Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 011230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. The largest event of the
period was a B8/Sf flare at 01/0131 UTC from Region 2393 (N17E28,
Cao/beta). Slight decay was observed in the trailer portion of the
region. Region 2390 (S14W73, Cao/beta) exhibited trailer spot
consolidation. The rest of the spotted regions were stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (01-03 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (01 Aug) with moderate to high levels
expected on days two and three (02-03 Aug) due to high speed winds
associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below
S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained elevated over the period due to a
geoeffective negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar wind speed gradually increased from approximately 460 km/s early
in the period to an average of about 575 km/s with a maximum of 655 km/s
observed at 01/0706 UTC. Total field decreased from 12 nT to 5 nT while
the Bz component ranged from +11 nT to -10 nT. Phi angle remained in a
predominantly negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain at elevated levels
through the period (01-03 Aug) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
levels (G1-Minor) on day one (01 Aug) due to CH HSS influence. Unsettled
to active levels are expected on day two (02 Aug) with mostly
unsettled levels on day three (03 Aug) as the high speed stream
persists.



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