Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 191230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Jan 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Slight decay was observed in Region 2696
(S13W22, Bxo/beta).  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (19-21 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (19 Jan), and normal levels on days two and
three (20-21 Jan) due to CH HSS influences.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters increased slightly due to a SSBC followed by the
likely beginning of a CIR enhancement.  At approximately 18/1705 UTC, a
sector boundary change from a positive (away) sector to a negative
(towards) sector occurred.  After 18/2000 UTC, total field began to
increase from 1 nT to 9 nT while the phi angle deflected southward to -6
nT.  Solar wind speed increased beginning after 18/2200 UTC from
approximately 315 km/s to a maximum of 381 km/s at 19/0326 UTC before
decreasing to near 350 km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels for day one
(19 Jan).  A further CIR enhancement and subsequent CH HSS is expected
on day two (20 Jan) and persist through day three (21 Jan).  Solar wind
speeds are expected to be near 550-575 km/s, as observed in STEREO A
PLASTIC data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(19 Jan). Day two (20 Jan) is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated periods of active levels due to CIR/CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to dominate on day three
(21 Jan) with a chance for isolated active levels due to persisting CH
HSS influences.



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