Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1100 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...FINAL

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL...

THIS IS THE SIXTH AND FINAL IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE
BLACKSBURG HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE HSA INCLUDES ALL OR
PARTS OF THE JAMES...ROANOKE...UPPER YADKIN...GREENBRIER...NEW
...CLINCH AND HOLSTON RIVER BASINS IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

THESE STATEMENTS PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS FACTORS. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE
PERIOD THROUGH APRIL 3 2014.

FOR THE BLACKSBURG HSA THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD IS CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL. NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENTS ARE FORECAST IN THE NEXT WEEK BUT AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN WEEK TWO OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
WARRANTS THE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...IT IS HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.

CURRENT FLOODING...

NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...

MARCH PRECIPITATION TO DATE IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HSA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DAN RIVER BASIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER BASIN WHERE AMOUNTS ARE CLOSE
TO OR ABOVE AVERAGE. MARCH PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE DRIEST
AREAS IN THE UPPER JAMES AND TENNESSEE RIVER WATERSHEDS.
PARTS OF THESE BASINS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF MARCH
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 3.53 INCHES
OR 117 PERCENT OF THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE. THE WINTER AS A WHOLE
WAS ALSO SOMEWHAT WETTER THAN NORMAL WITH 11.67 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE NETWORK OF COOP AND ASOS STATIONS. THIS IS ALMOST 2 INCHES
MORE THAN THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF 9.65 INCHES.

FALL 2013 (SEP-NOV) PRECIPITATION

FALL WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM ABOUT 50 TO
75 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL NORMAL.

DROUGHT..

NONE.

SNOW COVER..

SNOW COVER IS BASICALLY INSIGNIFICANT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW REMAINING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.

PLEASE SEE WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW
COVER.

RIVER ICE...

RIVER ICE IS NON-EXISTENT.

STREAMFLOW...

STREAMS ARE RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL FLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN VIRGINIA WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.

FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS SEE THE
USGS WATERWATCH SITE BELOW.

HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH

SOIL MOISTURE...

THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE RANKINGS SHOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS NOW EXIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM CPC: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON EXPERIMENTAL SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
THE HSA. A POCKET OF DRIER CONDITIONS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

THIS DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.HYDRO.WASHINGTON.EDU/FORECAST/MONITOR/INDEX.SHTML

RESERVOIRS...

ALL MAJOR RESERVOIRS SERVING THE HSA REMAIN AT OR ABOVE GUIDE
CURVES AND/OR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
HSA. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE MODEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.50 INCHES. IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD INCREASE.

LONG TERM OUTLOOKS (6-10 AND 8-14 DAY) FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER VALID THROUGH MARCH 29 AND APRIL 2
SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

REPEATING THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK: NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED UPDATE OF THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK FOR 2014. AN OPTIONAL OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED APRIL 3
IF CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG

PC


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