Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 231625
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Sustained southwesterly winds around 20-25 mph, with gusts to 35-40
mph, are still anticipated across the region this afternoon.
Regional observations already show winds near 20 mph and gusts near
30 mph across the northern TX panhandle. RH values are also still
expect to drop into the upper teens and low 20s as downslope effects
aid in mixing/warming the boundary-layer. Recent fuel guidance
suggests some drying of the finer fuels is likely but larger fuels
and ERC values will remain generally unfavorable. Given the modest
fuels and generally marginal meteorological conditions, widespread
and/or long-duration critical fire weather conditions are not
anticipated. Even so, elevated fire weather conditions are
anticipated across a large portion of the southern High Plains.

..Mosier.. 01/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

...Synopsis...
As a strong low pressure system moves northeastward from the
Southeast into the Mid Atlantic today, a deep upper trough over the
West will begin to progress eastward. In response to the upper
trough, a surface low will deepen over the central High Plains,
while another surface low drops southward off of the California
coast.

...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Relatively strong low-level southwesterly flow is expected to
develop across the southern High Plains this afternoon, south of the
deepening surface low. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with higher
gusts, are likely across much of eastern NM and west TX. Downslope
flow will result in above-normal temperatures, with minimum RH
values expected to drop into the 15-20 percent range. This wind/RH
combination will result in an elevated fire weather threat.
Uncertainty regarding the potential for a sufficient duration of
critical RH, combined with some lingering uncertainty regarding
fuels (given recent precipitation across the area), precludes any
upgrade at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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