Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 291731
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

AN EWD EXPANSION TO THE ELEVATED AREA FOR D2/MON WAS MADE ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...AS LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF STRONG/GUSTY WLY TO NWLY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY REDUCED RH VALUES MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS MON AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS AREA. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ANY MORE THAN BRIEF...
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS OCCURRING FOR ANY PORTION OF THE
ELEVATED AREA PRECLUDES THE ADDITION OF A CRITICAL AREA WITH THIS
UPDATE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

..GLEASON.. 03/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE SEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
FARTHER W...UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS RIDGING BUILD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...
DESPITE DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS -- SWLY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND NWLY ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY -- DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND AID IN
DROPPING RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 25 MPH AROUND THE
NEB/IA BORDER AND NEAR 20 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RESULTING JUXTAPOSITION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTENDING
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. SOME LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDES A THREAT DELINEATION WITH
THIS FORECAST.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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