Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 010826
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN CONUS TO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SW
STATES WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE EWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SUBSIDENT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE IMPULSE WILL /1/ ENHANCE SFC
RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND /2/ PROMOTE
AN INFLUX OF DEEP DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W-CNTRL/SWRN CONUS.

...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WRN/SWRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIME OF CNTRL-GREAT-BASIN SFC RIDGING WILL MODESTLY ENHANCE NLY TO
ELY SFC WINDS ALONG THE CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. RELATED
DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-AIDED WARMING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS IN
MANY AREAS...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR LOCATIONS FROM ERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EWD ACROSS VENTURA
COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND SWRN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS
WHERE THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY
TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NELY TO ELY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH
FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 8-15 PERCENT
AMIDST DRY FUELS IN THESE AREAS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...AS RH VALUES REMAIN LOW. LOCALIZED BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
REINFORCED. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR STRONG
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS TOO LIMITED FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION...IN
THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE D1/WED
PERIOD. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED FOR D1/WED.

ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A
SPOTTY/BRIEF/MARGINAL BASIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HILLS
SURROUNDING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS SWD TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CA...WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 MPH -- WITHOUT A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT -- TO MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL
FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 10/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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