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FXXX12 KWNP 250031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Nov 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to very low levels with no observable flare
activity detected. Region 2457 (N12E11, Cao/beta-gamma) remained the
most complex region on the disk, but exhibited decay in its intermediate
and leader spots. Region 2458 (N10E46, Dao/beta) underwent separation
and areal growth in its leader spot and rudimentary penumbral growth
around the trailer spot. Region 2454 (N14W82, Cao/beta) decreased in
number of spots and areal coverage as it approached the west limb. New
Region 2459 (N05E76, Cao/beta) was numbered this period.

Between 24/1130-1530 UTC, SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery observed a 20
degree long eruption, centered near S10W00, along a NW to SE oriented
filament channel. Material was observed moving in a SE direction along
the face of the disk. At the time of this writing, no coronal mass
ejection was observed in limited coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1 to R2 - Minor to Moderate) Radio Blackouts for days
one through three (25-27 Nov).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Nov). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft remained at nominal
levels. Wind speeds ranged between 265 km/s to near 375 km/s. Total
field strength (Bt) was steady at 3-4 nT while the Bz component did not
vary much beyond +/- 2 nT. The phi angle was in a steady negative
(towards the Sun) orientation throughout the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced early on day one
(25 Nov) through day two (26 Nov) with the onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By day three (27 Nov), wind
parameters are expected to remained enhanced as a transition from a
positive to a negative CH HSS occurs.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (25 Nov) with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (26
Nov) is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels as positive polarity
CH HSS influence wanes. Continued quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on day three (27 Nov) as a transition to a negative polarity CH HSS
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