Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
FNUS28 KWNS 152026

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

A very active synoptic pattern will evolve over the next several
days, with numerous disturbances emanating from a developing
longwave trough over the West.  The key feature of interest for this
forecast remains a mid-level wave that will evolve from the Four
Corners region into the southern Plains around the D5/Thu through
D7/Sat period.  As this trough ejects, low-level cyclogenesis will
become pronounced in Kansas and Oklahoma, setting up a favorable
downslope regime for elevated atmospheric fire weather conditions
over west/central Texas and far eastern New Mexico during that time
period.  While confidence in this scenario has increased, questions
about fuel receptiveness remain given ongoing heavy wetting
precipitation at the time of this outlook issuance (and more
precipitation anticipated in parts of the region on Monday).
Furthermore, critical RH is not indicated in model guidance in most
areas, which further lends some uncertainty on the scenario despite
the favorable synoptic pattern.  Probabilities remain too low to
introduce highlights in this forecast, although 40 percent/elevated
areas may be needed eventually.

..Cook.. 01/15/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.