Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 201935
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

Only minor changes have been made to the periphery of the elevated
areas.

...Front range of Colorado...
Latest guidance suggests that relative humidity will fall into the
low teens, with the potential for single digits. Thus, despite
modest surface winds, have pulled the elevated farther south.

...Southwest Kansas northeast to south-central Nebraska...
Modest southwest winds will combine with a dry airmass to support
elevated fire-weather conditions. This forecast expands the initial
elevated area to the southwest and northeast to better align with
the belt of relatively enhanced southwest surface flow.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel wind-speed maximum is forecast to extend from portions of
coastal CA to the Central States, while a trough approaches northern
and central parts of the West Coast from the eastern Pacific. Lee
surface troughing will become established over portions of the
northern and central High Plains. These features will be associated
with two Elevated fire-weather areas subsequently discussed, while
recent precipitation between and north of these areas may limit the
fire-weather risk.

...Portions of southeast WY, north-central/northeast CO, western
NE...
Enhanced downslope winds extending off the central Rockies will
support warming/drying over the adjacent High Plains. Westerly winds
of 15-25 mph are forecast to combine with RH around 12-20 percent in
support of elevated to borderline-critical fire-weather conditions.
At this time, the strongest winds are forecast to remain displaced
to the north of the lowest RH, minimizing the overlap of critically
strong winds and RH and precluding Critical designation.

...Portions of western/central KS into south-central NE...
A relatively enhanced low-level pressure gradient east of the lee
trough is forecast to support southwesterly surface winds of 15-18
mph. With a warm air mass in place and a dearth of moisture return,
vertical mixing will encourage RH values falling to around 12-20
percent. While elevated fire-weather conditions are expected,
present indications are that critically strong winds will be
unlikely.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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