Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 031952
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

VALID 051200Z - 111200Z

AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY
3/MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS BY DAY 4/TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7/FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM DAY 5/WEDNESDAY INTO DAY
6/THURSDAY...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND DAY 7/FRIDAY.
POTENTIALLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

...DAY 5/WEDNESDAY - DAY 6/THURSDAY: PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAVORABLE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CA BEGINNING ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING
INTO DAY 6/THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BECOME OVERLY
WARM EITHER AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
LOWERED RH VALUES. REGARDLESS...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN DRYING FUELS...AND 40
PERCENT/MARGINAL AREAS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN A LATER OUTLOOK
IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

..GLEASON.. 12/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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