Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

...SPRING RAINS AND MELTING SNOWPACK WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MT. AS A RESULT...HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WILL
START TO MELT.

ADDITIONALLY...TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY FROM LINCOLN
NORTHWARD THROUGH GLACIER PARK...TO THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE ABOUT 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST MT...FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUTTE TO BOZEMAN...WHERE
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NEAR THE MT/ID BORDER
IN THE MONIDA/WEST YELLOWSTONE AREAS...THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR ABOUT 0.50 INCHES.

AS OF MAY 2...THE OVERALL AVERAGE OF WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK IS ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE...WITH SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING AN ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH RANGING FROM A FEW FEET
DEEP TO OVER 6 FEET DEEP.

AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE CURRENT MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AND THE
FORECASTED RAINFALL...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON ANY OF THE BIGGER
STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS EVENT.

HOWEVER...SHOULD SOME AREAS RECEIVE A BIT HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER
THIS WEEK THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED...SOME MINOR PROBLEMS COULD
DEVELOP ON SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS THAT FLOW OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ONE INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL. THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE SMALL CREEKS EXCEEDING
BANKFULL...AND POSSIBLY CAUSING MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS OR
AGRICULTURAL LAND NEXT TO THE SMALL STREAMS OR CREEKS.

FOR THOSE PLANNING RECREATION ON AREA WATERWAYS LATER THIS WEEK AND
INTO THIS WEEKEND...BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS AND HIGHER
STREAM FLOWS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.

$$



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