Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 221623

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


Morning observations and latest numerical guidance support the
ongoing forecast. No changes necessary.

..Marsh.. 05/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Large cyclone currently centered over northwest Ontario will expand
throughout the period, encouraged by several shortwave troughs
rotating through its eastern and western periphery. One such
shortwave trough is expected to move through the northern Plains and
central Plains. Cold airmass associated with this southward
progressing shortwave trough will more through much of the region
with the attendant cold front likely stretching from the upper MS
Valley southwestward to the central High Plains by 00Z Tuesday.
Elsewhere, widespread shower and thunderstorms are anticipated
across much of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic while upper ridging
builds across the West Coast.

...Northwest/north-central NM...
Surface pressure gradient will increase across the region ahead of
the approaching cold front. This tightened surface pressure gradient
coupled with modest northwesterly flow aloft will foster some breezy
conditions (i.e. sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph) this
afternoon. Additionally, despite below-average temperatures, deep
boundary-layer mixing amidst the antecedent dry conditions will
support afternoon RH values in the teens. This mix of breezy winds
and low RH will result in some locally elevated fire weather
conditions but generally unreceptive fuels and short duration of
these conditions will preclude a higher fire weather threat.

...Please see for graphic product...

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