Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels.  Very little flare activity
occurred on the visible disk during the period, with background levels
near the B5 level. Region 2172 (S12E51, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was the
only spot group to show any growth, increasing in overall area from 320
millionths to 410 millionths. The region also exhibited signs of
magnetic mixing in its intermediate spots as well as a weak delta
configuration in the leader spot area.

Analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the
long-duration C5 flare from the plage region near old Region 2166
(N11W62, plage), determined the majority of the ejecta was well off the
Sun/Earth plane with little to no impacts expected.

Two large CMEs were observed in Lasco C2 imagery at 21/0624 UTC and 0848
UTC, respectively. These CMEs were also observed in Lasco C3 and Stereo
Behind imagery as well, near the same times. Initial analysis indicted
both were from regions on the far side of the Sun, but additional
analysis will be accomplished to determine exact origins as well as any
impacts possible.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare
(R3-Strong or greater) for the next three days (22-24 Sep).  Region 2172
is the most likely source for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced, seeing a peak value of 1.9 pfu, but was well below the S1
Minor alert threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (22-24 Sep), barring any significant flare activity. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at
normal to moderate levels over the next three days (22-24 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the waning influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed
continued to decrease throughout the period, declining from a beginning
speed near 560 km/s to end of period values just over 420 km/s. Total
field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT through the reporting period. IMF Bz was
variable between +5 nT and -2 for the first half of the day, before
becoming mostly negative following a solar sector boundary crossing
(SSBC) just after 22/0200 UTC. Phi angle remained in a mostly negative
(towards) sector  until just after 22/0200 UTC when the aforementioned
sector boundary crossing occurred. It has remained in a positive (away)
orientation since.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decline towards
nominal levels through early on day one (22 Sep). By day two (23 Sep),
enhancements of the solar wind environment are possible due to potential
activity associated with the SSBC, followed by a co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are
expected to remain enhanced through day three (24 Sep) as CH HSS effects
continue.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated
unsettled period from 22/0300-0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with possible
isolated unsettled periods on day one (22 Sep).  Quiet to unsettled
periods with a chance for active periods are expected for days two
through three (23-24 Sep) due to potential activity associated with a
SSBC followed by a CIR in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.