Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 240633
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper pattern will become slightly more progressive across the
western/central CONUS on Day 2/Monday as a persistent upper
trough/low centered over the Great Basin lifts northeastward into
the northern Plains and adjacent Canadian provinces. Modestly
enhanced (35-40 kt) northerly mid-level winds are forecast to remain
over much of CA on the back side of the upper trough. At the
surface, high pressure should remain over the Great Basin and
northern/central Rockies through the period, which will support a
continued weak to locally moderate offshore wind event across
portions of southern CA.

...Portions of the Sacramento Valley and Adjacent Coastal Ranges of
Northern CA...
Similar to Day 1/Sunday, a modest increase in northerly surface
winds will likely occur Monday afternoon across portions of the
Sacramento Valley and adjacent Coastal Ranges of northern CA as
enhanced winds at mid levels reach the surface through diurnal
mixing processes. Sustained winds up to 15 mph appear probable, with
stronger gusts occurring at higher elevations. RH values will once
again become lowered generally into the 10-20% range given an
antecedent dry low-level airmass and diurnal heating. These forecast
meteorological conditions combined with continued dry fuels support
an elevated designation across this region.

...Portions of Southern CA...
Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing across parts
of southern CA early Monday morning when the surface pressure
gradient will be maximized. Strong/gusty northerly to northeasterly
winds of 15-20 mph should weaken slightly through the day as the
surface pressure gradient relaxes somewhat. But, these winds should
strengthen once again late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
RH values will likely remain lowered through much of the period
owing to downslope warming/drying effects, and overnight RH recovery
is forecast to remain poor. With fuels continuing to dry across this
region, an elevated area has been introduced across portions of
southern CA where confidence is greatest in a combination of locally
strong/gusty winds overlapping RH values lowered into the 15-20%
range. The lack of an even stronger forecast surface pressure
gradient and related winds precludes a critical designation at this
time.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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