Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 281934
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
A strong mid-level storm system over the Southern Plains will
gradually lift northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
western Great Lakes through D5/Tue, while spreading a cyclonically
oriented belt of intense mid-level flow from the Plains into much of
the Eastern U.S. As this wave lifts out of the central part of the
country, a ridge will set up in the western U.S. and a generally
lower-amplitude, positive-tilt system will migrate southeastward
across the Plains.
At the surface, a low near western Missouri at the beginning of the
forecast period will lift northward into Wisconsin through D5/Tue
while occluding. This will send a cool airmass southward into lower
elevations of the Great Plains, while maintaining a favorable
pressure gradient for enhanced surface flow and areas of elevated
fire weather conditions in the southern Rockies and adjacent areas
from D3/Sun through D4/Mon. Another surface low will organize in
west Texas around the D5/Tue time period, elevating fire weather
concerns in the southern Rockies during that time period.
...D3/Sun through D4/Mon - Portions of southern New Mexico into
A favorable surface pattern will set up for a broad area of 10-20
mph northwesterly surface flow to develop initially from southern
New Mexico southeastward along the Rio Grande Valley on D3/Sun and
again on D4/Mon. This flow will occur within a dry airmass of
continental origin, with insolation fostering surface temperatures
from the 60s (in NM) to the mid 80s (in deep south Texas) amidst
critically low RH values. A similar regime will develop farther
west (in west Texas and southern NM) on D4/Mon, although with a more
focused area of elevated fire weather conditions coincident with dry
fuels, breezy surface winds, and low RH.
...D5/Tue - Much of New Mexico and eastern Arizona...
Dry, northwesterly low-level flow will develop in this region to the
west of a surface low organizing over the Texas South Plains during
the period. As this occurs, insolation and mixing processes will
foster 70-80 degree F surface temperatures amidst critically low RH
values (especially in southern New Mexico and lower elevations of
the region). This, in conjunction with dry fuels, supports low
(40%) probabilities critical fire weather conditions occurring in
this area during D5/Tue afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...