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FNUS28 KWNS 272046
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VALID 291200Z - 051200Z

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA ON
D4/FRI. ATTENDANT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT ITS BASE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN CA...NWRN
NV...AND SERN ORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON D5/SAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST. ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE STRENGTH...LOCATION...AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE LEADS TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY PROBABILITIES WITH THIS
FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 09/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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