flux value of 6110 pfu at 02/1620 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton flux were elevated in response to
yesterdays back-side flare and CME, but remained below alert
thresholds. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2 pfu at 02/2040Z.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels for the next three days (03-05 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below alert threshold
levels (S1-Minor) for the next three days (03-05 Sep) in the absence of
another significant flare.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was virtually
unchanged. Wind speed continued to hover in the low to mid 400 km/s
range. Phi remained positive.  Bz ranged between about 6 and -6 nT
while Bt was remained under 7 nT.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (03-05 Sep) with solar wind speed expected to remain in the
375-475 km/s range.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with minor storm
levels observed at high latitudes.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with a chance for active conditions (Below G1-Minor) over the next three
days (03-05 Sep) in response to a high speed solar wind stream
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