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593
FNUS28 KWNS 281934
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

A strong mid-level storm system over the Southern Plains will
gradually lift northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
western Great Lakes through D5/Tue, while spreading a cyclonically
oriented belt of intense mid-level flow from the Plains into much of
the Eastern U.S.  As this wave lifts out of the central part of the
country, a ridge will set up in the western U.S. and a generally
lower-amplitude, positive-tilt system will migrate southeastward
across the Plains.

At the surface, a low near western Missouri at the beginning of the
forecast period will lift northward into Wisconsin through D5/Tue
while occluding.  This will send a cool airmass southward into lower
elevations of the Great Plains, while maintaining a favorable
pressure gradient for enhanced surface flow and areas of elevated
fire weather conditions in the southern Rockies and adjacent areas
from D3/Sun through D4/Mon.  Another surface low will organize in
west Texas around the D5/Tue time period, elevating fire weather
concerns in the southern Rockies during that time period.

...D3/Sun through D4/Mon - Portions of southern New Mexico into
south Texas...
A favorable surface pattern will set up for a broad area of 10-20
mph northwesterly surface flow to develop initially from southern
New Mexico southeastward along the Rio Grande Valley on D3/Sun and
again on D4/Mon.  This flow will occur within a dry airmass of
continental origin, with insolation fostering surface temperatures
from the 60s (in NM) to the mid 80s (in deep south Texas) amidst
critically low RH values.  A similar regime will develop farther
west (in west Texas and southern NM) on D4/Mon, although with a more
focused area of elevated fire weather conditions coincident with dry
fuels, breezy surface winds, and low RH.

...D5/Tue - Much of New Mexico and eastern Arizona...
Dry, northwesterly low-level flow will develop in this region to the
west of a surface low organizing over the Texas South Plains during
the period.  As this occurs, insolation and mixing processes will
foster 70-80 degree F surface temperatures amidst critically low RH
values (especially in southern New Mexico and lower elevations of
the region).  This, in conjunction with dry fuels, supports low
(40%) probabilities critical fire weather conditions occurring in
this area during D5/Tue afternoon.

..Cook.. 04/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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